Dire Straits -- March 8, 2022

I don't want to alarm folks but remember all those "fallout bomb shelters" in the 1950s. Something tells me we need to start hoarding non-perishable staples for the empty shelves that we will see this summer. Just saying. Rice, beans, that would be a good start. Spam. Bottled water.

I keep hoping that things will stabilize, but even after-hours, crude oil continues to rise. 

Crude oil:

• WTI: $125.00; up another $1.31 since the close.
• Brent: $129.90; up another $1.88 since the close. Let's call it $130 to keep it simple.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Yield pretty much unchanged, at 1.847%.
  
• DXY: link here. Getting ever closer to 100. Now at 99.02.
  
• Silver: link here. Up another 1/3%; now at $27.
  
• Gold: link here. Up $43. Wow, wow, wow, the y-axis had to be changed; gold now solidly above $2,000; hit a high of $2,605 before dropping back to $2.040.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Surprise, surprise, actually dropped back a bit, at the close, 35.13, down 3.62%. 

If we survive this, and I'm not sure we will, those holding gold, silver, nickel, oil in almost any form should do very, very well. 

I think the tipping point was the story of the day: international leaders no longer taking phone calls from Washington, DC.

Actually, there were two stories.

First, the aforementioned telephone story. 

But even bigger, this story. 

Quick, name any western leader, other than Zelenskyy that is seen as a leader in this crisis. Right now, Putin and Muhammed Bin Salman are the leaders from the East; they're the only ones I can name. And, right, wrong, indifferent, by definition they must be the only two adults in the room. But, from the west, quick! Name any western leader with any gravitas right now. Macron is the only European leader I can actually name. Boris is a Brit, not a European. Quick, name the German leader. The Spanish leader. The Italian leader. Who is head of the UN? The west has no leader.

So, if the tipping point was today when the lead story was that international leaders won't take Biden's phone calls. What comes next? 

That's pretty pessimistic, isn't it?

The good news? Right now I don't see any of the adults leading in Washington. If the likes of Biden, Kamala, Pelosi, Schumer, Elizabeth Warren are the varsity team by virtue of where they stand (or sit), the junior varsity team looks pretty darn good: the likes of Warren Buffett, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Harold Hamm, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates ad infinitum. The junior varsity team won't let things collapse. And these guys are backed up by the best military and intelligence agencies in the world. 

Not to worry. At some point, our junior varsity team, like the oligarchs in Russia, will say enough is enough. And then the adults in Washington, DC, will take over.

Things had to have looked awful bleak December 7, 1941, but somehow the junior varsity team turned things around and things finally got back on track. This might be as good a time as any to read the biography of Admiral Nimitz. 

A footnote:

Nimitz was court-martialed and found guilty of neglect of duty, but due to his otherwise excellent record and willingness to admit his own fault, was only issued a letter of reprimand.

And, of course, the rest is history.

But, wow, it's going to take a lot of loud rock 'n roll music to put me in a good mood.

Put your headphones on and play this really, really loud:

Sultans of Swat, Dire Straits

I started this essay about twenty minutes ago. Let's check the price of crude oil:

• WTI, up 80 cents, now trading at $125.80
• Brent, up 80 cents, now trading at $130.70.

WTI: over $125.
Brent: over $130.

Gotta play the music louder.

Five minutes later:

• WTI: $126.20.
• Brent: $131.10

Next morning, Wednesday, March 9, 2022: oil "crashes." Well, sort of.

• WTI: down $3.53, trading pre-market at $120.20
• Brent: down $3.08, trading pre-market at $124.90

Putin's reality: I have no idea what the truth is coming out of the Ukraine, but it certainly appears that Ukraine, with minimal help from NATO, the west, or the US, in part or in whole, has significantly slowed Russia's advance. 

I don't know if that's true, but that certainly seems to have a kernel of truth, as they say. Let's say that's accurate. Putin had 50% of his entire mechanized tank inventory invade Ukraine. Everyone knows that US A-10s with US F-15s providing air support could have taken that convoy out in a heartbeat. 

