Locator: 46807B.
CPI: oh-oh. That’s the end of silly talk about rate cuts. The Dow just tanked. Seriously? 0.3% vs 0.2% and folks go nuts? Did anyone really think CPI would drop to 0.2%? The mom-and-pop retail investor is being played. From February 8, 2024 — couldn’t have been more correct —
The biggest risk to the market:
- if the market overheats, look for an increase in the Fed rate
- the Fed doesn't do "cuts" in the current scenario — has never done cuts in a roaring economy;
- so, the Fed rate, Oksol's dot plot:
- an increase in the Fed rate this year: 10% chance and the likelihood is increasing;
- higher for longer: 80% chance
- first rate cut in March: 0%
- first rate cut in June: 5%
- first rate cut after November election: 5%
- "Oksol's dot plot"
Buying opportunity.
Crushed with this CPI news: renewable energy, EVs. RIVN, down 6%; FSLR, down 3%. High flying tech down.
EVs: France will end subsidies for the wealthy. Finally.
NVDA: green, and not by a little. Who-hoo.
KO:
Inflation expectations, link here:
In case you missed it the first time, Carl re-posted it, link here. This is just the opposite of thhe Chinese mistake. And the policy Trump is trying to stop.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $77.40.
Wednesday, February 14, 2024: 38 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 97 for the year
40050, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 34-33H,
39156, conf, Hess, RS-F Armour-156-92-1224H-6,
34061, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 5-6H,
Tuesday, February 13, 2024: 35 for the month; 94 for the quarter, 94 for the year
40051, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 6-33H2,
39990, conf, CLR, Omlid 11-19HSL,
RBN Energy: Texas GulfLink, Bluewater Texas hoping to catch next wave of US crude exports.
A handful of U.S. midstreamers are striving to build an offshore export buoy in the Gulf of Mexico that would be able to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC). If successful, they could facilitate a new wave of crude oil export flows and dynamics. With domestic production back to record highs and global supply and demand dynamics in a constant state of flux, the market developments along the Gulf Coast are something the oil industry is eying intently. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the latest on two export projects — Phillips 66 and Trafigura's Bluewater Texas Terminal and Sentinel Midstream’s Texas GulfLink.
