There will be a way to track this. Will discuss later.
Sunday, July 31, 2022
Anticipation -- July 31, 2022
In the graphic below:
- five days, Monday - Friday;
- each day with two columns (except Friday): pre-market and after-market
Highlights:
- Monday: Devon, Diamondback (FANG)
- Tuesday: MPC, Pioneer, Coterra, BP, OXY, Starbucks
- Wednesday: MRO, Apache (APA)
- Thursday: COP, EOG, Cheniere
Must-watch television:
- CNBC, Jim Cramer, 7:45 a.m. to 8:15 am.
Focus On Fracking -- July 31, 2022
The lede:
Natural gas prices hit a 14 year high but closed lower; US oil exports were at a record high; US oil supplies were at new 18 year low, Strategic Petroleum Reserve was at a 37 year low; 4 week average of distillate exports hit a 47 month high.
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA.
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 22nd indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR, increased production from our wells, and a refinery slowdown, we still needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 21st time over the past 35 weeks, mostly because of another big increase in our oil exports.
Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 355,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,164,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 156,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 789,000 barrels per day to a record high of 4,548,000 barrels per day, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 1,616,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending July 22nd, 1,144,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week.
Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly 200,000 barrels per day lower at 12,100,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 13,716,000 barrels per day during the July 22nd reporting week.
With our oil exports at a record high, we'll include a historical graph of them [at the linked blog], where you can see that prior to the end of 2014, US oil exports, except for those allowed under NAFTA, had been negligible because they had been banned 40 years earlier, in the wake of the Arab oil embargo. The ban on US oil exports was lifted in a spending bill that Congress passed during the last week of 2015, part of a compromise that Obama agreed to in order to avoid a government shutdown.
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After Hours
I had the apartment complex pool to myself this evening, from about 7:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. Then a few folks came out to grill and wade in the pool.
I swam almost non-stop from 7:30 to 9:30 and listened to Leonard Cohen, Blondie, Bob Dylan from the UE "boombox."
Taking A Short Break -- Probably Not Long -- July 31, 2022
Wow, that new NDIC GIS map server is absolutely incredible. I keep finding new features. In hindsight, it was well worth the wait, but one still wonders why it took so long? But it no longer matters. The new interactive map is incredible.
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For Investors Only
UBS surveyed its analysts for stocks with attractive upside vs. downside in volatile markets.
"We've focused on stocks where we believe our analysts have a truly differentiated view vs. consensus, and where we have interesting or proprietary data sources (from UBS Evidence Lab or elsewhere)," strategist Keith Parker wrote in a note. "From a strategy perspective, we've found that risk/reward is attractive when this much recession risk is priced (>80pctl) but as we move later cycle, avoiding the biggest underperformers becomes even more important for portfolio returns."
"Indeed, our analysts have identified opportunities with attractive upside vs downside skew in these volatile markets."
The top conviction picks by sector are at the link. Archived.
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Tow Trucks
The two-year twins "know" tow trucks very, very well. They see them on their street often. They've been looking for their own tow trucks for quite some time, and finally, they found them.
America's New Energy Crisis -- WSJ -- July 31, 2022
A reader sent me the link to a WSJ article to post.
This was my reply:
I was eager to read the article when I saw the headline yesterday, but was quite disappointed in the tone of the article. So much was wrong with the article.It appears today's journalists have a pre-conceived notion about energy and then write articles like this one to push their agenda. This reads more like an op-ed than a news story.
I'm not sure how to handle it on the blog: simply post it without comment or post my thoughts? The problem is, it would take up too much of my time.
I think I will post the link and move on. Too much other stuff to cover.
The writer, Christopher M Matthews has a resume to give him the credibility to write the article but somehow he missed the mark.
Okay, two three four five six seven comments:
The article reads like it will be a chapter in a new book yet to be written. There is nothing new in the article.
At the end of the day, it comes down to making American great again or following Greta down the wind-turbined road. The latter won't succeed of course, and a 79-year-old political relic won't be able to thread the needle.
But this is simply amazing: the US shale revolution was the biggest energy story in decades, perhaps the biggest energy story ever. There are hundreds of oil men and women that made it happen, and scores of shale companies that were instrumental in the success of the shale revolution, and how does Matthews cover it? It seems a third of the article was devoted to one inconsequential shale company: Bonanza Creek Energy. To say I was flabbergasted would be an understatement. What about Chesapeake, Continental Resources, Pioneer, Devon, EOG, to name just a few?
The author glosses over huge missteps made by the Biden administration and is less than candid about how Biden literally keystoned America and continues to gaslight voters.
I'm getting tired of the meme, "... gasoline prices have fallen to less than $4.30 a gallon ..." Prices never should have gotten above four dollars to begin with. Bragging that gasoline has fallen to less than $4.30 a gallon is gaslighting. What was the price we paid just a couple of years ago? $1.99? What happened in less than eighteen months? The writer provides no historical perspective on the price of gasoline, except in passing just before he started writing about Bonanza Energy Creek.
Do a single-word article search, do a word-search for "refineries" in the article. Not mentioned once.
Talk about a very, very unsatisfying conclusion to the article.
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