Futures Mean Nothing, But Just The Same, I'm Not Going To Miss Tomorrow Morning's Business News -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48058INV.

Market Updates Throughout The Day
Last Trading Day of 1H24
Best half for the market since 1928

10:02 a.m. CDT: what to the world's richest men all have in common? None of them got rich in renewable energy. And "global warming" issue has been around since at least 1994 -- thirty years ago.

• Nike's worse day in 37 years -- since 1987 -- on guidance! As well as operating results;
• company went public in 1980; Black Friday, October, 1987
  
• what this tells me: investors not happy with lousy returns when they see what Nvidia, et al, are doing
• 2H24: "show me the money"
• money not in renewables or EVs

Mid-morning trade:

Original Post

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At The Open -- Friday, June 28, 2024

Dow: from negative to +200 points at the open --

Cramer:

• soft landing
• all that's left is the rent number
• these were not numbers for a "Fed rate raise"
• "summer rally" is real; "sell in May" is not;
  
• 1H24 has been best half since 1928
  

Apple: 

• Cramer can't say enough about Apple;
• at least four buy-side analysts now have AAPL in $250 - $260 range; currently trading at $215

SCCO: 

• surges -- up 2.22%; up $2.39 at the open; still off its recent highs (but doesn't matter for investors).

NIKE:

• getting crushed! Down almost 20% today. 
• worse day in 23 years
  
• life-style business decline
• performance business didn't offset
• digital weakness
• traffic in China declined
• the current CEO has been there for one year; when he came in, he made huge changes; much innovation
• street doesn't feel comfortable
  

Chicago PMI, link here:

• 47.4 vs 40.0 est -- wow
• S&P goes over 5,500 on that news
  

DOW Theory:

• Dow transports support Dow industrials

VIX:

• at 12.30; well below the "14" threshold

INTC down almost 40% in 1Q24; one of the very few disappointments in the chip sector --

Search:

• google vs reddit (pronounced "read it")
• which is better? Depends.
• politics in real time, link here:

Initial Post On An Eight-Well Enerplus Antelope-Sanish Pad West Of The Incredible CLR Salers And Salers Federal Wells -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48057ENERPLUS.

See this post.

Updating the maps.

 

 

 

We're Going To Miss the 2050 Net Zero Goals By More Than A Decade -- Bill Gates -- June 26, 2024 -- Posted June 27, 2024

Locator: 48056GATES.

Cognitive dissonance:

• being hysterical / alarmist by 1.5°C increase in global temperature;
• not being hysterical / alarmist by the fact that AI will use unprecedented amount of electricity.

Bill Gates, speaking in London, about the huge amount of energy that large data centers (LDCs, hyperscalers) will use, Bill Gates had this to say:

"... by more than a decade." 

" ... more than a decade." Wow, if that doesn't get your attention, nothing will. That gets us closer to 2100 than 2000.

In terms of "green energy/renewable energy," Bill Gates and Warren Buffett would agree that nuclear energy falls into that category; and that, nuclear energy will be needed for the amount of electricity that will be required. 

It's interesting then, that, at least in the linked article above, there is no indication that Bill Gates mentioned nuclear energy. My hunch: speaking in London, the audience was not necessarily very pro-nuclear. If there is something the Brits seem to hate more than BIG Oil, it's nuclear power. 

I probably would have ignored the article except for its timing. I came across the article having just posted the "original note" earlier today.

I think it's fascinating.

By the way, that goal of net zero?

By the way, the roadmap to "net zero by 2050" makes these assumptions: 

".... electrification emerges as a crucial economy-wide tool for reducing emissions. Electric vehicles go from around 5% of global car sales to more than 60%by 2030."

"Our pathway calls for scaling up solar and wind rapidly this decade (2020s) .. this is equivalent to installing the world's largest solar park roughly every day."

Exactly from where does all that "land" for placing solar panels come.  

This is from the IEA; this is from the 2021 revision, well before anyone had any idea about the large amount of electricity large data centers / hyperscalers would need.

Is anybody reading this stuff? LOL.

Global consumption: link here. Very, very nice interactive chart.

Posted earlier: 

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Renewable Energy Losing Its Halo

The big story today: how fast renewable energy has fallen out of favor. Note that even the "big guys" are now talking modular nuclear 'cause they know solar and wind ain't gonna cut it. And, if lucky, they will see return on investment in eight to ten years. Meanwhile, the mom-and-pop, Cramer home-gamers are seeing huge returns in legacy oil and tech.

Dan agrees: link here.

BP halts hiring, slows renewable energy rollout. Link here. Remember: BP had taken the lead a decade ago. Investors not impressed. HALTS hiring for renewable programs. My hunch: the "rest" of the market is spooked by "Nvidia." Investors now have something else in which to invest, and it's now renewable energy.

Europe stepping back on renewables: link here.

Modular nuclear: Bill Gates, Warren Buffett. Hope to see returns in eight to ten years. Link here. Many other links. This article is already three years old -- any returns yet? Any dirt being moved yet? I don't know.

Is It Time For Biden To Announce Another SPR Release? WTI Trending Toward $82 On Surprice Jump In Price -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48055B.

Near the close, WTI is trading up 1.26%; trading up $1.02 and now trading at $81.92.

Investors in publicly traded E&P companies seem unaware. 

***********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.92.

Active rigs: 37.

Four new permits, #40878 - #40881, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Phoenix Operating
• Fields: Arnegard (McKenzie); Burg (Divide)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for three Bitterroot wells, lot 2, section 30-150-100; 
• to be sited between 1980 FNL and 2040 FNL and between 581 FWL and 660 FWL;
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Jacobson well, NENW 19-159-98, 
• to be sited 310 FNL and 2152 FWL

Two permits canceled:

• Crescent Point, #39732 and #39733, a CPEUSC Suitor permit and a CPEUSC Getzlaf permit, Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40120, 322, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
• 40122, 415, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;

For The Archives -- Military Retirement Pay -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48054TAXES.

Link here.

Thirty-three states don't tax military pensions. One would have to be almost blind for a military retiree to pick one of the seventeen other states. LOL.

I can't think of anything these seven states have in common with each other except their apparent aversion for military veterans. The vast majority of military veterans have very little pension income. Most have none. On top of that, the percent of military veterans that would choose to live in Rhode Island or Vermont would seem to be negligible. 

Now social security, link here.

Wow, the following states show up on both lists:

• Montana
• Rhode Island
• Utah
• Vermont