Saturday, January 3, 2026

On This Date In January 3, 2026

Locator49787ARCHIVES.

Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro: announces holiday vacation in the United States.

  • says that since the Canadians aren't visiting, he's taking advantage of empty theme parks.

Iran's Khomeini: looking on with interest. 

  • getting out the scrapbook; reviewing how the Shah was ousted/overthrown;
  • measuring drapes for new Moscow apartment;
  • will get credit check / reference from Bashar al-Assad who recently moved to one-room apartment in Moscow;
    • not known if apartment included a landlord-provided refrigerator.

Bake sale alternatives -- Minnesota daycare centers: #1 fundraiser for terrorists in the Mideast; who wudda thought

  • has been driving force for at least a decade;
  • where has Amy Klobuchar been? 
    • can't blame the governor; he was campaigning with KH;
    • had his hands full with tampons and deconstructing the VP's word salad; 
  • NYT broke the story in November, 2025; story ignored; for once, The NYT got it right; no one listened;
    • rest of media didn't learn (alternate spelling: lear) of this until December, 2025

EVs: BYD overtakes Tesla as #1 plug-in EV manufacturer;

  • Pyrrhic victory; sales are declining everywhere except in Europe;
    • EVs: experiencing the seventh level of hell. Link here
  • Europeans exchanging dependence on western oil for dependence on Chinese batteries. 

Trump's one big beautiful bill: no tax on overtime, social security, or tips --

  • and people are still complaining

Tariffs: Trump says enough is enough; will start dropping tariffs --

  • and people are still complaining

National Guard: departing Portland, LA, and Chicago --

  • and people are still complaining 

Alabama college football: clobbered by a northern college in the Rose Bowl -- 

  • and no one's complaining.
  • Nick Saban is rolling over in his bed on a Vrbo vacation
  • asked what the point spread was in their loss, most of the Alabama linemen couldn't do the math.
  • for the record it was 35 points (38 - 3).   

  • new coach says there will be some changes after that loss. Perhaps a new coach?

California: landlords now required to provide refrigerators for renters.

  • LG, Whirlpool and Café scrambling to meet demand;
  • think about this -- literally overnight, all landlords need to ensure all renters have a landlord-provided refrigerator
  • is it "Lowes" or is it "Lowe's" and what are the tickers for Lowe's and Home Depot?

  • Back to Minnesota: according to U-Haul, United, etc., state-to-state migration, Minnesota is has a net outward migration, state-to-state 
    • one of the most popular destinations for Minnesotans leaving the state: North Dakota (I can't make this stuff up); 
    • Minnesota has one of the faster-growing states in population; how can that be? Must be the Canadian influx.

Duolingo: does not currently offer a Somali language course, 
  • you can find Somali lessons on other platforms like Ling app or Transparent Language
    • similar to Duolingo, Ling is a strong alternative for Somali, while Transparent Language also offers comprehensive content for a subscription fee
  • Minnesota day-care centers: may or may not offer English-as-a-second language
  • Farsi is an alternative 
    • Duolingo doesn't offer Farsi either; alternatives are Clozemaster and/or Pimsleur. 
  • best kept secret another great resource: the US DOW's Defense Language Institute in Monterey, CA; link here:


Monterey, California: as a vacation destination in California where does Monterey rank?

Personal note: without going into classified details, I visited and spent some time at the DOD DLI two decades ago. Farsi and Urdu were two very popular languages being taught at that time. Chinese was the #1 language being taught; if not #1, it made the top two list. 

Must-read: America's military is back. This "look-back" is truly shocking! Puts things in perspective. The best thing that ever happened, giving President Trump a break of four years.  

Changeover: it will be interesting to watch who leaves / who comes in during the Trump second administration. 

From Trump's point of view, his cabinet must look pretty good. His likely targets: arm's length replacements -- top bureaucrats in agencies, starting with "the Fed." Next, Department of Education, followed by HHS  -- the CDC, the FDA, and the NIH are separate operating divisions within the Department of Health and Human Services.  

