Note To Readers -- Due To Factors Beyond My Control -- There May Be More Typographical And Content Errors Than Usual -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 48497B.

Most importantly: this is not an investment site.

See the disclaimer.

The Boom Is Over; The Bakken Manufacturing Stage Will Last At Least Until 2100 -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 48496B.

A reader just sent me this link and asked for my thoughts.

Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/. 

Not-ready-for-prime time, my reply:

This is pretty funny.

The shale boom ended years ago. I talked about that on the blog.

The Bakken boom (the metonym for the shale revolution in the US) went to "the manufacturing stage" some years ago. If I can find the post, I will link it.

There's a huge difference between "a boom" and "a manufacturing phase."

In the boom, time was money. No one cared how much they spent; they just wanted to get the leases and the acres as fast as they could, before anyone beat them to it.

In "the manufacturing stage, it's just the opposite. Plenty of time; now it's all about how to spend one's money carefully and how to best manage the assets. Wells will be shut in; wells be brought back on line; wells will be choked back; wells will be re-worked -- all based on a lot of factors.

So, yeah, the boom is over, but the shale revolution continues, but now operators are managing their assets.

Here's one link: at least by 2016 Lynn Helms, et al, said we were in "the manufacturing stage in the Bakken:

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/09/an-example-of-manufacturing-stage-inthe.html.

You may see this note on the blog. LOL.

I haven't read the article yet. I'll read it later. I'm surprised the EIA says we're still in a "shale boom." That train left the station ten years ago in the Bakken; maybe longer; and the same with the Permian. The Permian is in the manufacturing stage, also.

By the way, Phoenix Operating doesn't think the boom is over: LOL. They're paying upwards of $30,000 / acre for minerals under the river. Just posted moments ago.

Pretty soon we will be talking about "the Bakken bust."

The oil cycle is pretty easy to summarize: boom and bust.

Producton Has Been Updated For The Whiting Bartelson Federal Wells Under The River -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 33743B_Bartelson. 

Tag: "triangle under the river"

See this post.

The wells:

• 33743 2,063, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-4H, Sanish, t7/18; cum 543K 8/22; cum 615K 8/24; cum 629K 2/25; offline;
  
• 33744, 2,020, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31, Sanish, t7/18; cum 582K 8/22; cum 645K 8/24; cum 656K 2/25;
  
• 20058 2,084, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-2H, Sanish, t5/12; cum 454K 8/22; cum 475K 8/24; cum 478K 2/25;
  
• 33745, 1,516, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-3TFH, Sanish, t7/18; cum 307K 8/22; cum 357K 8/24; cum 370K 2/25;
  
• 33746, 1,358, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-2TFH, Sanish, t7/18; cum 252K 8/22; cum 298K 8/24; cum 309K 2/25;
  
• 33747, 1,500, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31TFH, Sanish, t8/18; cum 278K 8/22; cum 319K 8/24; cum 332K 2/25;
  
• 33748, 2,084, Whiting, Bartelson Federal 44-31-2H, Sanish, t8/18; cum 466K 8/22; cum 532K 8/24; cum 542K 2/25;
  

Updates

Original Post

The reason for looking at the Bartelson Federal wells tonight:

If I was asked which one section I was most interested in right now, it would be this section.

The parcel: 8-153-93.

At the sidebar to the right: things to follow up.

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2022/07/a-closer-look-at-70-acre-parcel-whiting.html.

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2022/07/70-acre-parcel-in-mountrial-county-goes.html. 

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2022/07/blm-sale-july-11-2022.html.

The parcel: 8-153-93.

Going forward, with re: to monthly hearing dockets, watch for this triangular (triangle) under-the-water parcel:

• Chord Energy, Whiting
• Alkali Creek oil field
• section 31-154-93
• section 32-154-93

"Experts" have stated that daughter wells won't do as well as parent wells in shale / unconventional plays. Several daughter wells, and perhaps all daughter wells, on the Bartleson Federal pad have done better / will do better than the parent well. 

