Thursday, December 16, 2021

A Closer Look At The Two New MRO Bailey Oil Field Permits -- December 16, 2021

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. Numbers may not add up because I often make simple arithmetic errors. 

From the daily activity report, December 16, 2021:

Two new permits, #38702 - #38704, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for a Claude well and a Vernon well, both in NENE 30-146-93, 
    • to be sited 505 FNL and between 663 FEL and 703 FEL;

*********************************
MRO, Bailey Oil Field
And The Two Permits (see above)

The Bailey oil field is tracked here but has not been updated in a long time. It will be interesting to see the update. LOL.

Assuming the new wells, Claude and Vernon run south, there are already three active wells in that drilling unit:

  • 17255, original well drilled in 2008, thirteen years ago; and re-fracked in 2017, four years ago:
    • 465, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, t9/08;
    • 1,799, MRO, Pelton-24-31H, t4/17; cum 562K 10/21;
      • the well has produced 561,590 bbls of crude oil since it was first drilled; 
      • before the re-frack the well had produced 179,311 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 103 months);
      • after the re-frack the well produced 382,279 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 55 months)
      • after the well was re-fracked, it produced about twice as much oil in half the time that it produced prior to the re-frack
BAKKEN7-20173125626255912547718929147514540
BAKKEN6-2017241817718187196131325039107265
BAKKEN5-20173123337233662894817072108113582
BAKKEN4-2017787278599215625619763308
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017820218440163934
BAKKEN1-20173189687520768831796
BAKKEN12-20162977175618760834711
BAKKEN11-2016308348651926433659
BAKKEN10-2016318638422066814021
  • 22332, 1,318, MRO, RH 34-31H, t9/12; cum 313K 10/21; 
  • 22333, 1,086, MRO, RH 34-31TFH, t9/12; cum 210K 10/21;

CRL Reports Seven DUCs Completed; Twelve Permits Renewed (MRO and Hess); MRO With Two New Permits -- December 16, 2021

Market:

  • FedEx: huge beat; FDX up $19; up 8%;
  • Rivian: loss of $12 / share; commits to second factory in Georgia; $5 billion plant; after reporting dropped another $4 / share after hour, after dropping $6 at the close; down 10% for the day (with after-market trading)
    • EV reservations jump almost 30% from 50,000 to 80,000
    • fell short of its 2021 production target of 1,200 vehicles
    • 3Q21:
      • operational loss of $775 million vs company's forecast of $745 million - $795 million;
      • net loss of $1.23 billion vs forecast between $1.21 billion and $1.28 billion
    • revenue: $1 million (market cap: $96 billion)
  • Kellogg: company and union reach tentative agreement; average pay for union worker: $120,000 / year;

Melissa: "Fast Money"

  • AAPL headed toward $157; if so, that would be a buying point, again
  • at least one trader/talking head seems anxious, angry, almost scared 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: estimate only; based on NDIC end-of-day reporting; NDIC reports 32 active rigs, but one is a SWD rig; I did not check for duplicates:

$72.3812/16/202112/16/202012/16/201912/16/201812/16/2017
Active Rigs3114536753

Two new permits, #38702 - #38704, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for a Claude well and a Vernon well, both in NENE 30-146-93, 
    • to be sited 505 FNL and between 663 FEL and 703 FEL;

Twelve permits renewed:

  • MRO (7): all in Dunn County, but different pads, Alvina USA, Whitney USA, Reems USA, Millie USA, Pavlish USA, Terrel USA, and TR USA;
  • Hess (5): three AN-Double Bar V permits and two AN-Lone Tree permits, all in McKenzie County;

Seven DUCs reported as completed:

  • 37379, 1,220, CLR, Rodney 8-29H1, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 38269, 949, CLR, Jenson 9-8H1, Chimney Butte, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 37410, 1,387, CLR, Rodney 12-29H, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 37402, 1,405, CLR, Gale 11-32H, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 38268, 1,438, CLR, Jenson 8-8HSL, Chimney Butte, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 37375, 1,910, CLR, Gale 7-32H, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum--;
  • 37401, 1,062, CLR, Gale 10-32H1, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum--; 

The Gene/Rodney wells are tracked here. I will update that site later.

I don't have a page for the Jenson wells but perhaps I may do that later. 

The comments I made regarding CLR and DUCs yesterday continue to hold true today. 

*********************************
MRO, Bailey Oil Field
And The Two Permits (see above)

The Bailey oil field is tracked here but has not been updated in a long time. It will be interesting to see the update. LOL.

Assuming the new wells, Claude and Vernon run south, there are already three active wells in that drilling unit:

  • 17255, original well drilled in 2008, thirteen years ago; and re-fracked in 2017, four years ago:
    • 465, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, t9/08;
    • 1,799, MRO, Pelton-24-31H, t4/17; cum 562K 10/21;
      • the well has produced 561,590 bbls of crude oil since it was first drilled; 
      • before the re-frack the well had produced 179,311 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 103 months;
      • after the re-frack the well produced 382,279 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 55 months)
      • after the well was re-fracked, it produced about twice as much oil in half the time that it produced prior to the re-frack
BAKKEN7-20173125626255912547718929147514540
BAKKEN6-2017241817718187196131325039107265
BAKKEN5-20173123337233662894817072108113582
BAKKEN4-2017787278599215625619763308
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017820218440163934
BAKKEN1-20173189687520768831796
BAKKEN12-20162977175618760834711
BAKKEN11-2016308348651926433659
BAKKEN10-2016318638422066814021
  • 22332, 1,318, MRO, RH 34-31H, t9/12; cum 313K 10/21; 
  • 22333, 1,086, MRO, RH 34-31TFH, t9/12; cum 210K 10/21;

Gasoline Demand -- December 16, 2021

Link here

Karma -- My Name Is Gavin -- No Luck Like Good Luck -- December 16, 2021

Re-posting:

California breathes a sigh of relief: California to close the state's largest nuclear plant in 2024. Where's the electricity going to come from ... to power all those emission-free EVs? Yeah, coal.

***********************
Idle Rambling

Huge competition between trucking and rail.

All things being equal, rail may have competitive advantage as truck industry transitions to electricity, hydrogen. We're talking several years from now.  

UNP: up $2.00 / share today is trading at it's all-time high.

Notes From All Over -- December 16, 2021

California breathes a sigh of relief: California to close the state's largest nuclear plant in 2024. Where's the electricity going to come from?

Today's market, pre-market trading:

  • looks like BRK-B will hit an all-time high at the open
  • AAPL: impossible to say how it will trade today
  • oils: looking good
  • at the open: could get close to all-time highs across all markets

Books on my Christmas list:

  • TOPGUN: The Legacy: The Complete History of TOPGUN and Its Impact on Tactical Aviation, hardover, September 28, 2021
  • The 1619 Project: A New Origin Story, Nikole Hannah-Jones, c. 2021
  • Death & Co Welcome Home: [A Cocktail Recipe Book], Nick Fauchald, David Kaplan, November 16, 2021

AAPL: does this get your attention?