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Today's Recipe: Deer Sausage

Google: stove top sausage how best to cook one inch diameter -- simmer-sear method.

  • large skillet; add water but do not completely submerge sausages; cover skillet with lid;
  • bring to boil and quickly back off to simmer for 5 - 10 minutes; flip halfway through;
  • remove lid and let water evaporate;
  • once dry, continue cooking 5 - 7 minutes; turning frequently to brown to a crisp on all sides
  • internal temp: 160°F.

Friday, January 2, 2026

Seriously? The S&P 500 Rose 16%; BRK Rose 11% In 2025 -- January 2, 2026

Locator49786INVESTING.

Link here

Two New Permits; Two Permits Renewed -- January 2, 2026

Locator49785B.

North Dakota property taxes: link here


From the link:

Roughly 50,000 North Dakota households will pay nothing in property taxes for the 2025 tax year, but some county officials are concerned about how limiting property taxes will affect their budgets.

This year’s Primary Residence Credit program offers up to $1,600 per household in property tax relief for tax years 2025 and 2026, up from $500 per household offered in 2024. That zeroed out property taxes completely for about 30% of eligible households, Gov. Kelly Armstrong said in a press conference last week.

The expanded subsidies were passed by the Legislature earlier this year as part of a property tax relief package, which at the time was estimated to cost $473 million. That bill also increased funding for a disabled veterans tax credit and a renters refund.

In a random sample of 50 property tax statements across 15 counties, the state found the household had its property taxes reduced by 46%.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.32.

Active rigs: 27.

Two new permits, #42607 - #42608, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR, Iron Oil Operating
  • Fields: Ross (Mountrail County); Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Iron Oil Operating has a permit for a West Shell well, SESW 9-154-89, 
      • to be sited 302 FSL and 1576 FWL;
    • CLR has a permit for a Jean Nelson well, SWSE 35-156-91, 
      • to be sited 445 FSL and 2052 FEL.

Two permits renewed:

  • Silver Hill Energy, a Maple Leaf permit and an Avalanche permit, Leaf Mountain oil field, both in Burke County.

Automobile Sales -- January, 2026, Data -- The Day The Music Died -- Posted January 2, 2025

Locator49784EVS.

EV: reminder -- tax credits, etc, ended September 30, 2025 --  

  • coincided with end of 3W25
  • coincided with end of US federal government fiscal year

4Q25 data -- first quarter in which tax credits were no longer available. Decrease in sales were expected, and percentage decline would have been exaggerated by surge of buying in 3Q25 before tax credits were no longer available.  

Tesla, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

  • delivered 418,227 vehicles
    • down from 495,570 deliveries from one year ago
    • below the consensus estimate: 440,907
  • TSLA: shares down 1.2%
  • so, 
    • estimate: 441,000
    • actual: < 420,000
    • 5% worse than expected, and 
    • down 16% from one year ago  

Rivian, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

  • delivered 9,745 vehicles (these numbers are atrocious)
    • down from 14,183 deliveries from one year ago
    • consensus estimate not provided
  • RIVN: shares down 2.2%
  • so, 
    • one year ago: 14,183
    • this quarter: 9,745 
    • down 31% from one year ago  
  • history: it appears that Rivian recorded an all-time high of 13,201 deliveries 3Q25
    • for perspective, 12,640 deliveries, 2Q23
  • overall 2025 performance
    • delivered 42,247 vehicles vs 51,579, full year 2024
      • an 18% decrease from 2024, slightly below analyst expectations
      • 2024, full year: 51,579. 
      • 3Q: 13,201 or 31% (straight line would have been 25%)
    • 4Q: 9,745 or or 23%
    • 9,745 extrapolates an rate of 38,980, or  
    • 92% of total deliveries, 2025
    • 75% of total deliveries, 2024 
  • one wonders how they will spin this; three more years of Trump.  

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BYD

Sales decline y/y (fourth quarter).

Full-year sales at 4.6 million met their revised target.

Surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer overtaking Tesla.

