Friday, October 13, 2023

3Q23 EV Sales -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45773EVS.

Link here.

Such incredibly poor analysis. 

I'll try to find time over the weekend (probably while watching the Dallas Cowboys game) to do my own analysis and sort this all out. Such incredibly poor analysis. 

Later, this story sent to me by a reader, link here. I was going to post a screenshot but after reading the story -- this is mostly clickbait. End of story.

I'll get back to the first story linked above, over at TipRanks.

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EV Sales -- The WSJ

Link here.


From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.
While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands.
Some car companies, such as Ford Motor F -1.58%decrease; and Toyota Motor -2.16%decrease;  are tempering their expectations for EVs and shifting more resources into hybrids, which have been drawing consumers at a faster clip.

If these numbers continue to worsen, the longer the UAW remains on strike, the more likely Ford will pull back some of its already generous offers. 

The Incredible MRO Daniel Pad In Antelope-Sanish Has Been Updated -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45772B.

Link here.

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The Movie Page

An e-mail sidebar with a reader led me to respond to the reader with the e-mail note below. The reader had suggested I might be interested in The Lost City of Z(ed).

My reply:

1. I watched the movie -- Amazon Prime Video --- The Lost City of Zed --- my first thought -- this movie would have been a blockbuster had it starred a young Sean Connery directed by the "Bond" franchise, or a young Harrison Ford directed by the "Indiana Jones" franchise. As it was, it was too much of documentary -- sort of a "Downton Abbey in the jungle." That was earlier this afternoon.

2. This evening I watched Jamie Foxx (who was one of four producers) and Tommy Lee Jones in The Burial, currently being advertised heavily on Amazon Prime Video.  Tommy Lee Jones never, never, never fails to amaze me -- and at his age, he could have phoned his part in but he seemed to really take the part and live it -- Jamie Foxx was incredible. It's not the kind of movie I would see in a movie theater -- but on Prime Video, pretty amazing.The ending is predictable, but I have to say, there was a bit of me that was unsure -- it could have gone either way -- but even so, I was blown away even if you "knew" the ending. At the climax -- you had a fist pump, and ready to turn it off and go to bed -- but then there was more -- the "epilogue" was the cherry on top. The movie is currently being billed as the #1 movie in the US right now -- and Amazon would certainly have more reliable figures than Nielsen.

3. Both movies were based on true stories.

4. The Burial will likely be on my short list of all time favorites, but I probably wouldn't watch it again, as opposed to something like Citizen Kane or Casablanca which I never tire of watching and watch at least once a year.

5. Having said all that, I've watched Asteroid City not less than five times start to finish -- it came out in July, I believe -- it's the only movie I have ever bought on streaming TV and now own a copy that I can watch whenever I want on Amazon Prime for the rest of my life. Warning: if you are not a Wes Anderson fan and if you watch the movie only once, I can pretty much guarantee that you will hate the film. I had to watch it three times in the local movie theater before I became obsessed with it. I will now not watch it for a year -- and then come back to it and see how I still feel about it.
The above is a not-ready-for-prime-time-posting but wanted to post it for the archives.

Week 41: October 9, 2023 -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45771B.

Top, top story:

  • Biden to visit Israel?
  • a 2nd carrier group headed to the Mideasrr
  • Israel: ready to start ground invasion of northern end of the Gaza Strip
    • reports that Hamas leader that orchestrated latest crisis is dead

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Top story:

  • US House with no speaker
  • US Senate won't confirm US military leaders; GOP leadership at its finest

Top international non-story story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues; drags on and on and on
    • Russia most recently invaded February 22, 2022
    • the war actually goes back to 2014
  • new world order in the Mideast
    • Saudi Arabia talking with Iran; cuts off talks with Israel

Top international non-story story:

Top international energy story:

  • New York refuses rate increases, refuses more money for offshore wind

Top national non-energy story:

  • GDPNow comes in at 5.2% for 3Q23 estimate;
  • mortgage rate trending toward 8%;
  • the rout in bonds -- the story won't go away
    • bankers setting new records borrowing funds from the Fed's "emergency" window
    • my wife has her own version of an "emergency window" -- her IRA
  • UAW strike in its fourth week
    • race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike)
  • first-world problem: Americans increasingly divided over self-checkout -- LOL
    • but the bigger story is being missed

Top national energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

  • North Dakota selected as one of seven sites by the Biden administration for a national hydrogen hub;

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there -- active rigs running about 37;

Commentary:

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Eclipse


October 14, 2023



Five New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45770B.

