Monday, April 12, 2021

Stratigraphic Well Coming Off Confidential; Not Projected To Produce -- April 12, 2021

Well coming off confidential list:

  • 37833, drl/drl, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1, wildcat, lot 1 section 18-145-82; target: Precambrian; 

According to the permit:

  • application for permit for new well -- vertical stratigraphic test.
  • objective: stratigraphic well, future surveillance, or injection well;
  • geologic objectives: Inyan Kara, Black Island/Deadwood formations;
  • operator: Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC; Underwood ND 58576
  • surface owner: Falkirk Mining Company, Bismarck, ND 58501
  • county: McLean
  • to a depth of:
  • Precambrian, a depth of 9,825 feet
  • my hunch: 
    • Inyan Kara: CO2 storage?
    • Deadwood formation: produced water injection (SWD)

Cornucopia -- Re-Posting With Updates -- April 13, 2021

Updates 

April 30, 2021: cornucopia in Iowa -- Reuters. 

April 12, 2021: for investors -- two words -- Deere John.

April 12, 2021: from Breitbart --

America is China’s top supplier of corn so far in 2021, Chinese media noted Sunday, with corn prices in China at record highs.

Corn is used in China for feeding pigs — pork is the nation’s most popular meat — making it an indispensable crop. Increased demand for corn follows not just a devastating African swine flu outbreak that sent pork prices soaring, but torrential floods that destroyed much of China’s 2020 crop yield and raised concerns of food shortages in the world’s most populous nation.

Original Post

US farmers celebrate as corn exports near records. Link here. 

Reuters reports US corn exports "have blown past nearly every benchmark" as China, the world's largest food and ag importer, appears to be ramping up purchases of US farm goods. 
What's mildly funny is how China has begun to purchase large amounts of farm goods from the US under the Biden administration. 
According to official US export data Wednesday, February's corn exports recorded 6.3 million tons. 
The amount topped "2008's record for the month by 17% and is the largest monthly volume since July 2018," said Reuters. A few months back, December's corn exports exploded to 13-year highs. The first-quarter outlook already suggests record volumes. 

Even a caveman can "read" this graph: the graph says that under the Obama administration, things were simply incredibly awful. 

By the way, this will lead to a stand-along commentary when I get caught up. 

The other day I noted:

  • Got corn? Corn futures rise to highest since 2013 before USDA report. 

Here's the link and the story:

Chicago corn futures climbed more than 3% on Thursday, April 8, 2021, to hit their highest since 2013, as the market was buoyed by smaller-than-expected US planting.

Another metric that doesn't matter (don't take that out of context).

Google search on the blog for "corn."

Back on February 13, 2013 -- note the Reuters date above -- coincidental? I think not -- Don sent me a great story. Here's the blog link with the story link "inside": 

Narrow-row corn just got narrower. Stine Seed Company planted and harvested 2,500 acres of 12-in.-row corn in central Iowa last year. A hybrid designed for high density production yielded 320 to 330 bu./acre on the cropland.
“(The fields) were up where we had a little extra rain and a little extra nitrogen on it,” reports Harry Stine, president, Stine Seed. “Most of our other yields were much lower with a farm average of 145 bu./acre (mostly 22½-in. rows).”
The trend to 20- and 15-in.-row corn has been around for years. But interest in even narrower rows such as 12 in. has increased as growers seek the elusive 300 bu./acre yield mark.

That's for the "average" farmer. 

David Hula isn't average. 

David Hula grows 600-bushel+ corn. Link here. This was just one year ago, January 6, 2020.

Meanwhile, from the USDA just a few days ago:

Increased acreage and higher yields for corn and soybeans allowed both crops to return to more typical production levels, according to the 2020 Crop Production Annual Summary released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

U.S. corn growers produced 14.2 billion bushels, up 4% from 2019. Corn yield in the United States is estimated at 172.0 bushels per acre, 4.5 bushels above the 2019 yield of 167.5 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain, at 82.5 million acres, is up 1% from 2019.

Soybean production for 2020 totaled 4.14 billion bushels, up 16% from 2019. With record high yields in Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, and Tennessee, the average soybean yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, 2.8 bushels above 2019, but 0.5 bushel below the Nov. 1 forecast.

For 2020, all cotton production is down 25% from 2019, at 15.0 million 480-pound bales. The U.S. yield is estimated at 825 pounds per acre, up 2 pounds from last year’s yield. Harvested area, at 8.70 million acres, is down 25% from last year.

Also released today were the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and Grain Stocks reports. The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report provides the first indicator of this year’s winter wheat acreage. Planted area for harvest in 2021 is estimated at 32.0 million acres, up 5% from 2020.

********************************
Chicks

Sophia's first grade class is learning about "life cycles," from eggs to adults.

They observe the eggs ("candling the eggs") and make notes every few days in their science journals.

They now have a webcam as the chicks start to hatch. I don't suppose the webcam will be up for too many days, but there it is.

There were originally nineteen eggs. It appears two eggs did not develop (based on "candling"). The first of seventeen chicks has hatched.

Thank You, Harold Hamm -- April 12, 2021

Updates

April 12, 2021:

Original Post



Once the convoys are in motion, does it matter how long the transit time? Only for the guys in the back room wearing green visors.

 

Notes And Comment -- April 12, 2021

Facebook breach: how to determine if your account was hacked -- haveibeenpwned: 

  • enter e-mail or telephone number
  • I have no idea if it works, if it's safe, or if it's a scam, also. I have not tried it and will not try it. 

