Thursday, June 21, 2012

Weekly Jobless Claims -- Four-Week Moving Average is Highest Since December 3, 2011

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

First time unemployment claims benefits: 387,000
Last week revised upward by 3,000. Had the revision not been made, this would have been a thousand higher; as it is, it is 2,000 less than last week, at least if I understood Mr Santelli correctly.
Four-week moving average is highest since week ending December 3, 2011. 

This confirms the recovery is over. We had dropped to 370,000 some time ago and everyone was excited, suggesting that jobs were coming back. But the details suggested otherwise, and now it's pretty obvious.

Quotes from an educator/past Fed member who is a guest on CNBC:
  • "bolster our mood that the labor market is softening" -- softening? -- that's putting it mildly
  • "this looks like a trend" -- well, yeah
  • "at this point, it almost doesn't matter that we recognize that we're headed into a negative period; there's not much else the Fed can do"
  • "raising taxes right now not a good idea" -- yup
  • "everything (economic data points) is moving in the wrong direction right now"
 Quotes from others on CNBC:
  • "increasingly, oil is coming down due to global economy"
  • "more and more are talking about a global recession" 
Elsewhere, good news -- green energy stimulus funds created more jobs than expected
  • $9 billion stimulus funds for green energy jobs (wind and solar)
  • 910 "direct" new jobs created ($9.8 million per job created/about the cost of a Bakken well)
  • 4,600 "indirect" new jobs created (about $1.9 million per job created)
So, at least some good news.

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Other good news: mortgage rate drops to 3.66%. Lowest rate in history. Too bad no one can afford a house when unemployed.

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