Tuesday, June 29, 2021

For The Archives -- The California Heat Wave -- June 29, 2021

 Link here.

  • Spot gas prices in Southern California surged 8% today to $7.08/MMBtu as the region turned to gas-fired generation to cope with the ongoing heatwave while power imports dropped.
  • Relevant tickers include SRE, EIX, PCG
  • California ISO's thermal power demand has spiked in the days since the start of the West Coast heat wave, with generation ramping up 58% to 331 GWh on June 28 from 210 GWh on June 26, 2021.
  • Yet even as total power demand rose, power imports into the state fell 36% to 85 GWh on June 28 from 133 GWh on June 26.
  • The National Weather Service forecasts the upper-level high-pressure system responsible for the heat wave could weaken by July 1.

What would the "power imports" be? Wind energy? Coal?

From the EIA:

In 2019, California was the nation's largest net importer of electricity from out of state and received about 28% of its electricity supply from generating facilities outside the state. 
More than seven-tenths of the power delivered to California from states in the Pacific Northwest was from renewable energy sources, including large federal hydroelectric facilities. 
The Southwest, including energy imports from Arizona, Baja California, Colorado, Mexico, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, and Utah, delivered power generated from renewables, natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, or other, unspecified, resources. 
Slightly more than one-fourth of the southwestern power came from renewable sources. 
About 10% of California's total electricity imports are from coal-fired power plants, but coal's total contribution to the state's electricity supply from imports and in-state generation in 2019 was less than 3%. 
Electricity supplied from out-of-state coal-fired power plants decreased following the enactment of a state law in 2006 that requires California utilities to limit new long-term financial investments in baseload generation to power plants that meet California emissions performance standards. Essentially all of California's imports of coal-fired generation are projected to end by 2026.

Some Huge Gas Wells Being Reported In The Marcellus -- June 29, 2021

Updates

June 30, 2021: from a reader regarding the original post --

That 47 MMcfd IP from Chief may certainly be impressive, but - by Marcellus standards - it is not especially noteworthy in comparison to other Northeast Pennsylvania wells. 
Chesapeake must have at least 2 dozen wells that have flowed more than that the first 30 days online. 
Chesapeake's best well - quickly rocketing to #1 all time producing status, the Deremer 2HC - produced over 50 MMcfd its first 3 months online. (50 million cubic feet/day is 8,600 boed.)
Now online 19 months, it has produced almost 19 and 1/2 Billion cubic feet ... 3,360,000 barrels of oil. 
These crazy high numbers are what prompted me to re-focus my attention to the 'gas world' of hydrocarbons with emphasis on the Appalachian Basin. 
(Although Shaleprofile has changed its format, it used to provide running, cumulative production numbers for Pennsylvania wells. Last I checked, about 20% [~2,000] had surpassed the 5.8 bcf mark ... the equivalent of a million barrel oil well).

 Original Post

Link here.


Let's see: 47 million cubic feet / day = 7,800 boepd?

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Flathead Lake

For The Archives -- OPEC Hopes To Drive Price Of Oil Down -- Opinion -- June 29, 2021

Saudi Arabia did this once before. It was a trillion-dollar mistake. Back in 2014 - 2016.

Link here.

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Tooling Around Flathead Lake

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- June 29, 2021

Facebook, re-posting this story. This time from The LA Times daily newsletter:

Facebook Inc. won a court ruling dismissing two monopoly lawsuits filed by the U.S. government and a coalition of states that sought to break up the company, dealing a blow to the effort of antitrust officials to take on the biggest tech platforms. 
The decision by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg in Washington sent Facebook shares soaring; it pushed the company’s market value to more than $1 trillion. 
Boasberg granted the company’s request to dismiss the complaints filed last year by the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general led by New York, saying in his opinion that the FTC failed to meet the burden for establishing that Facebook has a monopoly in social networking.

Walmart: to introduce a discount private label insulin brand at steep discounts for diabetes patients. Perhaps more on this later. Link at Yahoo!Finance. All I can say is where has the US government been on this one all these decades. Truly a sad, sad story.