Official date of invasion, February 24, 2022. I said it was a "race against time" for Putin. I said he had ten days. It's now been, since the invasion began, thirteen days: four days in February, nine days in March. Maybe I was a bit optimistic. Smarter folks than I now say Putin's Russia will be insolvent by the end of March. 

But if that's true, something suggests to me that North Korea, China, and Putin know the military and economic strength of the west.

World Leaders Not Even Accepting His Phone Calls Now? March 8, 2022

I have a very sane, well-balanced twitter feed. This was the main story today: international leaders not taking phone calls from President Biden.  

Link here.

Link here. 

That ban on Russian oil? It was MSNBC that finally forced the president's hand. Leading from behind. What did the president do when he finally announced his decision?

World leaders watch the president's schedule very, very closely. 

Today, the president flies to Cow Town, Texas, lands at a landlocked naval joint reserve air base closed off to crowds and the press, met by a few military leaders, and the president gives an uninspiring speech to military veterans at a VA hospital that no one even knew existed. 

Meanwhile, Putin continues to commit war crimes against humanity, and seriously, can anyone spot any leader in the western world willing to really get involved. The Ukrainians are pretty much on their own. How much worse can it get? 

By the time US gasoline gets to $7.00 / gallon it will literally be too late.

Builds starting tomorrow.

Atmospheric CO2 -- February, 2022

Link here.

*******************
Ukranian Easter Eggs 

Link here.

Pysanky. 

The Most Beautiful Eggs in the World! 

Pysanky, Ukrainian Easter eggs (Pysanka is the singular form), are renowned around the world. They are an iconic image which heralds spring. The decorative eggs date back to early Slavic cultures, perhaps even paleolithic times. Many of the design motifs harken from pre-Christian times.

Daily Activity Report -- March 8, 2022

Keystone XL: canceling the Keystone XL may have been Biden's biggest blunder. Link to Robert Rapier. I did not read the article because I did not care but it was his biggest blunder because there was no way out, no way he can go back on this. One possible solution: have the operator change the name of the proposed pipeline, have the BLM bless it via "emergency use authorization," put Hunter in charge, and move on. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 

$124.30	3/8/2022	03/08/2021	03/08/2020	03/08/2019	03/08/2018
Active Rigs	31	16	55	67	59

One new permit:

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Winner (Williams)
• Comments: 
• Crescent Point Energy has a permit for a DeFrance well in SESW 12-158-100; 
• to be sited 350 FSL and 1595 FWL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38356, 1,452, CLR, Dolezal FIU 9-5H,
• 38049, 562, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H,
• 38420, 181, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
• 38421, 5, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,

Unused pipe for Keystone XL at Gascoyne, ND, far southwest corner of the state. Photos taken today; reader sent me the photos. The pipe was there, the permits were there, and the workers were there. And, then just like, killed.

That's it. Read our lips. TC Energy won't take Biden's phone calls either.

Biden To Fly Into DFW (?) But Won't Visit Dallas -- Headed To Ft Worth, TX -- March 8, 2022

Updates

March 9, 2022: wow, well played by the Biden team. Huge head fake. 

President Biden announced the ban on Russian oil, natural gas, and coal and then flew to Ft Worth, Texas. It was rumored that he was going to Texas to talk oil, which, of course, made no sense at all (see original post: going to Ft Worth to talk oil? Oh, give me a break). He kept to his schedule. Following the SOTU speech in which he spend a good deal of time on curing cancer and medical care for veterans, where does he go? He heads to a VA hospital in Texas to talk, not about oil, or Ukraine, but about curing cancer and medical care for veterans. Wow, huge head fake. Well played.

Again, as I've said before, I would rather have "a Biden" in the White House right now than "a Trump."

Original Post 

To talk oil. LOL. 

He must have a geography issue. In order of preference if coming to talk oil in Texas:

• Midland
• Odessa
• Houston
• Dallas
• Plano
  
• Ft Worth (maybe)
• with what they "talk" in Ft Worth, Jen Psaki will feel right at home (see comments)
  

You come to Ft Worth to talk cattle. 

