Thursday, February 3, 2022

Natural Gas Has Melted Up To $5.02 -- February 3, 2022

EQT announced it has raised its dividend to 12.5 cents. Link here. EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the Appalachian Basin. EQT has not raised its dividend since at least 2013; as far back as records are kept at this post. Unless I'm missing something or misreading something or unless there are two different "EQT"s -- this is absolutely amazing.

At the close today, natural gas "closed" at just under $5.00.

Tonight, natural gas went above $5.00. This is an orderly melt-up, not a flash-in-the-pan spike.


Also note the narrow WTI / Brent crude spread: only 74 cents.

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Heavy Oil

This goes a long way explaining why US crude oil imports are increasing, or at least staying flat in light of huge amount of oil being produced in America, and something we've talked about for a decade. And why "we" needed the Keystone XL. 


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Just Asking
 

Kraken

Locator: 10010KRAKEN.

Kraken will now be tracked here.

Updates

June 15, 2026: Kraken acquires Zavanna. Link here.

October 16, 2023: Kraken acquires Crescent Point Energy assets in North Dakota, 23,500 boepd in 2Q23. See this post. $500 million.

February 3, 2022: Kraken exits Mountrail County; will focus on Williams County.

Original Post

From the "Operators" page up until now;

Kraken Development III, LLC

Kraken Oil & Gas
Kraken Operating, LLC

Whiting Exits The DJ Basin -- February 3, 2022

Whiting is tracked here.

In an earlier post, I referenced this article in offshore-technology: Whiting to sell all of its assets in the Denver-Julesberg Basin (DJ Basin) of Colorado:

  • buyer: an undisclosed private entity for $187 million
  • 67,278 net acres
  • includes associated midstream assets
  • Weld County
  • 7,100 boepd, 51% oil
  • back-of-the-envelope:
    • $187 million / 67,278 acres = $2800 / acre
    • $187 million / 7,100 boepd = $26,000 / boepd

Answering A Reader's Question Regarding Kraken Exiting Mountrail County -- February 3, 2022

Kraken is tracked here.  

Whiting is tracked here

This post refers only to Kraken's operations in North Dakota. For Kraken's operations in Montana, see this post.

From today's daily activity report, previously posted:

Approximately 80 wells transferred from Kraken to Whiting; these are all in T152N-92W; T153N-92W; T154N-92W;  T154N-91W; some in abutting areas; familiar family names include but not limited to:

  • Fladeland;
  • Domaskin:
  • Bigfoot;
  • Double Eagle;
  • Kokomo;

See comment at that post:

  • So Kraken is exiting Mountrail completely or just partially? Where's your guess on their area of focus?

My reply:

Wow, wow, wow. That's an interesting question. That will take me down a rabbit hole that will take some time to sort out. I will come back to this. It's going to be made more difficult by the fact that the NDIC database is still not current. But give me a day or two and I will post something on this. This should be fun.

The short answer: without doing any work on this, my hunch: Kraken is going to focus on Williams County. 

Here's that rabbit hole.

1. All of those wells are in the Sanish oil field, and can be found here: oil search / NDIC.  

Kraken has 94 locations in the Sanish. Subtract out the "PNC" locations and six IA/AB/EXP locations and one ends up with 76 wells, incredibly close to the "approximate 80" wells I suggested.

2. Whiting, offshore-technology.com, July 22, 2021, just seven months ago:

  • Whiting announces acquisition deal
  • $271 million
  • to acquire from an undisclosed company (which almost always means privately held)
  • Whiting to acquire:
    • 8,752 net acres
    • net daily production: 4,200 boepd
    • includes five gross / 2.3 net drilled and uncompleted wells;
    • includes 61 gross / 395 undrilled locations in Mountrail County
  • key to this rabbit hole: "Whiting Petroleum said that these assets adjoin and complement its existing operations in the Sanish field.”

3. So, we have the first part of the rabbit hole. The Kraken wells in the Sanish were acquired by Whiting.

4. Now, the second part: to answer the question asked by the reader:

So Kraken is exiting Mountrail completely or just partially? Where's your guess on their area of focus?

5. This answer is slightly difficult because it's always possible Kraken is preparing to exit the Bakken entirely. But I seriously doubt that for several reasons, which are irrelevant for purpose of this discussion.

6. Let's assume, and I'm sure this is 99.99999% likely, that Kraken is staying in the Bakken. The question from the reader is where will Kraken focus? This would be relatively easy to answer if the NDIC data was current, but it is not. But we have an even better source: the daily activity reports which lists all newly issued permits.

7. The NDIC data base only has the Kraken wells in the Sanish oil field. NDIC is still updating their database as they migrate to a new service provider. This has been going on since last July, but I digress.

8. I went through every permit issued from full calendar year 2018 through today: four full years and the first six weeks of 2022, and every one of those permits is in Williams County, almost all of them northeast and east of Williston. I will provide a list of the specific oil fields later, but I'm burned out for the moment on this one.

9. That answers the question: Kraken will be focused on Bakken assets in Williams County

10. And, oh by the way, Kraken is reporting some incredible wells

11. One last question: how much did Whiting pay for these mineral acres on a "per acre" and/or "per boepd" basis? Back-of-the-envelope:

  • $271 million / 8,752 net acres = $31,000 / acre
  • $271 million / 4,200 boepd = $64,000 / boepd
  • I do believe this sets an all-time record for both metrics
  • Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. 

The Future Of Fracking -- The WSJ -- February 3, 2022

Shortly after I started the blog back in 2009 or thereabouts, I did the math and it looked like "they" would drill the last Bakken well in 2030 and that production would dwindle away, but still be producing oil out to about 2100, albeit, perhaps, not much production. 

More likely, this dwindling production would be uneconomical well before 2100 and all production would cease well before that. But that's fine. The key point is that back in 2009 when I did the math (as did others), it appeared that active drilling in the Bakken would continue until 2030.

Hold that thought. 

I'm going to come back to this later. 

Something of more interest has interrupted me and I will come back to this story later.  

Until then, the two sources I will be citing:

First, from earlier today:

Fracking future: doesn't look good. According to Collin Eaton at The Wall Street Journal.

Link here first to Yahoo!Finance. Not sure if that will get you past the WSJ paywall.

My first thought: this article, or variations thereof, have been re-posted every year for the past fifty years. LOL. I wonder if Collin Eaton saw the Facebook story yesterday? Just saying.

And second, the original Leigh Price paper.

Concepts, memo to self:

  • drilling vs fracking
  • MRO re-fracking program
  • not understanding tight oil
  • premise: future of oil demand 
  • consolidation
  • what is Collin Eaton's point? No one really worries about workers. 

Examples:

  • July 24, 2021: Whiting to acquire 8,752 net acres in the Sanish for $271 million; works out to about $31K / net acre. Whiting now with about 480,000 net acres. 
    • six years of drilling activity in the Bakken with a 2-rig program