Deep Dive: Look At The Amount Of Money Forecast To Electrify The Permian -- September 26, 2024

Locator: 48406PERMIAN.

This story can be found everywhere. The trick is to find a source with no paywall. Here's one.

From the linked article:

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A Texas commission unanimously on Thursday approved the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, which is designed to expand power grid infrastructure in the United States' largest oilfield to accommodate rapidly growing demand from the oil and gas industry.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) directed the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to compile the plan in December last year, two months after ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Pioneer Natural Resources, Diamondback, Chevron and Devon Energy submitted a report with financial information company S&P Global warning the commission of a significant increase in electric load demand in the Permian basin in the coming years.

Electrifying oilfield operations can reduce emissions and eliminate pollution and noise associated with diesel-powered rigs and fracking equipment.

The Texas power grid has come under significant strain, with the state home to some of the most energy-intensive industries, including data centers, cryptocurrency mining and oilfield operations.

Surging population growth and sweltering heat have also increased stress on Texas' vulnerable electrical grid, last month driving demand to a record high.

ERCOT estimates that the required transmission upgrades to meet the jump in demand could range between $12.95 billion and $15.32 billion.

Transmission upgrades only? What about new power production plants? I don't know, just thinking out loud.

Nuclear? Link here.

Just for electrical upgrades. Quick! Name the electric utility that will be tapped to provide the infrastructure. 

Link here.

Maps:

Oncor is a subsidiary of SRE.

Ticker: SRE.

 

 
SRE was the second or third stock I ever bought once I started investing outside of mutual funds. At the time it was known by a different name and subsequently bought Oncor. SRE has become one of my biggest holdings. For the longest time, I used DRIPs for automatic SRE reinvestments. Under $60/share I kept adding to my position. Now, it "depends" whether or not I add to my SRE position. It depends on Sophia's input. It belongs to her now.

Dividend history:

GAP

Ramblings On A Thursday Night -- September 26, 2024

Locator: 48405ARCHIVES.

Tag: private finance

When I listen to the talking heads on "Fast Money" and similar CNBC I am always negatively impressed with how little they seem to "tap into" the huge amounts of money .... there's no way anyone can get their heads around this immense amount of wealth. A lot of its paper wealth -- market value  -- electronic entries in someone's spreadsheet x (times) number of shares. But a lot of it is also cash flow, free cash flow and otherwise.

My dad loved investing. He was in the market during the 80s and 90s and absolutely loved it, but the companies that were in the news then had market values (I suppose) in the hundreds of millions and maybe late in his life in the hundreds of billions, but never trillions. 

And yet analysts are trying understand companies that are so unlike "traditional" companies in so many ways, not least of which their market value. 

I don't even care about the investing story: I'm simply fascinated by what we're seeing. An average congressman or US senator can't fathom what's going on. Readers get irritated with Nancy Pelosi in the market, and we're talking one million, five million, ten million dollars, whatever, and she's investing in companies with a market value of $3 trillion. 

These companies are going to build data centers that will require so much energy they're going to go nuclear. We have simply never seen anything like this before. 

First Industrial Revolution. Real.

Second Industrial Revolution. Real.

Third Industrial Revolution. A book. AKA, The Information Age. Onset: development of the transistor: 1947.

Fourth Industrial Revolution. Real. Current. Now. 

Klaus Schwab. 2016. Rapid technological advancement in the 21st century: AI, gene editing, advanced robots, blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological worlds.

What comes next? 

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Trillions

Investors have never seen anything like this before.

Market value today:

• AAPL: $3.46 trillion
• NVDA: $3.04 trillion
• AMZN: $2.01 trillion
  
• META: $1.44 trillion
  

• BRK (A&B): $0.980.6 trillion

 

• LLY: $0.864 trillion
  
• AVGO: $0.832 trillion
• TSLA: $0.797 trillion
  
• WMT: $0.642 trillion
• XOM: $0.501 trillion
  
• ORCL: $0.466 trillion
• COST: $0.400 trillion
  
• QCOM: $0.192 trillion

• DIS: $172 billion -- parks
  
• PFE: $164 billion -- retail pharmacy
  
• SBUX: $110 billion -- coffee
  
• GM: $51 billion -- cars
• RIVN: $11 billion -- vans
  
• US Steel: $8 billion -- specialty steel
  

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Existential Questions

Why hasn't Russia, in Ukraine, gone nuclear yet?

Why hasn't Iran gone nuclear yet?

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Presidential Politics

No matter who the next US president is, it's going to be the most interesting US administration the world has ever seen. Neither candidate has a moral compass nor a Jeffersonian vision.

Never has this been more concerning: "That which does not kill us makes us stronger.”

And unless it's an "obvious" electoral landslide, we may not know for weeks, even months after November 5th. We have any number of circuit courts that could get involved. And the US Supreme Court may not get involved until the lower courts rule. The requirement to hand count all ballots in Georgia  is  insane ... and then the recounts. Unless, of course, it's a landslide. This, too, will be fascinating. 

And, of course, the polling and the reporting on the polling, is a joke. The Hill says Trump leads in Georgia; tied in North Carolina. The lead in Georgia? One point. And that's a poll.

KODA Resources With Five New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Four Permits Canceled; And Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 26, 2024

Locator: 48404B.

WTI: $67.45.

Active rigs: 35.

Five new permits, #41181 - #41185, inclusive:

• Operator: KODA Resources
• Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
• Comments:
• KODA Resources has permits for five more Stout wells, lot 2, section 6-160-102, 
• three to be sited 365 FNL and 2377, FEL; 2343 FEL; and, 2307 FEL; and, 
• two at 565 FNL and at 2343 FEL and 2307 FEL.

Five permits renewed:

• Oasis (4): four MHA permits in Heart Butte, Dunn County;
• Enerplus: one Queen permit, Antelope, McKenzie County.

Four permits canceled:

• Slawson (4): four Shad Rap Federal permits, Mountrail County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37580, 5,307, BR, Mathistad 2A MTFH, Croff, npd, Mathistad wells are tracked here;
• 40168, 3,479, MRO, Andie USA 12-20H, Four Bears, see this post for some incredible production numbers:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2024	30	39174	39275	50986	51436	50960	355
BAKKEN	6-2024	15	26644	26473	45200	36128	35969	10

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia -- August, 2024, Data -- Posted September 26, 2024

Locator: 48403RUSSIA.

For a country at war and with global sanctions, Russia certainly seems to be doing well for itself. This speaks volumes. Imagine what a country like the US could do under the right leadership.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves:

The US Consumer -- Retail -- Costco Earnings -- EPS Easily Beat The Whisper Number -- September 26, 2024

Locator: 48402RETAIL.

Tag: COST, Costco.  

Ticker after results: down 1.5%.  

Observations:

• P/Es -- this is hard to believe:
• COST: 56
• NVDA: 58
• Dividends: both pay minimal dividends, thought COST is much higher;
• Share price:
• COST: $900 / share
• NVDA: $125 / share
  

Which would you rather own? Last year. Three years ago I had a position in neither of these companies. Shortly after that I started building a position in one of these two companies. If you bought both either of these companies one year ago:

Margins? I can only guess. 60% vs 7%. Use your own numbers.

Results, link here. Easily beat "whisper number," also.

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Original Post

Link here.

COST earnings after close, the expectation from the WhisperNumber community is $5.14, 6c ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings came in $0.01 ahead of the whisper last quarter. 45% beat rate. Implied move +/-3.7%.

Earnings pending.