Later, 3:45 p.m. CT: according to my wife who checked the local news, President Biden has just concluded his remarks at the VA hospital in Ft Worth, Texas. This boggles the mind. Why would he fly in, seemingly at the last minute (which of course, is not accurate; this trip was in the making for a long time, one would think) to visit a VA hospital in Texas. This is more than bizarre.  

Later, 5:10 p.m. CT: we now have the reason President Biden spoke at the VA hospital in Ft Worth. It was veterans day. Not the Veterans' Day but veterans day for President Biden.

********************************
Talking Air Force

Something I found while looking for something else. 

It is impossible for me not to vicariously enjoy / experience these stories after 30 years and one day in the USAF. The medics would have been heavily involved, and most likely a nurse, at a minimum, on every flight. It is impossible to articulate what the men and women accomplish in the military. This is just one very, very small cog in the entire operation.

The chain of command from POTUS down to the squadron commander making this happen is just incredible. POTUS - SecDef - USAF/CC - USAFE/CC - 521st AMOW/CC - 521st Operations Group/CC -- squadron commanders -- flight commanders -- a/c commanders. 

Commander of the 521 AMOW at Ramstein Air Base, Germany: Colonel Adrienne L. Williams.

When I sat in at the daily briefings chaired by a four-star general, an operation like this would have merited a single PowerPoint slide updating the command. If going smoothly no one would have commented, and the boss would have moved on. At the same time, if a plane was grounded due to lack of one part, the four-star general was kept abreast of where that part was every time it moved to a new location on its way to the disabled aircraft. No matter how small or seemingly inconsequential, if the part kept the a/c from flying the commanding general was ready to be on the phone, no so much "asking why" but "how are you going to get the part moving again?"

From Task & Purpose, September 24, 2021, humanitarian airlift out of Afghanistan:

• 521st Air Mobility Operations, Ramstein Air Base, Germany
• airlifted 124,000 people out of Afghanistan over a two week-period
• the unit is spread over 19 bases in 15 countries and 5,000 miles between the Middle East, Africa, and Europe
• it has a sister unit in the Pacific, the 515th AMOW, the 521st ...... see linked article.

When you see C-17, the "C" stands for "cargo" or "heavy." The C-17 is the largest a/c in the USAF inventory. It's in the same ballpark as the C-141, the C-5, the Boeing 747, etc. It's a big plane.

From the linked article:

At the evacuation’s height, there were more than 46 C-17s on the ramp at Al Udeid, supporting up to 35 daily launches, Quirk said, [to evacuate more than 120,000 people.]

Amid the chaos, airmen were still boarding the flights to provide water and medical care for evacuees. They also hired a local catering company to provide “three daily Afghan cuisine meals” to evacuees and had mental health professionals standing by, Quirk said.

“All of this was accomplished at the peak of summer, with daily temperatures regularly reaching in excess of 110 degrees Fahrenheit at an installation that was not designed to accommodate this type of operation,” she added.

How many passengers can a C-17 carry? Link here. Generally, about 200.

• the record: 823

For the USAF Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, the record was set last year:  

• 823 Afghan citizens, August 18, 2021, mission as noted above.
• but the US Army will note: Afghan people are small people, so it really doesn't count.
  

From the linked article:

USAF spokesperson Major Hope Cronin said on 18 August that the flight was designed for, and arrived at, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

The USAF previously estimated that there were roughly 640 passengers on this flight, but the service inadvertently included only adults. Approximately 183 children were also on board.

Maj Cronin said that the C-17 can be configured with a range of passenger options. The aircraft typically seats 102 passengers with centerline cargo seats and 138 passengers with seat pallets. The C-17 can carry 336 passengers when arranged into a humanitarian configuration where passengers are seated on the cargo floor with straps over their legs.

In the photo below, if you look hard enough, you will see Waldo, of "Where's Waldo" fame, about halfway back on the port side of the aircraft. You can just barely make out his red / white striped cap. Also, note that some folks were not wearing their USAF-issue-Covid-19 masks. I'm quite impressed that the woman near the center of the second row was wearing her mask.

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A Humorous Interlude

Mid-week edition of "PowerLine Pictures."

My absolute favorite, a Rhino and a Greta in the wild, together: