Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Road To Mexico -- Pemex' Debt -- Update -- April 6, 2021

Pemex: is this one of those stories that we'll come back to in six months?

  • telegraphing a "restructuring"?
  • the state-owned vertically integrated oil company is apparently "woke"
    • "it is clear that high indebtedness represents a structural problem, attention to which should not be delayed ... we do not rule out restructuring...."
  • having said that, Pemex expects to maintain financial debt of $105 billion through 2025
    • pays lip service to paying down debt (won't happen)
  • will raise crude refining capacity from 1.1 million bpd (2021) to 1.6 million bpd by 2025;
    • says it won't incur more debt by adding more obligations
  • we'll see
  • last year lost its "coveted" investment grade rating due to high debt and other concerns

Pemex debt is actually worse than being stated above. See this link.  


Williston Herald With Photo-Journalism: Seventy Years Of Oil In North Dakota -- April 6, 2021

Link here.

Also here.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- April 6, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

MNRL: don't remember if I posted this before -- Brigham Minerals, 1Q21 and full year 2020 operating and financial results. Interesting data points. Link here. 

UNP: a dividend stock to buy? Motley Fool here.

BRK-A/BRK-B: is another Warren Buffett ship about to come in? From The WSJ, ketchup and Heinz Kraft. It's not a ketchup shortage, it's a plastic package shortage. Meanwhile, from last September, over at Market Realist, is Kraft Heinz an albatross for Warren Buffett?

Tesla: stuns with record 1Q21 deliveries.

LNG imports: from Rigzone, LNG imports up nearly 6%. What's this all about? Liquefied natural gas deliveries expanded the most in a year as Asia and Europe refilled inventories drained over the winter, and as pandemic-ravaged economies slowly begin to reopen.

Imports jumped 5.8% in March from a year earlier, the biggest increase since March 2020, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Demand for the fuel used in heating and power generation had been steadily growing before Covid-19, as nations shift away from coal-fired power over climate concerns.

While European imports rebounded as dwindling stockpiles and strong spot prices attracted cargoes from U.S. export projects, Asian importers anchored the growth. Chinese shipments surged more than 30% in March amid an effort by the nation’s new pipeline operator to open terminals to gas distributors. Supplies to Bangladesh and Pakistan also rose on the back of spot buying.

LNG imports into western Europe in March reached the highest levels since record volumes delivered in December 2019. Supplies from the U.S. made up nearly 30% of shipments. Global exports of the fuel in March rose 4.2% from year-ago levels.

Output from the U.S. surged to a record high as projects ramped up production, while exports from Algeria, Oman and Egypt also expanded.

Soaring methane emissions: US shale oil is coming back. 

Does Trevor Milton know something we don't: sells $50 million of his own company's stock. File under Nikola. Behind a paywall at that link, but story can easily be found elsewhere, e.g., here at FreightWaves. 

North Dakota / Covid-19: no new coronavirus-related deaths for ten straight days, a stretch not seen since the onset of the pandemic. And North Dakota has no "mask mandate" and is open for business. Also, here, though this may be the same link.

Gasoline demand: if gasoline demand hits 9 million bbls/day, the US will have to refine nearly 16.5 million bopd to keep America running, especially starting April 15, 2021, when US has imported 800 - 900kd (sic). Not likely when EU runs low + EU has already exported their stocks. Gasoline is in the driver's seat (sic). Link here.

Neanderthal table talk: "Fewest Neanderthals have Covid Case since 10 full moon ago. Only 2,248 Neanderthals per day in past quarter moon. 26 days since Tribe chief say take paper off face. Scared caveman say wait 2 quarter moons, more Neanderthals going to get sick. But no happen. Scared caveman wrong again (sic).” Link here.

WTI Clawing Its Way Back To $60; IBD With Shale Investing Overview; One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- April 6, 2021

Timing is everything: yesterday a reader (or readers) asked my thoughts on investing in various shale operators. I felt badly because I really cannot comment. Not only is this not an investment site, I have no "street cred" when it comes to investing. None. Nada. Zilch. So, I felt badly I couldn't help the reader(s) out. 

But here it is. Timing is everything. Investor's Business Daily provides an excellent overview which is at least a place to start for reader(s) asking these questions. Link here. I'll come back to this, maybe re-post as a stand-alone, and will archive it.

Timing is everthing, part 2: along the same line, Bloomberg has an article on how to invest in US shale, sort of. The Bloomberg article is behind a paywall over at Bloomber.com but it's posted in it entirety at Financial Post. Link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$59.44
4/6/202104/06/202004/06/201904/06/201804/06/2017
Active Rigs1240625749

One well coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, April 6, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 84 for the year:

  • 37818, drl/NC, CLR, Dallas 4-30H, Truax, first production, t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: TC Energy refocusing growth plans after Keystone XL setback.

U.S. presidential transitions often bring policy changes, but few have been as dramatic and swift as the shift in energy policy that came with President Biden’s inauguration in January. Among his first acts after being sworn in was the signing of an executive order that revoked the Presidential Permit for TC Energy’s long-planned Keystone XL crude oil pipeline. Among other impacts, the move put on ice more than one-third of the Canadian midstream giant’s C$37 billion capital spending program for the 2021-24 period and unraveled TC Energy’s plan to balance its natural-gas-weighted pipeline portfolio with more crude oil pipes. So, what’s next for the midstreamer now that KXL is a no-go? In today’s blog, we’ll discuss highlights from our new Spotlight report on TC Energy which lays out how the company arrived at this juncture and where it goes from here.

Monday, April 5, 2021

Connecting Some Compelling Dots -- April 5, 2021

Awesome national championship game tonight -- listened to it on the radio, old school.

But there was a much bigger story here. 

Baylor was only the second Texas team in men's college basketball history to win the national championship.

Pop quiz: what Texas team was the first to win a men's national basketball championship? Hint: the 1965 - 1966 season. The losing opponent, the Kentucky Wildcats, ranked #1 in the nation.

Read this incredible story here. 

After you read that story, then read this story, happened during the same 12-month period

All of this sort of puts Covid-19 into perspective.  

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A Year Earlier

This is so good on so many levels. Link here.

Cilla Black