Notes From All Over -- The 4:00 A.M. Portland, Oregon, Edition -- May 25, 2021

Roaring '20s: wow, if this doesn't "encapsulate" the "roaring '20s" -- Bernard Arnault, CEO and majority owner of French luxury group LVMH, has surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to become the world’s richest person.

His estimated net worth currently stands at $186.3 billion, according to Forbes, nudging him past Bezos’s $186 billion in estimated wealth. Tesla founder Elon Musk stands third, with a net worth of $147 billion. 

That speaks volumes about the global economy. 

Maybe he will write a best-selling book, first: Democrats urge Justice Breyer to step down before midterms to "avoid another 'RBG' situation. Link here. I'm still "shocked" by the recent unanimous decision by the US Supreme Court on an immigration issue. I wouldn't think one could find any issue that everyone agrees upon in this political environment. 

Keeping America great. This has to be embarrassing to the Biden administration -- the US just keeps getting better and better (if one ignores what is going on in East St Louis, downtown Minneapolis, and Portland, OR, in general). In the last twenty-four hours, three stories highlighting how far the US has come:

• semiconductor chips: there's a shortage right now but it's temporary and the US will come out of this stronger than ever;
• apparently the US -- not France -- now leads the global fashion industry;
• and then agriculture -- Deere, Caterpillar both with incredibly earnings and guidance and now Cargill -- barreling toward its most profitable year ever. The $4.3 billion in net income in the first nine months of its 2021 fiscal year already surpasses its best ever annual profit. 

Energy: tea leaves suggest some huge stories yet to come out of North American energy. There have been a number of articles on significant increases in heavy oil coming out of Canada, and the CN / CP - KCS merger is certainly timely following Biden's decision to kill the Keystone. 

Hillary: how long has it been since we're heard a peep out of Hillary? Asking for a friend.

Golf: I did not know that Bryson and Koepka were a "thing." 

Golf: Phil Mickelson is back. Coming out of the Byron Nelson tournament a week ago, Phil Mickelson was ranked #147 in the FedEx standings. After the PGA Tournament, Phil moved into 45th place. He is now 950 points behind the tour leader. Only the top 30 get into the FedEx tour championship. The "cut" right now is Charley Hoffman, #30, 720 points behind the leader Bryson. Koepka is #11. 

Love is the answer. John Kennedy. Link here.

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Photo By Sophia

My new Skechers from Belk. I think these are the ones Tony Romo wears in the commercials. 

$59 at Belk after a 20% discount.

$59 at Amazon.com -- but no discount.

I was able to find 9.5 wide at Belk but Amazon has sold out of the 9.5 wide. The "regular" width 9.5 is available at Amazon. 

But the nice thing about Belk / Amazon. I can now re-order from Amazon if/when necessary -- now that I have the perfect fit and style. What a great country

By the way, it didn't get much press but if Amazon is successful buying MGM -- wow, what a story. Amazon Prime Video was already quite incredible; now add the MGM catalogue. Are you kidding me?

A Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Back On Line -- Huge Jump In Production -- Second Time This Has Happened For This Well -- May 25, 2021

The well:

• 16963, 423, Petro-Hunt, USA 35D-1-1H, Charlson, t12/08; cum 812K 12/20; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 3/20; see this post; recent production here; big jump in production 3/20; off line 1/21; huge production jump, 3/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	27	11813	11497	7410	11599	11416	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	20	3438	3604	1410	4636	4490	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	6593	6825	2285	8258	8049	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	7731	7679	2225	10034	9818	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	7169	7338	2687	8651	8442	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	414	0	93	335	233	97
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	101	0	0	124	124	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	103	0	0	107	107	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	27	4357	5061	193	5507	5319	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	22	6004	5365	2128	6486	6337	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Scout Energy's Dinsdale I-3 Just Went Over Four Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- May 25, 2021

The well:

• 14209, 5,106, Scout Energy/Denbury, Dinsdale 1-3, Lodgepole, Stadium, s12/96, t2/97, cum 4.021159 million bbls 3/21; still producing 2,500 bbls/month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
LODGEPOLE	3-2021	30	2323	2310	2346	1250	1250	0
LODGEPOLE	2-2021	28	2263	2273	22274	1188	1144	44
LODGEPOLE	1-2021	31	2583	2578	24597	1361	1339	22
LODGEPOLE	12-2020	31	2525	2530	23771	1316	1248	68
LODGEPOLE	11-2020	30	2540	2546	21632	1328	1291	37
LODGEPOLE	10-2020	31	2602	2621	17569	1403	1161	242
LODGEPOLE	9-2020	29	2286	2283	19677	1259	566	693
LODGEPOLE	8-2020	31	2637	2628	24620	1508	1508	0
LODGEPOLE	7-2020	31	2689	2737	24576	1580	1580	0
LODGEPOLE	6-2020	30	3169	3212	38447	1707	1707	0
LODGEPOLE	5-2020	31	2905	2722	24205	1216	1216	0
LODGEPOLE	4-2020	30	2901	2989	18671	1456	1456	0
LODGEPOLE	3-2020	31	2591	2598	16476	1487	1030	457
LODGEPOLE	2-2020	29	2647	2621	16193	1468	1205	263

 

Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Portland Edition -- May 24, 2021

This is not a contrarian opinion. I'm seeing variations of this across social media:

It was also noted that Europeans are still not flying; driving instead. Distances much shorter in Europe than in US. France wants to shut down flights of short duration.  

