Thursday, February 1, 2024

CVX -- Earnings -- Friday, February 2, 2024

Locator: 46713INV. 

Earnings, Friday, February 2, 2024, 6:15 a.m. ET

  • earnings
    • whisper numbers: EPS, $3.30; revenue, $51.33 billion
    • actual: EPS, $3.45 adj, revenue, $47.18
  • comments: who cares -- hikes dividend 8%. Not trivial.
  • ticker: 
    • before announcement: $147.89
    • after announcement: fairly flat, pre-market, ho-hum -- except for that awesome dividend.


UNP -- Random Update -- Februuary 1, 2024

 Locator: 46712INV.


Groundhog Day -- February 2, 2024

Locator: 46711B.

Later: no shadow seen; early spring!

Anticipating Friday, February 2, 2024:




My Favorite Chart -- Apparently Others Are Noticing -- February 1, 2024

Locator: 46710INV.



Investors are happy about all this cash on the sideline. They shouldn't be; we've discussed this before (December 19, 2023):

More than $6 trillion "on the sidelines." Some talking heads on CNBC and some tweeters opine that a lot of that money could flow back into the equity market in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates. Not gonna happen. Most of that money was moved from checking and savings accounts at banks. Huge problem for regional banks. Some of that MMF money will flow back into the equity market but most of it will stay in MMFs. Compared to MMFs, equities are riskier and even at 2%, MMF compare favorably with equities in many cases. 

People that put money into MMFss are not going to put that money into the stock market. At least not $6 trillion. My mother exemplified the typical "investor" in MMFs, as does my wife. 

Link here.


Three New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed; RBN Energy Gauges The Biden LNG Export Pause -- February 1, 2024

Locator: 46709B.

WTI: $74.24.

Active rigs: 38.

Three new permits, #40495 - #40497, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (2); CLR
  • Field: Oliver (Williams); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for two GO-Olson permits, NWNW 25-157-98,
      • both to be sited 741 FNL with one well 633 FWL and the other, 600 FWL;
    • CLR has a permit for a Marshall well, SWSW 24-145-97, 
      • to be sited 450 FSL and 869 FWL;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37173, 2,720, MRO, Herbolt 31-16TFH, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20231613934134514253686177550829
  • 37647, 449, BR, Tailgunner 2C TFH, North Fork, npd,
  • 39633, 2,505, MRO, Penticoff 21-16TFH, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023171518315112486781031410085162
  • 39634, 2,898, MRO, Jendrick 21-16H, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2023141955019459513031214011873189
  • 39913, 1,808, MRO, Rooney 34-9H, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202313995296073489466315828618
  • 39914, 905, MRO, Osmund 34-9TFH, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202373329321413117220519382

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Biden's LNG Export Pause

RBN Energy: gauging the impact of the DOE's pause in LNG export licenses. Archived.

There’s no doubt about it: The Biden administration’s decision to pause approval of LNG export licenses poses a new threat to a number of projects thought to be nearing a final investment decision (FID).
The questions brought on by the move are profound: how big of a problem is this for U.S. developers, how does the timeout affect the projects now in limbo, and — over the longer term — what does the added uncertainty regarding incremental LNG exports mean for U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and what does it mean for the global energy landscape? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the factors that led to the administration’s announcement — and the case to be made that expanded LNG exports are in the U.S.’s economic and strategic interest.

The U.S.’s mammoth reserves of natural gas, combined with strong global demand for LNG, have spurred a sharp rise in LNG export volumes over the past few years. As recently as December, an average of about 14 Bcf/d of LNG — or around 14% of the dry gas produced in the U.S. each day — is being liquefied and shipped overseas, almost all of it from export terminals along the Gulf Coast. And, with several new LNG export projects under construction, we expect those volumes to nearly double over the next four years.