The Carry Trade -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48482INV.

For the past week, a most common phrase on CNBC has been "the carry trade."

This is"the carry trade," link here:

• borrowing money in a non-US currency,
• in a country whose central bank is lending money at zero interest, or even at negative, rates,
• to buy US dollars,
• with which to buy US equities. 

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My Favorite Chart

See this post.

I've not heard anyone talk about this, but pray tell, from where is all the money coming when MMFs and the US equity market are both at all-time highs. 

From where is all that money coming? 

That's a rhetorical question. 

The answer: the great / generational wealth transfer. Link here.

The baby boomers, 1946 - 1964.

Those baby boomers who live to be 75 years old -- they reached/reach that age ... the earliest ones, 2021 -- the last one 2039. In other words, this great / generational wealth transfer has literally just begun.

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A Musical Interlude

Headphones, and play it loud.

Link here.

Presidential Politics -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48481ARCHIVES.

Two items to read, side-by-side.

Jon Meachem on Thomas Jefferson, in The American Story: Conversations With Master Historians, c. 2019.

Molly Ball on Nancy Pelosi, in The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2024. Link here.

So Much Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48480B.

A reader sent me this earlier tonight. Thank you.

So much left to be done in the Bakken.

From WorldOil, August 20, 2024:

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) released its annual Williston Play Fundamentals that examines the distribution of remaining inventory across the play using economic and geologic viability. The report also dives into redevelopment performance and remaining potential, including refracs, lease line wells and drill-overs.

“Bakken operators are facing a critical decision: when to lean into redevelopment, with only 1,400 sub-$50/bbl breakeven locations remaining,” said EIR analyst and co-author Morgan Howrish.

“We suggest sooner than later, by executing on multiple strategies: refracs, tight-infills, drill-overs and lease line wells. These options could unlock nearly 3,000 additional locations across the basin, all vying for investment particularly in the play’s core where remaining inventory is scarce.

“Refracs, especially those with high proppant intensity, are emerging as contenders to help supplement basin wide production. Their mid-$50s breakevens can contend with new drills, albeit with a wider range of outcomes. While long laterals are becoming more common, they represent just 20% of new drilling activity as they are largely being executed in the extensional regions of the basin,” Howrish said.

The Halo Effect: From 500 BOPD To 34,000 BOPD -- MRO -- Another Halo Success -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48479HALO.

Area of interest. This is what the Bakken is all about. Started with one well on the pad. Then nine. Exactly what we said fifteen years ago: if you "had" one well, someday you will have four, probably eight; possibly 12, and very, very possibly many more:

So, look at #17509, on the map above:

• 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/11; cum 294K 6/24; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	16163	16161	46871	11669	11504	130
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	17740	17777	56627	12796	12746	11
BAKKEN	4-2024	27	34525	34467	101784	21095	19508	1513
BAKKEN	3-2024	2	1896	1877	14236	1291	1186	87
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	342	528	136	378	216	59
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	538	630	179	608	343	81
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	552	428	159	609	368	64
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	531	631	169	520	349	0

And there's more. It simply never quits.

From earlier today, this DUC was reported:

• 40289, 3,305, MRO, Madsen 41-13H, Killdeer, initial production
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	28293	28275	34843	19563	19287	217
BAKKEN	5-2024	26	24779	24781	35363	16585	16520	14
BAKKEN	4-2024	20	25756	25699	45246	13897	12862	987

A neighboring well:

• 17608, 120, MRO, Nanette Strommen 21-13H, Killdeer, t1/09; cum 278K 6/24; recent production, note the halo effect: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	9329	9328	26899	6856	6759	76
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	10687	10681	37701	8391	8358	7
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	7642	7705	33329	4977	4600	359
BAKKEN	3-2024	22	8368	8288	65507	5104	4688	339
BAKKEN	2-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	1	9	79	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	13	53	216	11	122	14	34
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	218	218	72	354	52	118
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	216	210	106	331	39	127
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	339	431	66	439	132	132

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report And Gasoline Demand -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48478OIL.

The weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

• US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average
• refiners: 92.3%
• jet fuel supplied: 3.2% greater than the same four-week period last year

Gasoline demand: link here.