Net Neutrality Rules Struck Down -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44594MEDIA.

Links by now everywhere.

A win for Big Media. But that's fine.

And ... President Biden Is The Expert On National Security -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44593NATIONALSECURITY.

Another one for the unions. Which is fine.

American Exceptionalism -- Tailwinds -- Tariffs -- January 3, 2025

Locator: 44592TARIFFS.

Link here. I know what assumptions do to folks who make assumptions, but tonight, since I'm in a good mood, I'll make assumptions. I assume a few / some / many / most folks know who Marc Andreessen is. Well, on second thought, maybe I shouldn't make that assumption.

If you don't know, wiki will help.

Eight New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 2, 2025

Locator: 44591B.

Active rigs: 34.

WTI: $73.28.

Eight permits approved, #41470 - #41477, inclusive:

• Operators: Enerplus (6); Hunt Oil Company
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); Ross (Mountrail County)
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil has permit for two State C wells, SWSW 3-156-90, 
• to be sited 357 FSL and 513 / 543 FWL;
• Enerplus has permits for six Crying Tree wells, SWSE 8-147-97, 
• all to be sited outside the spacing unit; the spacing units: section 5 / 8 -147-97, to sited 935 / 1023 FSL and 1614 / 1704 FEL.

Crying Tree wells: there are already at least nine producing Crying Tree wells and another Crying Tree already permitted. So that suggests at least 15 Crying Tree wells -- but I could be wrong on that, but that is what it appears right now.

Six permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill, all in Todd (Williston) oil field: one Hawkeye (#35866) and five Pyramid permits (#35867 - #35871, inclusive). The pad has ten permits / wells on the northwest side of Williston, at the corner of 52nd Street NW and between 32nd Avenue West / Easy Street. I can't make this stuff up. 
• the Pyramid wells are mediocre at best; it will be interesting if this changes with six more Pyramid/Hawkeye wells to be drilled.
  

Three producing wells (DUCs) were reported completed:

• 38098, 246, BR, Stafford 12-34TFH, McKenzie County;
• 40564, 4,974, MRO, Whitaker 34-11H, Dunn County;
• 40614, 4,989, MRO, Elliot 34-11TFH, Dunn County;

The well that is currently still producing, closest to this group of new MRO wells noted above, is 0.25 miles away, situated in a section east of this MRO section, and operated by a different company than MRO:

• 17976, 110, BR, Patton21-1H, Bailey, t9/09; cum 340K 11/24, note the huge jump in production, from 910 bbls over 29 days (9/24) to 6,206 bbls over 30 days, 11/24. The most recent sundry form is dated August, 2022, and does not provide any helpful information regarding the huge jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2024	30	6206	5938	2660	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2024	17	1899	1823	1732	1213	861	146
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	910	1111	356	1063	688	35
BAKKEN	8-2024	30	961	669	456	999	583	40
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	926	895	474	986	561	42
BAKKEN	6-2024	28	941	1144	487	983	594	49
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	1059	900	523	1081	646	54
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	1144	1150	539	1076	643	57
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	961	918	442	834	398	48

American Exceptionalism -- Investing -- January 2, 2025

Locator: 44590INVESTING.

Wow, wow, wow, I'm in a great mood. 

For an investor, 2025 is going to be an incredible year. 

The key thing to remember: the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is not the economy. 

The American economy is going to do very, very well particularly when compared to the rest of the world. 

So, let's leave it at. The American economy is going to do very, very well.

But that doesn't mean the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is going to do well. It's hard for me to believe that after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%) will mean a third year of the same. But nearly 100% of analysts expect the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") to end the year higher than when it started. It's hard for me to be a contrarian, but after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%)....

If that ends up being true, that the market will end up higher by the end of the year compared to the beginning, investors will be very, very happy and very, very well rewarded.

On the other hand, it the market has a significant reversal, it offers an opportunity for investors to invest in the market at lower prices. Warren Buffet appears to be betting on the latter. 

But that doesn't mean the economy is / will be doing poorly. The US economy in 2025 is going to do incredibly well. We'll talk about that later, but maybe not this week. If the US economy in 2025 does incredibly well, and the market disappoints the average investor, not to worry. The incredible US economy will continue into 2026 (tailwinds) and the market will eventually catch up. Investors who continue to invest in stocks this year (2025) will be rewarded, sooner or later.

If the stock market reflects the economy then investors should see a  market that ends higher at the end of the year than when it started.

If the stock market falls, it simply offers investors an opportunity to invest in some great American companies. And wait for things to turn around in 2026.

One caveat: if the market does poorly this year compared to the economy, then the market becomes a stock pickers' market. Again, I think that is where Buffett excels. 

So, bottom line for me this year:

• I will stick with large cap American companies.
• I won't be adding to my positions in high-flying tech stocks. 
• I added cautiously to my tech stocks this past year, but it was back in 2023 that I made my huge positions in high-flying tech stocks. That's over for awhile until I see which way the wind is blowing. 
• There is one exception. I will continue to add to a position that I just started in the past six weeks (which rules out Apple; I've held Apple for quite some time).
• I won't be adding to my oil and gas positions simply because I've built up such huge positions over the years, mostly through dividend reinvestment.

That leaves nine other sectors, sectors about which I know very, very little.

So, except for

• one tech company,
• one restaurant,
• one construction company, I will be putting all new money into broad-based ETFs, not "specialty" ETFs.

I can't be more specific than that, because it doesn't matter. Everyone has their own ideas on how to invest. I'm about the last person anyone would want to follow. 

But it's going to be a great year for investors.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here.