Thursday, April 8, 2021

Last Post For The Night -- Most Important Story Of The Year? April 8, 2021

Signs that Costco thinks the pandemic is over. And if Costco thinks the pandemic is over, the pandemic is over. 

Link here to  CNN:

Costco diehards, don't fret: The beloved food court, known for its $1.50 hot dog and soda combo and giant menu boards, is coming back to life, albeit slowly.

Costco shut down seating areas in food courts when the pandemic spread through the United States last March. It pared back the menu to hot dogs and pizza for takeout only. 
Signs of life started to emerge in the summer when the chicken bake returned. Now, the return to normal is gaining steam. Costco recently began adding back ice cream and smoothies to the menu and is bringing back tables and chairs in stores that have outdoor seating areas. The company also is bringing back churros to the menu and plans to resume indoor seating as more states loosen Covid-19 safety restrictions.

This story caught my eye. I was in our local Costco on Saturday, the day before Easter Sunday. I've never seen it so busy. Masks were still required, but that was about the only pandemic-related precaution. Folks were streaming in. Check-out lines stretched to the back of the store. As I walked out, I noted that the indoor food court was not back to normal, but folks were standing in long lines to order their drinks, hot dogs, and pizza. I thought it would be just a matter of time before the food court was re-opened at pre-pandemic standards. 

Liberty Pipeline Project Killed; Follows The Cancellation Of The Red Oak Pipeline -- Implications For The Bakken? -- April 8, 2021

Wow, this story has so many story lines. I'm too exhausted to to through them tonight but I will link / post the story and see what comes of it over the next few days. 

The story: another pipeline is dead. Philliops 66 pulls out of deferred Liberty Pipeline project. This is NOT good news -- if the DAPL is shutdown .....

From the linked S&P Global Platts article: 

Phillips 66 Partners is officially pulling out of the long-deferred Liberty Pipeline project that was designed to move 350,000 b/d of crude oil from the Rockies and Bakken Shale to the benchmark Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the company said.

The Phillips 66 Partners-led pipeline project was put on indefinite hold more than a year ago when the pandemic crushed global crude oil demand and, since then, the US energy sector has kept tight reins on capital spending.

Phillips 66 Partners will record an estimated impairment of between $180 million and $210 million in the first quarter for pulling the plug on the long-dormant project, it said in a statement April 5. The pipeline would have stretched 700 miles from Guernsey, Wyoming, to Cushing, including a connection to a previously proposed Platteville, Colorado, terminal.

Phillips 66 Partners' joint-venture partner Bridger Pipeline and its parent, True Companies, did not respond to requests for comment, but Bridger already is exploring pipeline alternatives with new partner Tallgrass Energy through recently launched open seasons.

The decision on the Liberty Pipeline is not surprising considering that Phillips 66 in October canceled the planned Red Oak Pipeline from Cushing to the Texas Gulf Coast. Red Oak and Liberty were both proposed and, subsequently, deferred at the same times. So, when Red Oak was killed, it seemed like a similar result for Liberty could follow.

Both the Red Oak and Liberty pipelines were originally scheduled to be in service in the first quarter of 2021.

From a June 11, 2019, post: 

A new Bakken pipeline. Details:

  • Liberty Pipeline, a joint venture between two companies:
    • Phillips 66
    • Bridger Pipeline
  • The project:
    • origin: the Bakken; southwest corner of North Dakota
    • via: Guernsey, WY
    • terminal: Cushing, Oklahoma
    • route not yet clear
    • proposed capacity: 200,000 bbls
    • cost: $1.6 billion
  • in-service date: as early as 1Q21 (hope springs eternal)

700-mile pipeline project; at $1.6 billion, that works out to $2.3 million / mile. I've been using a back-of-the-envelope figure of one million dollars / mile pipeline all these years -- it looks like that figure is obsolete, at least for longer pipelines which would also need pumping stations, other infrastructure support much shorter pipelines might not require. I don't know. But $2.3 million / mile is eye-catching. 

Maybe I'm missing something but killing a pipeline that would serve both the Powder River Basin and the Bakken is very, very interesting. Others have the same thought.



T-Mobile Vs Cable? For The Archives -- April 8, 2021

For the archives. I saw this story over at MacRumors the other day but I didn't understand how the technology worked and decided not to post the story/the link until more information came out.  

Yahoo!Finance dumbed it down for folks like me to understand. It looks like T-Mobile has come up with a way for homeowners to cut the cable (think Spectrum) and / or dish the Dish, bringing 5G internet directly to one's home through a router placed against an outside window, with speeds up to 100 megabits per second with unlimited data and no caps.

The important note about this story: technology is finally arriving that may force cable companies like Spectrum to actually get more competitive. And more customer-friendly.

What Happened To XTO In The Bakken? April 8, 2021

A reader asked: your post on drilling rigs today made we wonder, what happened to XTO?

My reply, not-ready-for-prime-time, right, wrong, or indifferent:

Great question.

1. If you can't get past the paywall on this article let me know, and I will send you the key points of the article some other way:


I think that article explains everything if one reads between the lines. Bottom line: Lynn Helms is working with XTO to get them to bring in two rigs.

2.  The good news: as recently as yesterday, XTO renewed four permits which tells me XTO is NOT leaving the Bakken:

  • XTO (4): four Don permits all in McKenzie County
  • Rimrock (2): a Bloodaxe permit and an Ironsdie permit, both in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester Operating Co: an LIG2 permit in Burke County;

No New Permits; Active Rigs At Sixteen -- April 8, 2021

Jobless claims: change week over week, original data, raw data, not corrected for population nor for season. Update, in red, corrected for population: looking only at California (sort of closed); New York (closed); and, Texas (open for business). Note, like Texas, Florida is open for business, and also saw jobless claims drop week-over-week like Texas. FWIW. This data makes no difference to the average investor; if anything, it's nothing more than "political" fodder, Original chart from ZeroHedge, link here:

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Back to the Bakken


Active rigs
:

$59.60
4/8/202104/08/202004/08/201904/08/201804/08/2017
Active Rigs1636645849


No new permits
. 

Six permits renewed:

  • Rimrock Oil & Gas: two Charging Eagle permits; two Skunk Creek permits; one Narwhal permit; and, one Westin TTT permit, all in Dunn County.