Unlike Tesla and Rivian (both pure-play EVs), 50% of BYD's sales are BEVs; 50% are PHEV (fake EVs).

Chinese market is saturated; reports strong export performance. 

Market -- Investing -- January 2, 2026

Locator49783MARKET.

Weather: wow, wow, wow, what an incredible day -- it's already 61°F, absolutely cloudless, and no wind, not even a breeze. The high will only get to 71° but that's fine. No complaints.  

Market: I haven't followed the market for about two weeks -- with some very minimal exceptions, mostly related to recording EOY statements.

I won't be following the market today either. In fact, my life has been much calmer and I've gotten a lot more reading done. I don't make New Year's resolutions but I have to admit, I may limit my screen time with CNBC to less than one hour per week. No typo. Ten minutes with sound on mute every day, 0800 to 0810, central standard / daylight time -- just to see the "implied opens." 

Buffett: Speaking of which, I was completely unaware of Warren Buffett's marital arrangement(s). Absolutely fascinating. I was also unaware that one of his closest friends over the year was Ms Christie Hefner, yes, that Hefner.  All this from the 2008 biography of Warren Buffet, and, no, the author was not Becky Quick. 

Much could be said.  

RMDs: With regard to investing, my wife can't take her RMDs fast enough each year. Me? I try to wait as long as possible but because I'm giving all my RMDs away (mostly to Uncle Sam, then to the grandchildren) I take my RMDs earlier than I used to. 

With regard to the grandchildren, I will fully fund their Roth IRAs through age 29 (their age, 29, not mine, LOL). My wife and I will also ensure our grandchildren emerge from college debt-free. 

On another somewhat sad note, I'm starting to see a whole lot more typographical errors on the blog. I correct them as I find them and I appreciate readers not e-mailing me regarding those errors. Significant "content" errors, however, I do want to know about. 

College football yesterday: incredible games, surprising outcomes -- quarterfinals in the books, as they say, and teams that made the semifinals are known (in bold below):

  • Miami over Ohio State, absolutely shocking; much could be said about Ohio's seasonal schedule; a decisive 24-14 win for Miami; 
  • Oregon over Tech Tech, 23 - 0; Texas Tech, known for their explosive offense ... imploded; Oregon has a history of doing this;
  • Indiana over Alabama, 38-3; a blow-out; wow, this is going to be a incredible finish for the college championship; First Take is having a great time with this game;
  • Ole Miss squeezed by Georgia, 39 - 34. This was probably the best game with regard to "pins and needles." It was Georgia's game to lose early on; then Ole Miss came back and dominated for 30 minutes or so, but then Ole Miss closed the deal, though, perhaps with some controversy. 

What's next? The two semifinals games:

  • #2, #3, and #4 — all eliminated;
  • #1 Indiana plays #5 Oregon; and,
  • #6 Ole Miss plays #10 Miami.

I would assume Indiana will be playing Miami in the Championship Game. Whoo-hoo!

I have no dog in that fight: my allegiances to either team will flip-flop throughout the game. My preference is a first-three-quarter-hard-fought game with no clear winner and then the ultimate winner blows it away in the fourth quarter. I like to see the champion make a statement. And if not that, a tie in regulation time, and then two overtime periods. 

Oh, back to investing. Since it's such a big day (Warren Buffett is no longer CEO of BRK), let's check on BRK-B at the open: down almost a percent; down almost $5.00; trading under $500, at $497.89. My hunch, the chairman of the board for BRK is talking to Greg Abel this morning. BRK will likely take one of two paths: remain a "mutual fund," making gobs of money for the company's directors and senior leaders but rank-and-file shareholders won't do particularly well compared to the rest of the market; or, Greg Abel ... nope, there are no two paths. 

For the record, I believe the S&P 500 was up 16% for calendar year 2025; BRK was up 11%, and it was a fairly easy year to do very, very well in the market .... early on it was clear that if one likes shooting fish in a barrel, one would have done well shooting at the Magnificent 7 and tech infrastructure.