Jump in production, #20058: the jump in production was at least 2x that when the well was first drilled:

BAKKEN	9-2019	30	3761	3759	1933	16446	16235	151
BAKKEN	8-2019	30	5389	5386	2359	17052	16841	154
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	7814	7821	3047	19297	18889	346
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	9538	9543	3981	17583	16438	1086
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	11779	11802	4709	22957	21261	1634
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	13892	13928	5626	22320	21446	814
BAKKEN	3-2019	30	13373	13348	10094	19027	18277	694
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	14689	14745	13952	22308	20830	1422
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	17338	17257	18134	25663	23335	2267
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	18902	19026	18520	23371	20035	3283
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	23592	23500	30073	30815	20914	9844
BAKKEN	10-2018	24	23438	23366	27545	27317	17662	9610
BAKKEN	9-2018	10	2645	2644	2654	2659	2000	644
BAKKEN	8-2018	10	961	976	602	781	500	262
BAKKEN	7-2018	9	706	716	80	564	39	507
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	32	0	6124	27	0	26
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	22	1554	2014	428	1568	0	1530
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	2391	2399	813	2562	0	2501
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	2527	2380	1006	2651	0	2591
BAKKEN	8-2017	27	2535	2406	1399	2541	0	2488

Initial production:

BAKKEN	8-2012	29	7186	6562	1398	8289	0	8234
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	8242	8799	1594	9028	0	8966
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	12085	11482	3172	13200	0	13140
BAKKEN	5-2012	15	11847	11012	3557	11389	0	11359

Quarterly Lease Results -- February, 2025

Locator: 48485B.

Quarterly leases results, link here. At that link, scroll down to "auction results."

Quarterly lease results, February, 2025, link here. Below is a screenshot of part of page four (4) from a five-page report. The typical bonus for a mineral acre in the Bakken is in the $2 - $16 range. "Good" areas will get bonuses of $100 to $300. I seldom see bonuses greater than $1,000 per acre. That puts the bonuses in the screenshot below in perspective. 

The parcels: under the Missouri River, Williams County and McKenzie County.

Let's take a look at section 25-154-101: see maps below.

83.53 acres * $30,098 / acre = $2,514,086 for the parcel.

Wells of interest:

• 18311, AB, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36 1H, Catwalk, t12/09; cum 369K 7/23;
• 39366, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F XE 1H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 313K 2/25; first full month production: 62,432;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2025	24	7858	7798	12388	10933	10695	0
BAKKEN	1-2025	31	11347	11376	17070	14604	14476	128
BAKKEN	12-2024	19	4142	4142	9053	5242	5196	46
BAKKEN	11-2024	24	7945	7969	12068	17787	17647	140
BAKKEN	10-2024	31	13741	13664	19540	29615	29279	336
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	12750	12765	19077	21066	20820	246
BAKKEN	8-2024	31	15772	15718	22719	25321	25141	180
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	17414	17419	24755	32029	31205	824
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	24848	24840	29437	37742	31168	6574
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	28253	28265	32979	33332	32135	1197
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	35476	35419	41632	33771	29764	4007
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	41380	41526	52474	34517	24883	9634
BAKKEN	2-2024	26	29183	29574	46482	27343	25088	2255
BAKKEN	1-2024	28	62432	61450	84751	44373	30562	13811
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 39365, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F 6H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 222K 2/25; first full month production: 38,021;
• 39364, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F 5H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 228K 2/25; first full month production: 33,228;
• 39363, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F 4H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 235K 2/25; first full month production: 36,154;
• 39362, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F 3H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 257K 2/25; first full month production: 45,320;
• 39367, drl/A, Grayson Mill, Williston 25-36F 2H, Catwalk, t2/24 cum 247K 2/25; first full month production: 45,792;
  

The maps:

Quarterly Lease Results -- February, 2025

Locator: 48495B.

Quarterly leases results, link here. At that link, scroll down to "auction results."

Quarterly lease results, February, 2025, link here. Below is a screenshot of part of page one (1) from a five-page report. The typical bonus for a mineral acre in the Bakken is in the $2 - $16 range. "Good" areas will get bonuses of $100 to $300. I seldom see bonuses greater than $1,000 per acre. That puts the bonuses in the screenshot below in perspective. 

The parcels: in sections 20 / 26 /36 - 144 - 98.