Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Well, This Ruined My Day -- I Guess I Really Do Have To Get A Texas "Real ID" Before I Fly Next -- And The Waffle ID Has Been Working For Me For Years -- June 25, 2025

Locator: 48589WAFFLEHOUSE.

I absolutely love the USA.

But before I throw away my Waffle House ID, I'm waiting for:

  • President Trump to weigh in;
  • Judge Boasberg to overturn Trump's executive order; and, 
  • a photo of RFK, Jr., visiting a Waffle House. 

What a great country.

By the way, I was trying to decide whether to drive or fly to the family reunion this year ... this solves taht dilemma. 

My hunch: Waffle House won't be able to keep up with Waffle House IDs starting next week. LOL.

It looks like it may be harder for an employee to get into a Waffle House (WH@RealID), than an intern to get into the White House (WH@WhitePowder). Just saying.

Three New Permits; Nine Permits Canceled; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- June 25, 2025

Locator: 48588B.

Director's Cut: April, 2025, data; released on/about June 25, 2025. Link here.

  • April oil production: 1,171,730 bopd
  • April natural gas production: 3.471 BCF / day

WTI: $64.92.

Active rigs: 31.

Three new permits, #42052 - #42054, inclusive:

  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Kittleson Slough (Burke)
  • Comments:
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for three Tinjum wells, SESW/NWNE 19/31-159-91, 
      • to be sited 66 / 135 FSL and 1788 FWL.

Nine permits canceled:

  • Petro-Hunt: three Mongoose permits; four Noonan Federal permits; one Louis Tully Federal permit; and, one Thronson 3 permit canceled; all but the Thronson E in McKenzie County; Thronson E in Mountrail County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40566, 2,439, BR, Burned Edge 2A-ULW, McKenzie County;
  • 40567, 1,824, BR, Burned Edge 1A-ULW, McKenzie County;

Micron Earnings -- The Supercycle Begins -- June 25, 2025

Locator: 48587MICRON.

Link here.

Micron earnings.


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Meanwhile -- Nvidia

Grapevine, TX -- Reminds Me Of The Williston Boom Some Years Ago -- June 25, 2025

Locator: 48586INFLATION.

Inflation watch: eight hot dogs for a buck?

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Boom in North Texas

Link here.

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Headlines And Comments

Headlines and comments:

  • Nvidia shares hit record as Wall Street shrugs off China concerns
  • BP shares rise on takeover speculation; Shell denies
  • More and more indications the Fed is behind the curve with regard to rate cuts
    • exhibit A: sales of new homes tanked in may, pushing supply up to a 3-year high
    • exhibit B: even Jay Powell suggested may be time for cuts
    • exhibit C: all that talk about tariffs becoming less and less relevant
    • exhibit D: Jay Powell says US is not in a recession 
  • most recent GDPNow estimate: 3.4; next estimate due on Friday, June 27, 2025
  • Trump was probably correct on damage assessment following The Strike; link here.
  • damage assessment for this killer confirmed; dead; link here;
    • BG Ali Shadmani, commander of the Khatam-al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has died following injuries sustained last week in an Israel strike
  • still no update on possible cause of Air India 171 crash killing 241 of 242 on board

Coatue's Fantastic Forty -- June 25, 2025

Locator: 48585COATUE.

Could see all-time highs on US equity market today. 

If you can catch it, an incredible interview on CNBC this morning.

First money manager that reminds me of Peter Lynch, rule of 20, Fidelity Magellan. No longer the rule of 20.

June 22, 2025: the "fantastic 40." Link here.

  • Notable absence:
    • Apple
    • Intel
    • Google
  • Notable presence:
    • Amazon (#4) -- I find this incredibly interesting
    • Boeing (#36)
    • Musk x 2: Tesla (#7); SpaceX (#12); xAI (#35); highly high on Musk
    • OpenAI (#9) -- huge threat to Google; that's why Google is not on his list

Was on the board of ByteDance (TikTok): not on that board any more but not due to disillusion; moved to another board. Still "high" on TikTok.

Mom-and-pop retail investors may want to use ChatGPT / AI to take a look at Coatue's "Fantastic 40."  

Wiki.

Coatue is an American technology-focused investment management firm led by founder and portfolio manager Philippe Laffont.
Coatue invests in both public and private markets, with a focus on technology, media, telecommunications, as well as the consumer and healthcare sectors.
Coatue has a global presence with offices located in New York City, Menlo Park, California, London, Shanghai and Hong Kong.
History Philippe Laffont graduated from MIT in 1989 with a degree in computer science. He worked as an analyst for McKinsey & Company from 1992 to 1994 in Madrid, Spain. After a stint as an independent consultant, he joined Tiger Management LLC as a research analyst in 1996, focusing on European telecommunications stocks. 

100 years ago:

  • agriculture represented 50% of US economy
  • now: agriculture represents 1% of US economy
  • that's how Coatue thinks of technology but thinks AI will move so much more quickly than the agricultural transition over 100 years.

We may have to talk Apple / AAPL later.

 There are currently over 1.38 billion active iPhone users worldwide. This number represents a significant increase from previous years, with the total number of active iPhone units surpassing 1 billion in 2020, according to Statista. The United States remains Apple's largest market, with a substantial number of iPhone users, according to Statista. 

Link here. We need to discuss Apple's business model.

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Next: AI -- Nvidia

We also need to discuss Nvidia in light of DeepSeek misinformation, mis-direction.

Similar to the misinformation, mis-direction coming out of the Mideast concerning the Big Strike or The Strike.

Cramer: the tech market / AI for investors is all about Nvidia (NVDA) breaking out to new highs.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.