Thursday, April 26, 2012

Gasoline Engines Vs Coal-Powered EVs -- The Wall Street Journal

From the print edition of the WSJ: engineers cast wary eye on role of electrics (no link; from the print edition, but googling will probably get you to it).

Data points:
  • from a recent technology meeting in Detroit
  • senior auto executives offered a sharply skeptical view of EVs -- suggesting they will play a marginal role in the US market
  • will most likely remain confined to less than 10% of the market through 2025
  • "By 2025, we wee battery electric vehicles still with too long a payback, and inadequate range," attributed to vice president for powertrain engineering at Ford Motor.
  • GM chartist: comparing the amount of energy delivered by a given volume or mas of fuel -- lithium-ion batteries -- used by the Chevy Volt -- were ranked close to zero compared with gasoline and diesel fuels, which delivered the most energy for the least amount of weight and cost to the consumer
Chrysler data points:
  • conventional, gasoline-fueled internal combustion engine and transmission: 10% of cost of a $30,000 car, or about $3,000
  • Ford said the battery for the electric Ford Focus  cost $12,000 to $15,000 for a car that is priced at about $40,000, about $15,000 more than a petroleum-fueled Focus
Honda data point:
  • by 2025, a customer buying a plug-in hybrid could wait 10 years to recover the added upfront costs compared to a 2025 conventional engine
Other data points:
  • automobile executive focused on meeting new CAFE standards (54.4 mpg by 2025)
Two comments:
  • they are still talking about lithium batteries; newer technology could change batteries
  • the niche for EVs will likely grow, albeit a small niche

3 comments:

  1. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTM2NzM3fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

    CAT seemed excited responding to Q on nat gas during Q1 conf call.

    Also, See Q19 here.

    Anon 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I love Q&A in these formal presentations. I think, of the Bakken companies, WLL has the most informative Q&A in their corporate presentations.

      I wonder if you didn't mean an earlier question regarding natural gas? My hunch is that Bakken and the unconventional shale oil stories will be the ENERGY STORY of 2007 - 2017.

      My hunch is that the ENERGY STORY of 2017 - 2027 will be natural gas.

      Delete
    2. Yes. Q10?

      Anon 1

      Delete

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