Notes From All Over -- October 28, 2021

WKRP in Cincinnati, "The Consultant":

Weeknd, "Save Your Tears":

Notes From All Over -- The Barbecue Edition -- October 28, 2021

The price of gasoline: I'm pretty glib about the price of gasoline, which is very inappropriate -- it's inappropriate for me to be glib about the price of gasoline. I don't drive much and retired, my wife and I don't need much. 

But a lot of folks are really going to start "hurting" with $4.00 gasoline across the country and trending toward $5.00 / gallon in some metropolitan areas on the east coast and west coast. 

Every time one fills up with gasoline, or every time one simply drives past a station and sees the prices they must be reminded of who is in the White House and that resident's attitude toward the oil companies and the pipeline companies. 

It's amazing to think we went from $1.79-gasoline to $3.79 gasoline in less than a year. I wonder how that happened?

I don't think it's going to be a pretty picture for any incumbent next autumn if the price of gasoline remains unchanged, or worse, trends higher.

Utility bills: this, the high price of gasoline, of course, comes on top of high utility bills we will see this winter. I think the "betting" is that utility bills, in general, will be upwards of thirty percent higher than they were last year, regardless of the severity of the winter. 

I don't notice any of that when I'm home in north Texas. I get around almost everywhere on bicycle and my utility costs will be quite minimal in the big scheme of things, But it's very noticeable when I'm visiting my grandsons in Portland, OR. Lots of traffic, and gasoline is trending toward $4.00 / gallon, and, in general, the cars look older and in worse condition than what I'm used to in north Texas. The folks in these older, battered cars don't look like the kind of folks that can handle $4.00 gasoline for very long.

On a more positive note, I just love Hulu. Here I am, well away from home, and I can tune into Hulu and watch the Thursday night NFL football game. Before Hulu, I couldn't receive Thursday night football -- "owned" by some network to which I did not subscribe.

Earlier today, we had brisket, and pulled pork, and barbecued chicken -- on a residential street less than a city block from where we live, a gentleman has a huge smoker and Thursday through Sunday has the smoker going and sells barbecue. Amazing. And excellent.

What Happens If Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Drop To Zero -- October 28, 2021

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova, and archived here:

• stocks at Cushing have halved since April 2020 market rout
• storage at Cushing alone has the potential to really rally the market to the moon
• the WTI-Brent spread is now at the narrowest it has been in just over a year

RBN Energy has also addressed the storage issue at Cushing recently, but it raises the question: if Cushing's stocks are so low, a) why is WTI still only at $82 (went down today); and, b) why is number of days of crude oil in US storage still at a relative robust 28 days?

Where is all that oil?

By the way, at the other end of the spectrum, apparently the bottom has fallen out of western heavy Canadian oil -- no one wants heavy, sour (high sulfur) oil. Even as the WTI-Brent spread narrows, the WTI-western Canadian oil spread is about as wide as it's been in a very long time.

So, folks prefer WTI and Cushing is run out of WTI. Pretty amazing.

Apple, Inc -- Earnings -- 4Q21 -- September, 2021, Quarter

Original post: Apple

• meets EPS
• misses on revenue
• shares will plunge ... and they did ... could fall as much as $8.00 after hours; trading at $145.00. Comment: anything over $145 is fine.
  
• demand robust; supply chain issues
• if Apple can't get chips, no one can get chips;
  
• Tim Cook, guidance: still expects a record 4th quarter 
• more at Macrumors.

But as the numbers come in and more information is released, a completely different picture.

Revenue: a lot was being made of missed revenue forecast, but spend some time on this graph:

For the quarter:

• revenue: $83.4 billion vs $64.7 billion, same quarter one year ago;
• new quarterly profit: $1.24 / share; vs 73 cents same quarter one year ago.
• September quarter:
• a record
• Mac and Services both set all-time records
• but look at this, gross margin was 42.2% vs 38.2% same quarter one year earlier
• dividend unchanged, to be paid November 11; record date, November 8, 2021

For the full fiscal year, 2021: shattered company records with $365.8 billion in sales; $94.7 billion in net income, up from $274.5 billion in sales and $57.4 billion in net income for fiscal 2020.

• $366 vs 275 ..... billion ... wow.

A Closer Look At The DUC Reported Completed Today -- October 28, 2021

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

• 37801, 2,530, MRO, Brusseau USA 11-3TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 130K 8/21; see this post;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	21367	21230	22211	31670	29754	558
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	27871	27820	29497	35481	33698	98
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	32563	32564	33582	39112	37182	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	30	41749	42116	55769	43482	41015	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	5	6491	5809	12412	5907	5510	0