Friday, June 6, 2025

TGIF -- It's Almost As If Yesterday Didn't Happen -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48694B.


 

Jobs:

  • at 139,000 in May, increased more than expected
    • estimate: 125,000
    • April: 147,000
  • unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%
  • nearly half the job growth came from health care:
    • 62,000
    • well over the average gain in health care of 44,000 over the past year
    • 62,000 vs 44,000 that's not trivial
    • that's 41% greater than the average this past year
  • leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 jobs

Alex Karp: quick, who is he?

Again, Stanford. Absolutely amazing.  

Trump-Xi talks back on? Maybe.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI; $63.54

New wells:

  • Sunday, June 8, 2025: 25 for the month, 178 for the quarter, 392 for the year,
    • 41355, conf, Five States Operating, BC 2-21H,
  • Saturday, June 7, 2025: 24 for the month, 177 for the quarter, 391 for the year,
    • 41180, conf, CLR, Helen 6-8H1,
    • 40517, conf, BR, Keene 14-36 MBH-ULW,
  • Friday, June 6, 2025: 22 for the month, 175 for the quarter, 389 for the year,
    • 41311, conf,  CLR, Kenneth 6-17H,

RBN Energy: will Enbridge's expansions avert another Canadian oil pipeline capacity crunch?  Archived.

It seems almost nothing is going to stop Western Canada’s crude oil production growth. But getting those incremental barrels to refiners and exporters will require more pipeline takeaway capacity, including expansions to Enbridge’s Mainline and Express systems, which should keep barrels flowing to key markets in the U.S. and avoid a capacity crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we consider how our outlook for Canadian production over the next several years stacks up against takeaway capacity and what additions will be needed to keep pace. 

It took a few months of unpleasantries, but it seems the energy trading relationship between the U.S. and Canada has returned to its previous pattern of reliable flows of crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, and electricity across their long border. There were no serious disruptions during the drama that began in January and lasted into April as both countries and trading markets reacted to the changing tune, direction and magnitude of tariffs that were to be enacted by the Trump administration, especially on something as vital and basic as energy imports into the U.S.

After all the drama and gnashing of teeth, the Trump administration ultimately concluded that it would not impose any new tariffs on energy imports. With Canada providing a huge amount of energy (and energy security) to its southern neighbor, especially as its largest importer of crude oil at more than 4 MMb/d — far more than any other nation — it was the best possible outcome for both sides. The potential for unnecessary crude price discounting of Canadian production (see Everybody Hurts) and higher costs for U.S. consumers were avoided — at least for now.

As we discussed about a month ago in Here, There and Everywhere, it was in the midst of the tariff chaos earlier this year that Calgary, AB-based Enbridge, one of the largest midstream companies in the world, introduced additional plans and details for the expansion of its liquids pipeline systems linking Canada and the U.S. for the export of crude oil and import of diluent, a vital ingredient for the transportation of bitumen from the oil sands of Alberta. With the company’s expectation that Western Canada’s crude oil production will be steadily pushed higher in the years ahead, led by the Alberta oil sands, more pipeline export capacity will be needed to move that crude to market, while partly using additional imported diluent. 

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Broadcom -- AVGO -- Earnings Update -- June 5, 2025

Locator: 48693AVGO.

Link here to Beth at x. 


Link to CNBC on AVGO's earnings.

What an incredibly strange day, to say the least. 

Earlier post on AVGO's earnings.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here. 

North Dakota Has The Highest Rate Of Measles In The United States -- June 5, 2025

Locator: 48692ND.
Locator: 48692MEASLES.

Another first for North Dakota. Thank you Mr RFK, Jr, helping to put North Dakota on the map again.

Link here.


Hard to believe this is the 21st century. 

The vaccinia virus, known for its use as the smallpox vaccine, was discovered in 1796 by Edward Jenner, almost 230 years ago not long after the Revolutionary War.