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $87.69. Up 5.77%; up $4.78.

Five new permits, #40258 - #40262, inclusive:

  • Operators: Enerplus (4); Empire North Dakota, LLC
  • Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County); Starbuck (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
  • Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Whooping Crane well, NWSE 29-161-78, 
    • to be sited 2050 FSL and 1650 FEL
  • Enerplus has permits for four MC-Kudrna wells; SESE 100-144-95; 
    • to be sited 222 FSL and between 1134 FEL and 1236 FEL;

Eleven permits renewed:

  • CLR (7): two Elveida and three Bliss permits, all in Divide county, Sadler oil field; one Quale Federal permit and one Harms Federal permit, both in Antelope oil field, McKenzie County;
  • BR (4): four Carlsbad permits, Twin Valley, McKenzie County;

Two CO2 storage wells completed:

  • 39315, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2, , SENW 1-152-94, Antelope, McKenzie County;
  • 39316, CLR, Harms Federal 16-33H, SENW 1-152-94, Antelope, McKenzie County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  1. 31212, 0, BR, Gladstone 5-1-13TFH,
  2. 33055, 2,796, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36A,
  3. 39304, 816, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 9-6H1,

Does This Complicate Fain's Negotiations -- Maybe A Strike At An F-150 Lightning Plant Is Just What Ford Needs -- October 13, 2023

Locator: 45769FORD.

Local Chevy dealers knocking $10K off the Silverado, Octobe4, 14, 2023.  I'm thinking inventory.

The emperor wears no clothes, February 18, 2023: link here.

For sales, mixed but better, June 5, 2023: link here.

Infrastructure lacking, August 19, 2023: link here.

Slashes prices on the F-150, August 25, 2023: link here.

Stealth launch, September 13, 2023: link here.

Does Ford have a problem, September 21, 2023: link here.

A theme that started to develop just about around the time the first strike action started was that there was a surplus of F-150 Lightnings and sales were beginning to slow ahead of winter.

I asked whether a strike slowing F-150 Lightning production was necessarily bad.

Today, in The WSJ, about the time UAW president Shawn Fain was spelling out new strike tactics, this story appeared: link here.

Ford Motor is considering cutting a work shift at the plant where it builds its electric F-150 Lightning pickup as demand for the EV truck falters, according to a memo from a United Auto Workers official.

The official, who leads the union’s local chapter that represents workers at the truck factory, said in a letter dated Tuesday that the automaker was considering canceling the shift and indicated that it was looking to build more gas-engine trucks instead.

“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that our sales for the Lightning have tanked,” the union leader wrote in the memo, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The electric truck, which first rolled off assembly lines in April 2022, has been a central part of Ford’s EV strategy and its debut was a move by the company to capitalize on its brand popularity with pickup-truck drivers.

A Ford spokeswoman declined to comment on the possibility of eliminating a shift at the facility, and said there are some shorter-term schedule changes as it works through supply-chain disruptions and quality checks.

Sales of the EV pickup, which initially had long wait lists, have sputtered in recent months. Ford recorded a 45.8% drop in U.S. vehicle sales of its electric truck in the third quarter. Production of the vehicle halted over the summer as the Lightning plant went down for a scheduled six-week expansion. The factory came back online in August.

The company said that a temporary shutdown of the factory limited deliveries this summer, and the facility is now ready to increase production to meet customer demand.

The company has twice increased its output targets at the Dearborn, Mich. facility, to an annual production rate of 150,000 vehicles. Late last year, Ford added a third shift at the plant to meet its factory output goals.

More broadly, Ford has recently walked back some of its earlier EV ambitions. Company executives said in July that Ford would now produce 600,000 EVs annually by the end of 2024, extending the previous delivery target by a year. Ford also backed off a previous goal to produce two million EVs by the end of 2026.

“We expect the EV market to remain volatile until the winners and losers shake out,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told analysts on an earnings call in July.

Much more at the link, confirming a dismal outlook.

Generally when I think of Farley and Ford, I think of Ballmer and Microsoft. 

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Politics

For the record, Peter Zeihan and I are on the same page of music when it comes to thoughts on Donald Trump.