Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Ted Cruz Wins Decisively In Texas -- Wisconsin Puts Trump Over 270 Electoral Votes -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48716POLITICS.

 Updates

4:31 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: Wisconsin votes all counted ... the margin has narrowed to 30,000. And now, the Democrat is leading the US Senate race. Trump has won! Wisconsin put him over the top. MSNBC has just gone nuts! Wow! Trump, 276; Harris 219. A few states yet to be called. MSNBC has absolutely gone nuts. More and more it looks like Biden might have won had he stayed on the ticket. There's going to be a lot of soul-searching with regard to this. "That Iowa poll" -- completely fraudulent. Trump took Iowa by an even larger margin.

4:07 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it's very possible that Harris could win Wisconsin when the Milwaukee absentee votes are counted. It's always amazing how these late votes can dramatically change things.

3:55 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: with 86% of votes counted nationally, Trump with 70 million votes, and Harris with 64 million voltes. Trump wins the popular vote --- despite California, New York, and New Jersey.

3:53 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: Kamala Harris did not win one battleground state. Possibly one exception, Virginia, but Virginia was not considered a battleground state by most folks.

3:51 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it's very possible Biden would have won! Wow, you know that Biden will believe that, whether it's true or not. But comparing how Biden did against Trump four years ago and how Harris did this year ... it's incredible. Those numbers alone, Biden would likely have won this year.That's how badly Harris did compared to Biden four years ago.

3:43 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it is expected that the final votes will finally be counted in Milwaukee within the next hour. It's almost impossible for Trump to lose even when the Milwaukee votes come in, but this is the really, really bad news -- it's likely that the Republican candidate for US Senate will lose and the GOP won't hold an absolutely majority in the US Senate. There's about 100,000 votes from Milwaukee -- "all" votes are counted except for Milwaukee's 100,000 votes --


54,769 votes separated Hovde from Baldwin. Can Baldwin take 60% of the Milwaukee votes?

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Original Post

8:42 p.m. CDT:

Betting: 64% chance that Trump declares victory before midnight. Hannity has already called it on Fox. Hannity's argument is fairly sound. 

9:27 p.m. CDT:

2:12 a.m., CDT, November 6, 2024: when will Kamala Harris concede?

2:16 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:


2:42 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024
:

3:22 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:

Observations:

  • Reminder: IRA was all about green energy. 
  • Nancy Pelosi lived long enough to see Trump be re-elected.  
  • the future of those non-MAGA Republicans are now in limbo. They belong to no party.
  • Democrat leadership? Name current leadership. Biden, Harris, Clinton, Obama out. 
  • Clinton: Americans like "strong though wrong"; not "weak but right."
  • all those concerns about a contested election.
  • time for lots of folks to reflect
  • EVs
  • DEI
  • the woke culture
  • big loser: Michael Moore. James Cargill.
  • the legacy news networks
  • when will ABC News officially call "it" for Trump? 
  • two biggest issues: the southern border and immigration
    • did Kamala Harris ever visit the border?
  • Donna Brazile: Democratic Party strategist -- sort of encapsulates the problem.
  • the pollsters; perhaps it wasn't the pollsters but rather how the elites interpreted the polls?
  • Trump won the popular vote; forget the electoral college; he won the popular vote! 
    • 69 million vs 65 million
  • Fox News
  • Kamala Harris gets to certify Trump's win in  US Congress
  • teachable moment for the Dems to move back to the center
  • it was Kamala Harris' race to lose; had she been able to articulate her position on almost any issue, the race might have been different
  • how many US Supreme Court justices might he nominate?
  • JD Vance is 39 years old
  • Harris not picking a Pennsylvania running mate
  • legacy news networks concerned MAGA folks wouldn't accept a Harris win; now, will the Dems accept a MAGA win?
  • the number of false stories presented night-after-night on national news for the past year; 
  • the race not nearly as close as pollsters suggested;
  • wow, the analysts on ABC News simply don't get it
  • Montana: how can it take so long to count votes in a state like Montana?
  • considering how close so many races were, almost any mainstream Democrat could have done better than Harris; what were the Dems thinking? An open primary now looks pretty important.
  • of the four major legacy news networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox) only Fox has called the race with 277 electoral votes for Trump; the others still have Trump four electoral votes short at 266 at 4:10 a.m. November 6, 2024. 
  • a lot of folks will watch The View today.
  • a year from now, where will Kamala Harris be?
  • did Trump win every swing state?
  • most incredible comeback in political history?