Saudi: I think this is a re-hash of a story previously published but schadenfreude made me do it -- the $7 trillion reason why Saudi Arabis is cutting oil production. Link here. 

Qatar: could challenge America's ambitious LNG plans. Link here. 

Summer driving: rapidly approaching. Full article here.

A multi-speed recovery: link at ArgusMedia. 

India: we'll come back to this one. Link here. Graphic pending. 

California: $4-gasoline on the horizon. Link here. 

****************************
Investing Basics

Dow Jones 101: link here.

Pop quiz! Quick: what is the "divisor"? Why is there a "divisor"? Essay, worth 25 points.

Extra credit, 25 points: what's the divisor today? Link here.

S&P 500: link here. 

Pop quiz! Quick: name the one FAANG stock that is not in the top ten "biggest stocks" in the S&P 500 as noted at the link. 

*******************************
The Wine-Tasting Page

A visit to Michele Chiarlo Vineyards and Winery. Link here.

WTI Surges -- Well, Sort Of -- April 12, 2021

Wow, what a great way to start a week: the market is down (another buying opportunity) and WTI is up for some unknown reason (CBS 60 Minutes, inflation), up over 2%; up over $1.20/bbl; and trading over $60. 

Favorite graph: this graphic has appeared numerous times over the past couple of years. Some accept it, some don't. Whatever. I think it's pretty close to "accurate."

The difference between previous administration and this administration:

  • previously: tweet, get 'er done;
  • now: announce a new committee; a new White House summit;

MLB: move $100 million  --

  • from "black" majority city,
  • to "white" majority city,
  • and, call it racial justice. 
  • others call it karma.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$60.57
4/12/202104/12/202004/12/201904/12/201804/12/2017
Active Rigs1536635951

Wells coming off the confidential list this week  --

  • Monday, April 12, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year:
    None.
  • Sunday, April 11, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 87 for the year: 
    • 37833, conf, Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, MAG 1, wildcat, lot 1 section 18-145-82; target: Precambrian; see this note;
  • Saturday, April 10, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:
    None.

RBN Energy: Patoka crude oil terminals and outbound pipelines, part 3.

It is impossible to overstate the significance of the crude oil hub in Patoka, IL, to refineries in the Midwest. The seven-terminal hub, whose 80-plus above-ground tanks can hold more than 17 million barrels of crude oil, serves as the primary storage, blending, and staging site for a dozen refineries in five states with a combined capacity of more than 2.6 MMb/d. In other words, if the folks that keep Patoka running decide to take a couple of days off, Midwest refining would pretty much grind to a halt. And that’s not all: the southern Illinois hub also plays a critical role in sending crude oil south to the Gulf Coast. Today, we conclude our series on the Patoka hub with a look at the infrastructure within the facility’s boundaries and the pipes that transport oil out of it.

This is the third and final episode in our review of the second-largest crude oil hub in PADD 2, the largest being Cushing in Oklahoma. As we said in Part 1, the Patoka hub has undergone a number of changes since the late 1930s and early ’40s, when it first emerged as a regional storage and pipeline center to support the area’s then-thriving crude oil production. As Illinois production declined, these midstream assets made Patoka a natural hub for receiving piped-in crude from more distant sources and distributing it further to refineries being developed across the Midwest. First it was crude from Texas and Wyoming, then from the offshore Gulf of Mexico and overseas producers delivered via the Capline pipeline from St. James, LA, to Patoka. In the early and mid-2010s, rising Western Canadian production spurred the development of Keystone and other new pipelines to move that crude — and diluted bitumen, or “dilbit” — to U.S. markets. Then, in 2017, came the start-up of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which runs from the Bakken production area in western North Dakota to Patoka, followed by expansions of the Ozark and Wood River-to-Patoka (Woodpat) pipelines that help bring in WTI and other light, sweet domestic crude from a long list of basins, including Powder River, Denver-Julesburg (DJ), SCOOP/STACK, and Permian.n Part 2, we discussed the five pipelines that flow directly into the Patoka hub as well as the many upstream systems that feed into these lines. As a group, Patoka’s five inbound pipelines have a combined capacity of just over 2 MMb/d: 454 Mb/d from Woodpat, 590 Mb/d from Keystone, 570 Mb/d from DAPL, 300 Mb/d from Southern Access Extension, and 100 Mb/d from Mustang. And, with plans already in place to expand three of these pipelines (Keystone by 50 Mb/d, DAPL by 180 Mb/d, and Southern Access Extension by 100 Mb/d), that 2 MMb/d inbound capacity will soon increase to more than 2.3 MMb/d.

Today, we turn our attention first to the hub itself, which includes a mix of large, medium, and small terminals, and to its main operational function — namely, as a well-connected grouping of tankage that enables refiners and others to store, blend, and stage crude oil with the aim of maintaining desired flows of specific types of crude oil to an array of refineries in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Kentucky. Patoka’s tanks and intra-hub pipelines provide another operational function too: helping to manage southbound flows on the Bakken Pipeline System via the DAPL conduit to Patoka and the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP) from the Illinois hub to the Gulf Coast. Like Cushing (though to a much lesser degree), Patoka is often used as a place to sock away crude oil for commercial purposes — that is, to take advantage of contango markets, when the price of oil a few weeks or months from now is higher than the price today.