Banks: wow, it seems like just yesterday that banks were in disfavor by all the talking heads. Hopefully, folks took advantage of that. LOL. Windfall of big bank dividends point to more shareholder return. Reported earlier: BAC announced that it will be increasing its quarterly dividend by 17%. 

Now this from Brian Cheung over at Yahoo!Finance:

The large banks are raining dividends on their shareholders after getting a clean bill of health from the Federal Reserve. And bank analysts say the windfall of capital returns is only just beginning.

Last Thursday, the Fed cleared all 23 large banks tested in its annual stress exercise, which examines each firm’s ability to withstand a hypothetical severe recession.

Facing a real recession last year, the Fed imposed restrictions on dividends and share buybacks at the large banks to preserve capital. But the stress test results last week convinced the Fed that it could lift those temporary restrictions.

As a result, several banks on Monday afternoon announced increases in their dividend plans.

Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo both doubled their dividends (to $0.70 a share and $0.20 a share, respectively). The nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase increased its dividend to $1.00 per share from $0.90 per share.

Dividends are pretty amazing. I pay a lot in income taxes on dividends, but it's very possible my cash flow from dividends before I die will be greater than the cash flow of all my other investments and other financial holdings. And that has been through very, very conservative investing which has not affected my lifestyle one bit. 

Same with "401(k)s": allowing folks to retire early. What a great country. My hunch: it is just a matter of time before Congress takes notice. This was another investment vehicle that affected my quality of life not one bit but is certainly making a difference now. f

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Computer Chips

Because of the blog, I have a pretty good "understanding" of this story. From MarketWatch, another Intel product delay drags on chip stocks, Dow. Intel revealed Tuesday that the next generation of its Xeon Scalable data-center processor, code named “Sapphire Rapids,” would come out later than expected because it was building new features into the chip.

But look at this: it's still a 10-nanometer chip. Apple is moving toward a 3-nm chip.

Last year, Intel had forecast its 10-nanometer Sapphire Rapids would come out some time in 2021, about a month after it announced a delay of its generation of 7-nanometer chips out to at least late 2022. 
In chip parlance, nanometers, or nm, refer to the size of the transistors that go on a computer chip, with the general rule being that smaller transistors are faster and more efficient in using power. 
In January, then-incoming Intel Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger started addressing the 7-nm chip delay, and in March announced aggressive plans to build out Intel’s manufacturing capabilities. 
In a note titled, “Do you want to hear the good news or the bad news
first?” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon speculated on why Intel was making this announcement because he couldn’t “imagine the company would do this unless it was necessary.” Rasgon has an underperform rating on Intel and a $43 price target.

Also here from Ian King, "Intel falls on latest server chip delay; rival AMD gains."

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Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Billionaire Duo Keeps Danaher Grip While Giving $3.3 Billion -- Bloomberg -- June 29, 2021

I posted a story about Danaher a few days ago. Now this:

Link here.

Steven and Mitchell Rales, the billionaire brothers behind industrial conglomerate Danaher Corp., shifted $3.3 billion in shares to their charitable foundations in one of the largest ever transfers of its kind.

The move earlier this month allocates billions for future donations from two of the world’s wealthiest people, who’ve eschewed the limelight while building a high-tech manufacturing empire. In addition to life sciences-focused Danaher, they own stakes in machinery company Colfax Corp. and advanced instrumentation-maker Fortive Corp.

“We’re not leaving the Earth with any money,” Mitchell told the Washington Post in 2018. “When we go, there’s not going to be money bestowed on children and grandchildren in any meaningful way.”

Steven, 70, and Mitchell, 64, are worth $10 billion and $7.9 billion, respectively, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, making them the 250th and 358th richest people in the world.

Their fortunes have been propelled by shares of Washington, D.C.-based Danaher, the firm they founded almost four decades ago. Its stock is up 22% this year to a record high, boosted by hunger for lab products and this month’s $9.6 billion cash purchase of Aldevron, a maker of the building blocks of mRNA vaccines.

Much more at the link.  

Archived. 

There are probably some interesting dots to connect. Note: "Wei" and "kaizan."