The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Sunday, April 2, 2023

A New Week -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44290B.

ATT: maintains its dividend at 27.75 cents; pays 5.77%.

OPEC oil cut: this seems to be the back story, link here to Bloomberg:

OPEC feels US shale can no longer make up the difference caused by any cut by OPEC;
in addition, the US administration is clearly favoring a "no more drilling" policy; and,
with Russia cutting production through the end of the year (2023), it was almost too good for OPEC not to cut production.

Freeport-McMoRan: link here.

Personal finance: the current buzz among Gen Z? Cash stuffing.

Psst: the concept has been around for decades. Money guru Dave Ramsey has advocated "cash stuffing" for decades, though I don't know if he ever called it as such, or patented/copyrighted the concept. Even back on October 25, 2022, it was "old."
There's a YouTube video from April 21, 2020, explaining the concept.

Billy Is Back And The Weather Is Great -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44289B.

Local weather forecast: north Texas, DFW:

Egypt: in trouble? Link here.

Billy is back. Link here.

Russia: it's not just OPEC. Look at this. Russia now says it will maintain the "cut" of 500,000 bbls crude oil through the end of the year. Routine maintenance not going well. Link here.

Simple addition: add up all these "announced" cuts and we are solidly above two million bbls/day.

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The Art Page

Art in context.

"Song of the Lark" by Jules Breton, 1884. Currently hanging in the Art Institute of Chicago.

Link here.

Focus On Fracking; WTI / Brent Surging With Unexpected OPEC Cut ; McDonald's Prepares To Announce C-Suite Cuts / Reorg -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44288B.

Focus on Fracking: link here.

natural gas fell below $2 for first time in 30 months,
ends first quarter down a record 50%;
oil imports at a two-year low
EIA's fudge factor update (fifth paragraph at link): 1,803,000 bbls added, line 13, EIA form.

Opening comment: it should be noted that many (most?) US shale operators say they can at least break even on $40-WTI.

production of 50,000 bopd:

at $40 / bbl = $2 million / day
at $80 / bbl = $4 million / day

CLR: before it went private --

around 200,000 bopd: $40 x 200,000 = $8 million / day
200,000 bopd: $80 x 200,000 = $16 million / day
365 days x $16 million = $5,840 million

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors and, in addition, some of the data may be incorrect.

Panic in the White House: oil surges. Panic?

Ovintiv: several sources -- Ovintiv in $4 billion deal to buy EnCap's assets in the Midland Basin (Permian):

Reuters:
@TheTerminal:
Bloomberg:
EnCap Investments: website.

Representatives at Denver-based Ovintiv and EnCap didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Houston-based EnCap has been marketing its positions in the Midland Basin, which includes assets from Black Swan Oil & Gas, Piedra Resources and Petrolegacy Energy.
The Midland Basin is part of the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most productive oil field in the US.

McDonald's: link here.

There Is Precedent ... But Not To This Scale -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44287B.

I may devote this entire blog to links to my twitter feed earlier today.

I will start with this one: "... but not to this scale."

DC: in a panic! How do "we" tell Americans we're not going to fill the SPR this year? It looks like we're going to have to release more oil from the SPR. And, oh, by the way, we are: 26 million bbls of oil will be released from the reserve this month, April, 2023.

My twitter feed after 5:00 p.m. CT, April 2, 2023:

FT op-ed: link here.