Friday, April 4, 2025

WTI Plunges; Settles Below $62; CLR With Four New Permits -- April 4, 2025

Locator: 48425B.

Tiktok: is becoming more and more irrelevant by the day. Close to a deal (?) but then China says "no" after new Trump tariffs; Trump extends waiver for 75 days. Having said that, "75 days" might be an important "line in the sand."

JPow and the Fed: the fact that the Fed is willing to "wait and see" speaks volumes.

Cowboys:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.99 -- a reminder, Trump has been advocating for much lower crude oil prices, so no complaining.

Active rigs: 34.

Four new permits, #41774 - #41777, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: West Capa
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for two Rose Federal wells and two Willey wells, lot 3, section 3-154-97, 
      • to be sited 260 / 356 FNL and 2380 FWL.

Four permits renewed:

  • BR: three Gorhman wells, Bailey, Dunn County; and one Hawktail well, Jim Creek, Dunn County.

Shingles Vaccine May Ameliorate Risk Of Dementia -- April 4, 2025

Locator: 48424VACCINES.

Shingles vaccine may delay / decrease risk of dementia. Whoo-hoo!

Back in 2022, or thereabouts, during the Covid-19 pandemic, I decided to get caught up in all my vaccinations, including pneumococcal, RSV, seasonal flu and Covid-19, among the respiratory vaccines.

In addition, I got my tetanus vaccine -- recommended that it be given every ten years.

It seems like there was another vaccine but I don't recall. Whatever. Bottom line, I'm now all caught up and will continue to get my seasonal flu and Covid-19 on an annual basis. 

Accurate record of all vaccinations maintained in quarterly Medicare statements.

Cost of the shingles vaccine:

What Is It About Coffee Nooks? April 4, 2025

Locator: 48423COFFEE.

Predicted earlier this week: Trump would extend TikTok waiver deadline. Two hours ago:

Earlier today I suggested that the Director of the NSA (and his civilian deputy) were the last pins to fall. I forgot one last pin: Fed chairman JPow. His four-year term ends May 22, 2026, and JPow has been very clear that he will not step down earlier. At one point that was a huge discussion; events have overtaken that discussion. 

I would be surprised if Trump didn't have a new Federal Reserve chairman in place before the end of 2026. Mid-terms are next year and it's unlikely the new Fed chairman will be in place early enough to have any effect on the economy prior to the mid-term elections. 

Billionaires:

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What Is It About Coffee Nooks?

More on this later, perhaps.

Is There A Bit Of Irony In All Of This? Another Midnight Massacre -- April 4, 2025

Locator: 48422INTEL.

Last week:

  • Hegseth has survived the "security breach" fiasco (at least so far); living on "borrowed time"?
  • National  Security Advisor, Michael Waltz: ditto.

This week:

  • NSA director (four-star general Timothy Haugh) fired; the real guy in charge, his civilian deputy also reassigned.

This sort of fits President Obama's advice: bring a gun to a knife fight.

What's the real reason for this? Commander-in-chief to his generals: "don't tread on me." 

President Trump is sending a necessary signal to his appointees. Note: it's not yet been 100 days. April 30, 2025, will be 100 days. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that this is the last bowling pin to fall. 

AI has it wrong: still stating that CQ Brown is the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. In fact, he, too, was fired, and the acting chairman is Admiral Christopher W. Grady, who very recently served as commander, Sixth Fleet, with extensive experience in the Mediterranean, waters north of the Suez Canal. The Fifth Fleet is responsible for waters south of the Suez Canal, e.g., the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

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Signalgate Takeaways

Question: exactly what were the takeaways -- with regard to actionable intel -- with regard to Signalgate, as some are calling it.

Does the firing of the NSA director and his top civilian deputy signal the end to "Signalgate"? Reminder: US Congress has held their hearings, and most likely, most members have moved on.

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On A Completely Different Note

A successful Houthi strike, no matter how small, on a US a/c carrier = Gulf of Tonkin response.

It blows me away that Iran would take this chance -- the chance that the Houthis might actually hit a US a/c carrier.

It's getting awful expensive shooting down $2,000-drones with $3,00,000-missiles, and that doesn't even begin to account for the cost of sending yet another a/c carrier group to the Red Sea and stationing  stealth bombers in the region.

The Houthis: this may be the only non-controversial issue facing the Trump administration right now.

Reality, back to Signalgate. What is the bigger intel story here? Let's see:

  • The Atlantic (obscure): we're about to launch some fighters off a/c carriers to attack Yemen, or
  • CNN (not obscure): US has sent at least six B-2 bombers -- 30% of the US Air Force's stealth bomber fleet -- to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

Large Data Centers -- Random Note -- April 4, 2025

Locator: 48421LDC.

From April 2, 2025: the sixth industrial revolution --  this LDC story is getting wilder and wilder by the day. 

Headlines:


Another story not widely reported:

  • state-regulated utilities have long-term contracts to provide "x" amount of electricity to legacy industries; 
    • many of these industries no longer need all that electricity, but contracts force utilities to "reserve" large amounts of electricity for these legacy industries -- think paper mills, textile factories
    • these contracts / quotas leave very little wiggle room for new industries -- think LDCs -- which now require new electricity-generating plants
  • one solution: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta buying legacy industry sites not for their original purposes but for the contracts to supply electricity --
  • having said that -- the amount of electricity used by these legacy industries pale in comparison to what the new LDCs will require.