Further details:

In 2024, North Dakota reported fewer than 10 measles cases, as the total number of cases in the United States that year was 285, with North Dakota not among the states with significant outbreaks.

However, in 2025, the situation escalated significantly. 

As of early June 2025, North Dakota had reported 34 confirmed measles cases, marking the state’s highest measles incidence rate in the nation at 4.3 cases per 100,000 residents.

The outbreak primarily affected unvaccinated individuals, with 26 of the 34 cases occurring in children aged 5 to 19, and none of those infected had received the measles vaccine. 

The majority of cases were concentrated in four counties: Williams County (16 cases), Grand Forks County (10), Cass County (7), and Burke County (1). 

This surge in cases has been attributed to declining vaccination rates in the state, with Williams County’s measles vaccination rate falling to 83.5% in 2024, well below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.

Apparently the nationwide measles vaccination rate is currently running about 91%.

Most notably, none of the counties with large native American populations were listed above.

The measles epidemic in Texas appears to be burning itself out. Link here.

Williston State College Scholarship Update; Re-Posting Link To Boom And Bucket Scholarships -- June 5, 2025

Re-posting.

Locator: 48691WSC.

A reader sent me an e-mail requesting that I link scholarship information at this link:

Link to Boom and Bucket. 

I have no relationship or connection with Boom and Bucket other than posting this link. 

Background.

The "Boom and Bucket" reader had seen a post on the blog with regard to Williston State College scholarships. That blog was posted back in 2014. 

I posted all of that on the blog earlier this week but today the Marketing Director at Williston State College sent me an e-mail telling me the college has updated their scholarship information and asked if I could update the blog.

The Williston State College scholarship information is linked here.

Dated October 30, 2024, the press release states that WSC has introduced a newly restructured scholarship program designed to provide students with great control and flexibility. 

The updated Homesteader Scholarship now offers up to $4,000 per year, allowing students to use funds for not just tuition and fees, but also for books, housing, and food. This expanded coverage provides greater freedom for students to tailor their aid to meet their personal financial needs, giving them more control over how they manage college expenses.
 
“By expanding the scope of how scholarship funds can be used, we’re helping students make their financial aid go further,” said Hunter Berg, Executive Director of the Williston State College Foundation. “This flexibility means that more students can afford college without the financial strain that often comes with hidden costs like housing and books.”

The newly revised WSC scholarships:

  • Offer up to $4,000 per year: Funds can be applied toward tuition, fees, books, housing, and food.
  • Comprehensive coverage: Scholarship dollars now cover a variety of college-related costs, helping students manage more than just tuition.
  • Maximized aid: Scholarships are applied after federal grants such as Pell Grants, allowing students to make the most of their available resources.

Hopefully that's all correct. If any of the above information is incorrect or needs to be edited, please let me know.

On another note, something I think about often:

Both my brother and I benefited from low-interest rate loans from the Alva J. Field Memorial Trust many, many years ago. 

Cobra To Re-Complete An Old Red River Well -- June 5, 2025

Locator: 48690COBRA.

WTI: $63.20.

Active rigs: 32. 

One item on the daily report today: permitted for re-completion:

  • 20276, 63, Cobra Oil & Gas, Flat Top Butte 15-34R, Flat Top Butte, McKenzie County, Red River formation; t4/12; cum 121K 4/25;


 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER4-202513304440222111601048
RED RIVER3-20253138442920258615571019
RED RIVER2-20252288210019339121016
RED RIVER1-202520327216863295129010
RED RIVER12-2024315594581732451544370
RED RIVER11-202426522654147635102919523
RED RIVER10-202431573679156838563568210
RED RIVER9-2024305314511432356514322058
RED RIVER8-2024315434501764397438960
RED RIVER7-2024316056691760435142730
RED RIVER6-2024264564481809379237240
RED RIVER5-20241652745384435462615888
RED RIVER4-2024307856681446527938371367
RED RIVER3-2024273074341135330232320