Laser-Focused On Dividends — October 15, 2022

McDonalds’s with huge increase in quarterly dividend, from $1.38 to $1.52, record date, December 1, 2022; payable, December 15, 2022.

I think there’s a bigger story here than folks realize.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2022

The wells:

• 38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H, Rattlesnake Point, no production data,
• 38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA, Mandaree, no production data,
• 38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H, Rattlesnake Point, no production data,
• 38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB, Mandaree, no production data,
• 38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX, Mandaree, no production data,
• 38603, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HW, Mandaree, no production data,
• 38858, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HIL, Mandaree, no production data,
• 38365, conf, CLR, Fuller 5-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
• 38849, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR, Siverston, no production data,
• 38366, conf, CLR, Fuller 4-2H1, Little Knife, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2022

Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 477 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
 None.

Monday, October 24, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.

Sunday, October 23, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA,

Saturday, October 22, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H,
38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB,
38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX,

Friday, October 21, 2022: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 472 for the year.
38603, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HW,

Thursday, October 20, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 471 for the year.
38858, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HIL,

Wednesday, October 19, 2022: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 470 for the year.
38365, conf, CLR, Fuller 5-2H,

Tuesday, October 18, 2022: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 469 for the year.
38849, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR,
38366, conf, CLR, Fuller 4-2H1,

Monday, October 17, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Sunday, October 16, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Saturday, October 15, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None

Top Story Of The Week -- October 15, 2022

Updates

Later, 10:36 p.m. CT: the poll is out. 

• Tennessee jumped to #3;
• Alabama dropped to #6.
• USC dropped from #6 to #12 after a one-point loss to Utah.
• Utah jumped from #20 to #15 after that one-point win over USC.

Original Post 

How far will Alabama fall in the ratings? The AP poll will be released tomorrow, Sunday, October 16, 2022, about noon.

Projected ratings here.

Preliminary Discussion -- Crescent Point, Three-Mile Laterals -- October 15, 2022

I've delayed getting into this one because I don't have a lot to offer yet. Perhaps readers may know more.

A long-time reader sent me this query:

Can you do a report on the 3rd level oil reserves in ND? 

Interests: 158-101(KODA) and 159-101 (Crescent Point)

Crescent Point told reader they would be doing three-mile-long laterals in the "third level oil reserves."

• they say it’s more economical and the NDIC wants companies to drill longer laterals.
• what do you know about this? Does it really payoff in the long run? How much more does it cost to run an extra 1mile horizontal leg? 
• I did notice that Crescent point did a pooling interest in almost all of 158 -101. It seems they are trying to create 3-mile-horizontal drilling units / 3-mile-long horizontals
  

What do you know about KODA?

***********************************
Preliminary Thoughts

Crescent Point view, February 21, 2020: link here.
Crescent Point, 2Q22, results, link here. And, here.
Crescent Point, 2Q22, results, corporate presentation.

• unfortunately, over the years, with regard to the Bakken boom, corporate presentations (all operators) have trended toward less operational information and more financial information

1. Yes, it is accurate that the NDIC is pushing for longer laterals, specifically, three-mile long / three-section laterals.

• at the beginning of the boom, the standard quickly became two-mile laterals
• time was of the essence at the beginning of the boom; time more important money
• longer laterals: took more time; NDIC had not approved longer drilling units; subject to increased risk of falling short of planned TD
• it took upwards of 60 days to drill a two-mile horizontal; now they're drilling the horizontal portion in less than six days; not that much longer to drill an extra mile
• Crescent Point says they averaged 14 days/well on a recently completed pad; seems a bit long;
  

2. The cost:

• the big cost is now fracking, not drilling
• drilling: day rates on rigs; time to drill
• fracking: hard to find frack spreads; sand is very expensive; worse: transportation costs are surging -- diesel now trending towards $5 / gallon or more
• if current wells are costing $6 million, could three-mile-laterals cost $9 million

3. Crescent Point is one of the handful of Bakken operators still drilling

4. "Third level oil reserves": I assume Crescent Point meant "Tier 3" (economical/financial term) and not formation (first level: middle Bakken; second level: Three Forks, first bench; third level: Three Forks, second level), but I could be wrong.

5. I will start watching Crescent Point more closely:

• permits
• planned TD (two-mile vs three-mile)
• quarterly reports for well costs

6. KODA

• I can find very, very little on KODA.

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