The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Polestar, Cruise -- November 8, 2023

Locator: 45998EVS.

From Barron's today.

From earlier this week:

Link here.

No New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 8, 2023

Locator: 45997B.

Drudge Report: between the lines --

Ukraine taking back-seat to Israel-Gaza
Israel trapping Hamas in tunnels -- Hamas talking hostage release in small numbers

small cells probably acting independently of Hamas leaders in Qatar

US politics

MAGA got slammed in off-year elections
abortion issue will decide 2024 presidential election
abortion issue: GOP tone deaf; outlier -- Texas, and a few other states
Virginia: bellwether state -- Dems take charge; MAGA-upset;

China

needs the US as Chinese economy implodes
chip embargo crippling China
"China ready to improve ties with US 'at all levels'"
"hostility drops sharply"

5.3 magnitude earthquake hits TX -- I didn't feel it
Disney earnings mixed

CNBC paints rosy picture
Drudge Report not so much

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.33.

Active rigs: 34.

No new permits.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

39186, 2,979, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F-4TFH,
39188, 1,744, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F-2TFH,
39295, 570, Slawson, Banshee 3-1H,

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report, Gasoline Demand, EV Sales Distribution, Inflation -- November 8, 2023

Locator: 45996OIL.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here -- NOTE THIS IS the same report as a week earlier -- the EIA has not updated the most recent week -- see below.

commercial inventories: increased by 0.8 million bbls; 421.9 million bbls; 5% below average;
crude oil imports: 6.4 million bopd; increased by 412,000 bpd; 1.4% above the average;
refiners: 85.4%
distillate fuel: decreased by 0.8 million bbls; 12% below average;
jet fuel supplied: up 8.0% compared to one year ago

So, what's the deal?

API reported a whopping 11-million bbl increase yesterday which was beyond the pale
today, the EIA says the change, week-over-week, was flat

This may explain it:

EIA report: for week ending October 27, 2023, link here.
API report: for week ending November 3, 2023, link here.

The EIA said that reports for November 5 - 8, 2023 (or something like that, might be delayed. And it is a fact, the report issued by the EIA today is the same report as last week. So the latest EIA data has not been posted and EIA's most recent report it a wweek older than the API report that came out yesterday.

WTI today: down another 1%; trading at $76.73.

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Inflation Note

Finally, they’re getting it: link here.

At high-end grocery store this morning, while waiting for my RSV vaccination, I checked a few prices.

Eggs, dozen: $1.69.

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EVs

Sales distribution, US: link here.

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Gasoline Demand

Gasoline demand: link here.

Montana Lot For The Archives -- November 8, 2023

Locator: 45995ARCH.

This is the sort of thing I would share with readers by e-mail but because I no longer have access to e-mail associated with this account, I will share some of this information via the blog.

Back in the early 1970s, my parents bought two lots on Flathead lake, each lot priced at about $20,000.

My dad built an incredibly nice retirement home for my mom. He never lived there, but my mom lived there for years -- a very nice retirement for her. They built the home during a severe economic downtown when contractors were looking for any work they could find. Dad hired a Williston, North Dakota, contractor and the rest is history. If I remember, I will post a photo of the house, and its unobstructed view of the lake.

In the 1980s, my mother offered to sell her lot to me for $26,000. She was caught up with the surge in CD returns (14% -- ? -- should be fact-checked) and the surge in the price of gold. She did very, very well with her CDs. She bought a one-ounce gold coin for each of her five children. That was totality of her gold investment.

I have not built on our lot. Recently an owner of the house behind our lot had a California buyer interested in his McMansion but the buyer was willing to buy only if there was some assurance I would not build something that would obstruct his/her view of the lake. I provided a long letter saying I had no intent to ever build on my lot and it was unlikely that either of my children would ever build on this lot. That brings us to our grandchildren -- no indication that they will build within the next twenty years. If ever.

I have hired a local landscaper to maintain the lot and the lot is in beautiful condition. I will leave money in the estate to continue maintaining the lot.

Last year, for tax purposes, Flathead County appraised the lot at $108,000.

This year, one year later, 2024, the county has appraised the lot for $183,000. No typo.

My plans have not changed. I will ensure through my will and other instruments that the property is never sold and that the property will flow to the grandchildren and their children.

But, wow, it's a beautiful lot.