Back To The Bakken -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47041B.

Investing / US equities: across the board, it seems analysts, panelists, talking heads are all bullish on oil.  They don't talk about energy much, but when they do, they have only good things to say about oil as an investment.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: maintains 40-cent dividend.

WTI: $78.95

Active rigs: 39.

One new permit, #40716:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Eightmile (Williams)
• Comments: 
• Oasis has a permit for an Aune Federal wells, lot 3, section 30-153-102, 
• to be sited 2546 FNL and 373 FWL;

Five permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy: one Roosevelt permit and four Elkhorn Ranch Federal permits, all in Billings County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38688, 880, Slawson, Armada Federal 4 SLTFH,
• 39544, 3,031, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F XE 1H,
• 40147, 1,007, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-3BH,
• 40148, 1,026, KODA Resources, Amber 1402-1BH,

AMGN -- March 2024 Quarter

Locator: 47040AMGN.

Up almost 12%. Up over $32, trading at $311.

Apple — AAPL — March 2024 Quarter -- Incredible Earnings Report Despite Huge Headwinds -- Ya Gotta Be A Believer!

Locator: 47039AAPL.

Updates

May 4, 2024: what really makes me excited about Apple?

• the recent report that Apple continues to increase margins
• continues its transition from hardware to services
• its chip division -- Apple Silicon -- is undervalued, under-appreciated, almost unknown by most
• perhaps the greatest FinTech company right now

Original Post -- Not Ready For Prime Time

Whisper numbers.

Link here.

AAPL earnings after close, the expectation from the WhisperNumber community is $1.58, 8c ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings came in $0.03 ahead of the whisper last quarter. 68% beat rate. Implied movement +/-3.6%.

Link here: here it says $1.50 with consensus at $1.51. Revenue: $89.79 billion.

If AAPL misses, shares could drop 4% to$166.08.

Results, link to WSJ article:

• revenue declined for the fifth time in the past six quarters;
• but while sales and profits fell in the March quarter, the numbers were slightly better than analyst expectations;
• overall, WSJ also very negative about AAPL
• so, maybe AAPL will sell off first thing in the a.m.
  

Ticker 

• at close: $173.03 up $3.73; up 2.2%.
• close + 10 minutes: $173.91.
• at earnings announcement: wow! Awesome! But then I expect some profit taking.
• more about this later
• close + 90 minutes: up 6.22%; up $10.72; trading at $183.75
  

Largest-ever buyback announced by any company. It should be noted thi is ajust an announcement; the shares have not actually been bought yet.

• $110 billion buyback
• would that be 647 million shares? would that be 0.7% of shares bought back?
• company had 15.51 billion outstanding shares before this buyback

Raises dividend four cents to twenty-five (25) cents.

CNBC's "Fast Money":

• they all say AAPL is doing badly; this was a bad quarter; seriously
• they said the reason the earnings looks good: Apple has been buying back so much stock over the years -- link here.
  
• last quarter, they bought back $83 billion (or maybe the quarter before that, I forget, but whenever it was, it was a record at the time
• now, today, a new all-time record
  
• LOL
• BRK does the same thing
• something tells me Tim Cook is getting a lot of advice from Warren Buffett
• in the big scheme of things, these guys were all "hoping" / expecting a bad earnings report
• no one saw this coming
• amazing analysis
  
• most "reliable" analyst on "Fast Money" agreed -- said she wouldn't be buying AAPL at this level.
• basically: the panel on Apple / AAPL: no joy; incredibly negative; they seem unable to see The Big Picture
• my hunch: they are quite chagrined -- consistently negative on AAPL; always Debbie Downers when it came to AAPL -- now members of the Apple cult are opening bottles of champagne tonight
• it will be interesting to hear what Cramer has to say in the a.m. He used to be very bullish on AAPL but has become more ambivalent over time
  
• very disappointed in their analysis; LOL
• but having said that -- for all those folks concerned about AAPL, today's a great day to sell their AAPL shares
• they continue to be incredibly negative about Siri

Dividend history:

Anyway, readers better read my disclaimer:

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Following AAPL, the conversation switched to Peloton. The same guy who "hates" AAPL" thinks Peloton is a "buy." And his final stock pick for the show: PTON. Wow.

BR Case 30889 To Place Two Section Line Wells In A 7680-Acre Unit -- Two 3-Mile Horizontals -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47038BR.

From the NDIC May, 2024, hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

Case 30888, BR, Elidah-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping 2560-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 16 wells, McKenzie County --

On a six section standup drilling unit, the company would likely put sixteen wells at the halfway mark and drill eight 3-mile wells to the north, and eight 3-mile wells to the south. Because it's a new drilling unit, in which there are no current wells, this means that the operator will drill sixteen wells in the six-section unit.

The maps: 

The case:

BR Case 30888 To Place Sixteen Wells In A 3840-Acre Unit -- Sixteen 3-Mile Horizontals -- May 2, 2024

Locator: 47037BR.

From the NDIC May, 2024, hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

Case 30888, BR, Elidah-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping 2560-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 16 wells, McKenzie County --

On a six section standup drilling unit, the company would likely put sixteen wells at the halfway mark and drill eight 3-mile wells to the north, and eight 3-mile wells to the south. Because it's a new drilling unit, in which there are no current wells, this means that the operator will drill sixteen wells in the six-section unit.

The case:

The maps: 

The wells on confidential list:

• 36613, conf, BR, Shafer 2B-MBH, Elidah,
• 36614, conf, BR, Sandie 2B-UTFH, Elidah,
• 36615, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-UTFH, Elidah,
• 36616, conf, BR, Sandie 2C-MBH, Elidah,

Three older, producing wells:

• 19083, 183, CLR, Shafer 1-21H, Elidah, t10/10; cum 263K 3/24;
• 19897, 681, CLR, Sivertson 1-9H, Elidah, t9/11; cum 524K 3/24;
• 19776, 352, CLR, Rolla 1-33H, Elidah, t11/12; cum 288K 3/24;