Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Apple Trying To Hold The Line On Price Increases -- September 28, 2022

Link here.

From the linked story:

The report claims that Apple, the largest customer of TSMC, has rejected the supplier's plans to increase chip prices next year. TSMC has been planning to increase its prices by six to nine percent, depending on the fabrication process.

TSMC's chips were already around 20 percent more expensive compared to those from its direct rivals, but smaller foundries have ramped up their own prices in recent years due to higher material and logistics costs, and TSMC has committed to $100 billion in new investment over the next three years, motivating the company to increase its prices to maintain its premium and pass added costs on to clients.

TSMC was also reportedly keen to stop its clients from canceling orders and ordering more chips than needed in the hope of securing production line space and additional support from contract chipmakers, which has made it difficult for the company to understand real demand.

Following negotiations, Apple has apparently refused to accept further price increases. TSMC makes all of Apple's custom silicon chips, but Apple is estimated to make up more than one quarter of TSMC's entire revenue, meaning that the companies are fairly reliant upon each other. An improvement in the semiconductor industry's supply outlook despite inflation is believed to have hardened Apple's refusal to acquiesce to price hikes.

Apple probably has more "leverage" than most.

Incredible Wells -- Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust -- Charlson Oil Field -- Updated -- September 28, 2022

These are incredible wells. Production data updated.

Link here.

A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust Well Just Went Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- Charlson -- September 28, 2022

The well:

  • 29978, 1,209, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-3H, Charlson, t8/18; cum 460K 12/20; cum 600K 7/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202231584556932073377693747974
BAKKEN6-2022305579565718663319232877106
BAKKEN5-202231531654561632312603100935
BAKKEN4-20223056605633164333138293853544
BAKKEN3-2022316153609816513340732995196
BAKKEN2-202228574357151562320973186933
BAKKEN1-20223164166456182338331381150
BAKKEN12-20213168696812190340495402790
BAKKEN11-202130653166021993415594132624
BAKKEN10-202131737472702057452274499617
BAKKEN9-20213071867226220344846436151022
BAKKEN8-202131729573712166446774444813
BAKKEN7-2021317866775923014757547100259
BAKKEN6-2021307617774723764910648625272
BAKKEN5-2021318526850925015405453655183

A Hess AN-Gudbranson Well Just Went Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- September 28, 2022

The well:

  • 33533, 2,444, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-8, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum 339K 10/19; cum 601K 7/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223140754077150620689206890
BAKKEN6-20223039873978163618972189711
BAKKEN5-20222947164678164216673166730
BAKKEN4-20222326292634133211227112270
BAKKEN3-20223149415058245120158186701488
BAKKEN2-20222641184102206915704136822022
BAKKEN1-202227414441581388210412098655
BAKKEN12-202130528552651994324353242015
BAKKEN11-20213058185732283037241372347

For The Archives -- Follow-Up In 2027 -- September 28, 2022

For the archives.

Oil: Link here. Charles Kennedy.

From the linked article:

Oil and gas executives told the Dallas Fed that recession remains a key concern ....

“It’s tough to tell where these crosscurrents are headed. On one hand, we don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the two-year to 10-year Treasury yield curve is inverted, implying recession, and China is on lockdown basically every other day, so that means lower prices in the near term (probably),” one executive commented.

However, the same executive noted, while long-term demand is strong and OPEC continues to underperform, “shale core exhaustion” and inventory concerns remain key issues.

“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and U.S. production will be down 20 to 30 percent quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold,” the executive concluded.

When asked about expectations of a significant tightening of the oil market by 2024, one executive noted that the market is already tight, suggesting spot market prices are not based on true fundamentals.

“I struggle to understand why spot oil prices are as low as they are today and why there is still backwardation in the forward curve. It appears to me that the world is very short on supply, with big draws in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories still taking place even after a significant increase (and now leveling off) in North American drilling and completion activity,” the executive commented, adding that OPEC has “for the first time ever” acknowledged that there is no spare capacity.

Additionally, once China reverses its zero-COVID policy, demand will be driven up, while more Russian oil will be moved off the market pushing demand further.