- 2006: 422
- 2007: 497
- 2008: 953
- 2009: 628
- 2010: 1,682
- 2011: 1,712 (estimate based on July 25, 2011, data).
Be that as it may, my database shows that 49 permits issued in 2010 were canceled or have expired.
For 2010, I have data for 977 permits (off confidential list but no data; total depth reached; plugged or producing, IP). That means there are still 705 permits that are still outstanding, either drilled and on the confidential list, or not even spudded yet. That's more than all the permits issued in 2009, 2007, or 2006.
I wonder how many of these permitted leases will reach expiration dates before the operator can drill. This could get very interesting.
ReplyDeleteI used to argue that the operators in the Bakken are smart enough to keep ahead of this (expiring permits), but a) too many folks smarter than I am take the opposite view; and, b) the 2010-2011 winter and the 2011 spring flooding set back the drilling schedules. So, I may lose the argument yet.
ReplyDeleteOil men have two commonalities: a) they keep drilling hoping to hit the big one; and, b) they like to trade.
They like to deal and trade as much as they like to drill.
So, assuming the prevailing assumption holds true (permits start expiring), we should expect to see lots of wheeling and dealing in 2012.
The "poorer" acreage will go first, but operators will hang on to their "better" acreage at all costs.
And cash flow needs for some companies may drive buyouts. Eight-million-dollar wells require lots of cash flow. Look at yet another stock offering from KOG.
Maybe more on this issue (expiring permits) later.