Friday, October 8, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Part 5 -- The Social Security Edition -- October 8, 2021

Social security, two data points, link here:

  • it's a given that the COLA for 2022 will be the biggest in decades; but,
  • lobbyists say that won't be enough, and want those on social security to get an additional $1,400 stimulus check
  • oh, there's a third data point:
    • 2022 is an election year and the head of the Democrat Party is not polling well right now
    • this is not rocket science

Stimulus money:

  • billions in stimulus money but nothing to show for all that government spending
  • across the board, analysts forecast upwards of 500,000 newly employed;
  • in fact, less than 200,000 newly employed; link here;
  • like the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden celebrated the jobs figures for September, 2021, released today; thought the unemployment rate was remarkable;
  • unemployment dropped from 5.1% to 4.8% but that was mostly because women are dropping out of the work force at alarming numbers -- "dropping out of the work force" -- simply no longer looking for work

Russia: doubts persist that Russia has the natural gas capacity to "save" the EU this winter. 

Tesla: raises prices of the Model 3 and the Model Y; the Cybertruck is now Elon Musk's least expensive EV.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

WTI: Breaks $80; Seventh Weekly Gain -- October 8, 2021

Link here.



Week 40: October 3, 2021 -- October 9, 2021

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Bakken 101:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Fracking:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Hess With One New Permit; Ten Permits Renewed -- Friday, October 8, 2021

Cryptomining and flaring: see this post from June 29, 2021. Now this from ZeroHedge:

North Dakota and Wyoming have proposed tax incentives for prospective miners to set up shop and use flared gas as power. Other states are passing restrictions to limit flaring, which would incentivize energy companies to either build out their own crypto mining facilities powered with flared gas or offer a new source of cheap energy to third-party miners. 

Crusoe Energy is another company using flared gas to power 40 data centers to mine crypto and plans to expand to 100 centers next year. The company is tackling two dilemmas facing the planet today - the increasing energy footprint of the tech industry and carbon emissions associated with the fossil fuel industry.

CCP's war against crypto has resulted in the global share of Bitcoin mining in China falling from 65% in 2020 to 46% this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. experienced a surge in mining from 7% to 17%.

Active rigs, NDIC did not provide list of active rigs:

$79.35
10/8/202110/08/202010/08/201910/08/201810/08/2017
Active Rigs2613566459

One new permit, #38605:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Baskin (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has a permit for an EN-Farhart well in SEE 35-157-93; 1080 FSL and 456 FEL

Ten permits renewed:

  • Crescent Point Energy (9): the following CPEUSC permits -- Claire Rose (4); Chase Douglas (5)
  • Enerplus: a Brugh Bear permit in McKenzie County

Notes From All Over -- Part 4 -- The JOLTS Update Edition -- October 8, 2021

JOLTS:

Yesterday I asked readers if anyone had seen a JOLTS graphic more than a year old. No reply.

Today, CNBC provided a graph. I did not catch the source.

Re-posting with the CNBC data:

Request for help from readers: JOLTS -- numbers below in 1,000's (so 12,000 is twelve million)

2021, the year after the year of the plague; JOLTS went almost straight up month over month so that it ended at/near 12,000 in September 2021
  • in round numbers, it appears JOLTS runs about 4,500 - 5,000 / month
  • in round numbers, it appears JOLTS was 7,500 in 2019, just before the pandemic year of 2020
  • huge drop in JOLTs during the year of the pandemic
  • JOLTS has been around for at least a couple of decades, I do believe, but even wiki does not have a page on JOLTs, which is surprising since wiki seems to have a page on almost everything else
  • I am unable to find a graph going back more than two years regarding JOLTS
  • JOLTs seems to have become a thing only beginning in calendar year during the year of the plague, 2020, and especially now, coming out of the pandemic
  • Later, October 8, 2021: CNBC showed the JOLTS graph going back to 2005
    • in round numbers, it appears JOLTS historically runs about 4,500 - 5,000 / month
    • in round numbers, it appears JOLTS was 7,500 in 2019, just before the pandemic year of 2020
    • huge drop in JOLTs during the year of the pandemic
    • 2021, the year after the year of the plague; JOLTS went almost straight up month over month so that it ended at/near 12,000 in September 2021 

Local job market:

  • rode my bike long distance today, visiting all the sites I used to visit pre-Covid
  • "my old" bike shop had closed; the owner retired during the year of the plague; couldn't get enough bike inventory to stay in business; the building is now a gold and silver store; my hunch: it won't make it either; we mentioned that briefly yesterday: gold and silver bullion is so yesterday; the new hedge: "bitcoin," a metonym for cryptocurrency
  • stopped at Grapevine, TX, new train station food hall; this was huge; incredible; much, much nicer than Faneuil in Boston; (and much nicer prices); it's going to be a huge threat to Grapevine's Main Street; the food hall's problem: too busy and not enough staff to manage the volume of customers, especially on the weekend
  • Stacey Furniture: which we should call our second home; had a pretty good year last year;

Market:

  • stock-pickers' market
  • I would love to give examples, but this is not an investment site

Duolingo: I did not know Duolingo was a publicly traded company, ticker symbol, DUOL. Today:

  • gained $9.61 / share; up 6 percent; trading at $166/share;
  • market cap: $ 6 billion
  • P/E: N/A
  • EPS: -$2.06

Advice:

  • earlier this month / last month, among the energy stocky, a "trusted" advisor strongly advised against one energy company: Phillips 66 (PSX)
  • today, CNBC noted that "all" of the energy companies had a great month, but the company that led the list was PSX with a 13% gain in one month
  • in addition, PSX announced a dividend increase;
  • new quarterly dividend:  92 cents; record date expected to be about November 18, 2021;
  • first increase since 5/17/19 -- ten quarters at 90 cents;
  • so, there you have it;
  • I'm glad I did not act on that "advice" from the "trusted" advisor.

Spotlight corner: Gabrielle Miller. Wiki entry.

Gabrielle Sunshine Miller (born November 9, 1973) is a Canadian actress who, since the start of her career in 1993, has appeared in hundreds of television films and series episodes, including leading roles in two of Canada's most popular concurrently-running series, the sitcom Corner Gas (2004–09) and the comedy-drama Robson Arms (2005–08). 
She was also a regular or semi-regular on the TV series Pasadena (2002), Alienated (2003–04), Call Me Fitz (2012–13), Mother Up! (2013) and Good Witch (2015–16). 
Miller also had a recurring role on the television series Alienated during 2004, giving her the rare distinction of starring in three ongoing series during the same calendar year. 
She was a cast member of the Canadian television series Corner Gas, for which she won a shared Gemini Awards for Best Ensemble Performance in a Comedy Program or Series in 2007[2] and two Leo Awards for Best Performance or Host in a Music, Comedy, or Variety Program or Series (2005 and 2006). 
She is also featured in the CTV series Robson Arms for which she won another Leo Award for Best Supporting Performance by a Female in a Dramatic Series in 2007.