If crude oil surges and gasoline trends toward $5/gallon in California it will have nothing to do with President Biden killing Keystone XL but there will be no shortage of folks like me trying to make the connection. LOL. 

I agree with Peter Sutherland's assessment above. I probably did not have to point that out. 

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Cabot - Cimarex

The merger was probably a one-off but it does suggest that US drillers are getting increasingly acquisitive.

In the Bakken, my hunch is Whiting is still in play after all these years. Market cap of $1.7 billion. 

EOG, market cap: $46.77 billion. 

Enerplus, market cap: $1. 58 billion. 

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LNG Export Terminals

Sabine Pass train 6 and Calcasieu ahead of schedule.

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Word of the Day: Scud

It's interesting how folks just accept some words without questioning the etymology. I'm very, very guilty of that. 

For me, "scud" is one of those words. Most Americans probably first heard the word during "the Gulf War." I'm sure that was true for me, also. I heard the term often but I never thought about the origin of the word.

While on the flight yesterday from DFW to Portland, Oregon, while reading Sailing Around The World, Joshua Slocum, the illustrated edition, c. 2016, with the original printing in 1890, I came across the word. 

From page 17:

I had read somewhere of a fishing-schooner hooking her anchor into a whale, and being towed a long way and at great speed. This was exactly what happened to the Spray -- in my dream! 

I could not shake it off entirely when I woke and found that it was a the wind blowing and the heavy sea now running that had disturbed my short rest. 

A scud was flying across the moon. A storm was brewing; indeed, it was already stormy.  I reefed the sails, then hauled in my sea-anchor, and setting what canvas the sloop could carry, headed her away for Monhegan light, which she made before daylight on morning of the 8th. 

It turns out, we've all seen scuds, often. I certainly have. From "finedictionary, "Scud - definitions, definition #4:

• scud: loose, vapory clouds driven swiftly by the wind;
• "Borne on the scud of the sea."
• "The scud was flying fast above us, throwing a veil over the moon.

When used by a sailor, it probably foreshadows a squall. From nauticed.org, "a name given by sailors to the lowest clouds, which are mostly observed in squally weather." Sort of when a dog hears "yada, yada, yada, walk, yada, yada, yada" when a sailor hears the captain saying "yada, yada, yada, scud, yada, yada, yada" his heart skips a beat.

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Too Cool For School

Last week of school. 

Amazon Deal For MGM Could Come Be Announced In Less Than 24 Hours -- Apple Continues To Think Different -- May 24, 2021

See this post from May 2, 2021.

My concluding paragraph:

That's the problem with Apple TV. It has no content. I subscribe to Apple TV (still for free. Well, almost free: one cent per month). Apple needs to do something and needs to do something this year if it wants to "save" Apple TV. Every month it waits, the gap between Apple and Amazon, and the gap between Apple and Netflix widens. At some point the moat may be too big for Apple to bridge. Especially if Amazon acquires the MGM catalogue. 

So, today we learn: Amazon deal to acquire MGM to come as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday, May 25, 2021.

One wonders if Apple even considered going after MGM. If not, it confirms that Apple continues to "think different.

It certainly seems Apple has no desire to be seen as simply airing reruns along with other streaming networks. Having said that, I watch Hulu "all the time," and haven't watched a thing on Apple TV+.

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Glut Of Cash Complicates Things;
Short Term Interest Rates Have Plummeted To Historic Lows

Glut of cash. Link here. Six-month treasury at .... drum roll ... 0.02% -- that's not 2%. That's not even 0.2%. It's 0.02%. A year ago, it was almost 0.2%. Life insurance companies must be having a heck of a time.

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Electric Truck Startup Lordstown Starting To Look Down

Lordstown Motors will sharply cut back its production outlook for its electric truck and still, it needs to raise more capital. 

Just-in-time inventory generally means that companies have two weeks worth of inventory parts on hand. Lordstown Motors says it has all the semiconductor chips it needs to meed met production goals for the year. 

Link here.  

The company posted a loss of 72 cents a share, incredibly worse than the consensus 25-cent-loss, and almost five times worse than the 16-cent-loss one year ago. 

RIDE's year-end liquidity went from an expected $200 million two months ago to just $50 million announced today. Lordstown is burning through cash at a stunning rate. Forecast revenue for 2021E down to basically $0 and CAPEX + OPCOSTS surging. 

Didn't they say that about Tesla years ago?

But backed by GM, the company has very, very deep pockets. Not to worry.

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PG&E To Move Out Of San Francisco

Will move across the bay to Oakland. 

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"202One?"
CDC, US SecState: "Here, Hold My Flag"

CDC and State Department: highest-level warning -- Americans should not visit Japan. At this level everything is political. 

Did either clear this with President Biden? Was Japan called before this announced?

Japanese Olympics in July. This is almost June. 

More and more Japanese businesses say "NO" to "202One."