Again, MRO Reporting Some Huge DUCs -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48715B.

Older wells are temporarily off line.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed in today's daily activity report:

  • 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, t7/24; cum 98K 9/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202430223152234429453360753598412
BAKKEN8-2024304415044217369444744247220138
BAKKEN7-2024931642315112684931513297501650
  • 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, t7/24; cum 87K 9/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202430201022012224864400123991113
BAKKEN8-2024293564435723404395792857650173
BAKKEN7-20241431437313074122830567288631595

The wells, MRO - B-2D-G-2L-O, on that mega-pad:

  • 37834, loc, MRO, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  • 37835, loc, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  • 37836, loc, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  • 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail,
  • 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail,
  • 37839, loc, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  • 37840, loc, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay, producing nicely;
  • 40376, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely;
  • 40377, Hultberg USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
  • 40378, Humble USA 44-32TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, a nice well;
  • 40379, Spaulding USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
  • 40380, Thelma USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
  • 40400, Donkin USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;

Examples:

37834:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202429300873013537300331723309110
BAKKEN8-2024286608565990689976490664605188

37835:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202430283702843926205457704565515
BAKKEN8-202429784907844457256102421101935303
BAKKEN7-2024716168161011357419357182521034

 40377:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202429521945212048985649686480920
BAKKEN8-202454790478397506246621718

40379:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202428562035617829981464014629114
BAKKEN8-2024164283142769342164042240235117

The maps:


MPC -- 3Q24 Earnings

Locator: 48714MPC.

Link here. 

Marathon Petroleum Corp beat the analyst consensus for its third-quarter earnings by a mile, despite the expected slump in profits due to plunging refining margins.
All U.S. refiners were expected to report much lower profits for the third quarter compared to a year earlier, as refining margins slumped to multi-year lows amid tepid fuel demand and increased global fuel supply.
On Tuesday, Marathon Petroleum joined the other major U.S. refiners, Valero Energy and Phillips 66, in reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings even if profits significantly lagged last year’s record results.

NOG: 3Q24 Highlights

Locator: 48713NOG.

Link here.

Devon Earnings -- 3Q24

Locator: 48712B.

Grayson Mill acquisition closed. 

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The Daily Bakken Report

WTI: $72.12.

Active rigs: 38.

Six new permits, #41310 - #41315 , inclusive.

  • Operators: CLR (2); Whiting (2); Kraken, WGO Resources.
  • Fields: West Capa (Williams); Glass Bluff (McKenzie); Bear Butte (McKenzie); and, a wildcat, Golden Valley County.
  • Comments:
    • WGO Resources has a permit for a Moe well, a wildcat, NWSW 34-140-104;
      • to be sited 2005 FSL and 960 FWL.
    • Kraken has a permit for a Bubba well, NENE 23-148-101, 
      • to be sited 425 FNL and 468 FEL.
    • Whiting has permits for two Dobias wells, SESE 32-152-103, 
      • to be sited 878 FSL and 490FEL; and, 845 FSL and 490FEL.
    • CLR has permits for a Kenneth well, and a Helen well, NWSE 8-145-96, 
      • to be sited 1755 FSL and 1661 FEL and 1755 FSL and 1693 FEL.

Two permits were canceled:

  • Hunt Oil: two Patten permits, Mountrail County.

Seven producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Mountrail,
  • 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Mountrail,
  • 40477, 668, CLR, Clover 5-10H, Dunn County,
  • 40479, 1,701, CLR, Roadrunner 5-15H, Dunn County,
  • 40480, 1,570, CLR, Roadrunner 6-15H, Dunn County,
  • 40481, 1,275, CLR, Roadrunner 7-15H, Dunn County,
  • 40491, 869, Oasis, Lee N 52-1 21-5 2B, McKenzie County,