Locator: 49863SAMSUNG.
Earnings tomorrow: CAT in the morning; AAPL in the afternoon.
Today:
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The Third Man
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Locator: 49862B.
Black swans:
- government shutdown / political anxiety;
- Iran: US response goes poorly;
- AI: too much debt in the short term spooks investors;
- state deficit: California -- $18 billion short term; $35 billion medium term;
- population: 40 million
- city deficit: NYC -- just coming out now -- "severe fiscal crisis" -- state comptroller; $2.2 billion for current year (2026) ballooning to over $10 billion in FY2027;
- population: 10 million but no "Silicon Valley";
- rest of state won't support Mamdani;
- wealthy won't be happy with Mamdani's plans to increase taxes on wealthy;
Iran: rial collapses. Link here.
US economy: the Fed holds steady --
- takeaway: "what, me worry?"
- photo-op: watching paint dry
- overall, a stronger forecast than in the past -- economy gets stronger and stronger;
- "We'll let the private sector worry about the employment / unemployment rate; we're happy with what we see."
GDP: 4Q25 -- estimate -- last estimate -- 5.4% -- link here.
- despite government shut-down;
- historically high tariffs; "a trade war that we've not had in 100 years" -- Fed chairman Jay Powell
- current GDP has not yet factored in:
- huge tax refund expectations
- decreased taxes going forward
- AI build out
- end of EV mandates
Which tech stock should we look at? Spin the wheel: Micron --
IBM after reporting earnings:
Random factoid: across the US --
- Target: Super Targets -- 200
- Walmart: Walmart Supercenters -- 3,600
- in addition Walmart has drones; nothing suggests Target ready to start adding drones.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: breaks through $63 -- time to watch pizza deliveries to the Pentagon. Now trading at $63.21.
Active rigs: 27.
No new permits.
Four permits renewed:
- Murex (2): a Michael Douglas permit and a Patricia Ann permit; the former in Beaver Lodge (Williams County); the latter in West Bank (Williams County)
- XTO (2): two Satter 24X wells, Siverston oil field (McKenzie County.
One producing well (a Duc) reported as completed:
- 41849, 959, EOG, Ross 39-1606H, Mountrail County;
State Shark -- January 28, 2028
Locator: 49861SHARK.
Posted for Sophia's benefit.
Maryland: I did not know Maryland has a state shark but this headline suggests it does .... link here.
Cramer's "First Ten Minutes" -- Melania Will Ring NYSE Bell Today -- Then, "First Take" -- January 28, 2026
Locator: 49860CRAMER.
"Trump Accounts" summit. Wow. This is a snowball rolling downhill. Employers, others, will now match Trump!
"Tech story today is incredible" -- Carl Q -- CNBC. I don't hear that often. Or, often-enough.
China gives nod to ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent to buy Nvidia's high-end GPUs. Memory demand will be off the chart today.
Lots of talk with regard to Texas Instruments.
Money coming into Anthropic and OpenAI is incredible. Neither publicly traded. Just a matter of time.
Hey, what happened to circular financing?
It's all about the large data center build out.
Amazon to cut 16,000 jobs. Getting too much attention.
S&P 500 hits 7000 for the first time.
Three major indices open green.
Look at the amount of resource material the three guys have on their desks. These are not "news readers."
Right now, front and center: Melania.
First lady to ring NYSE bell! Another "presidential" first. Although Hillary has rung the NYSE bell numerous times, no evidence that she ever rung it was the First Lady.
Starbucks up 5% despite the numbers and the guidance. All based on "getting more people in the door" and closing poorer-performing stores.
All that talk from Kudlow over the years -- "a strong dollar." Wrong, wrong, wrong. I never understood that.
AI prompt: MSFT water news. Apparently MSFT is forced to backtrack on this goal.
AAPL down $2.00 at the open. Reports earnings tomorrow after the bell.
Has Oracle just turned the corner? Up $5 today.
David Faber still talks about circular financing in a pejorative sense. Of course it is -- it's a way to get around the regulators.
How long does it take for Schwab to catch up to the market?
The Day The Music Died -- GM's Sales Surge -- GM's Earnings Surge -- The End Of GM's Hobby Horse -- January 28, 2026
Locator: 49859EVS.
Still lots of EV losses.
General Motors reported a $3.3 billion net loss in 4Q25, largely driven by over $7 billion in charges and special, noncash impairment charges related to restructuring its electric vehicle (EV) strategy, cutting production, and canceling supplier contracts. Despite this, adjusted earnings remained strong at $2.8 billion due to solid ICE vehicle performance.
Takeway: this show absolutely how much money GM makes on ICE vehicles.
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Still One Of My Favorites
Today:
- the third angle, The Third Man -- perhaps my favorite movie -- perhaps even better than Casablanca.
- The Third Man theme, link here.
Like TYWKIWDBI, we both started our blogs in 2007. Interesting, huh? I deleted all posts from 2007 through 2008, and started fresh sometime in 2009. But I started blogging in 2007.
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