Friday, February 26, 2021

Ammonia As The Fuel Of The Future -- February 26, 2021

RBN Energy has talked about hydrogen and ammonia as energy/fuel options, and recently a reader has been sending me items regarding ammonia.

Interestingly enough, there's a fairly recent article on ammonia asking whether ammonia is the fuel of the future.

Link here, from the American Chemical Society, February 19, 2021. Hard to get much more current than that.

Archived. 

From the linked article:

Chemical companies smell an opportunity. Several firms are developing green ammonia, a route to ammonia in which hydrogen derived from water electrolysis powered by alternative energy replaces hydrocarbon-based hydrogen, making ammonia production virtually carbon dioxide–free. They are also investing in carbon capture and storage to minimize the carbon impact of making conventional ammonia, creating what the industry refers to as blue ammonia.

Tony Will, CEO of the world’s largest ammonia producer, CF Industries, sees a fundamental shift in the industry’s prospects. “Up to this point, we have made a business by selling the nitrogen value of the molecule,” he says. “What’s really exciting about this is now there is an opportunity and a market that values the hydrogen portion of the molecule.”

But establishing an ammonia fuel industry won’t be easy. By most estimates, green ammonia will cost two to four times as much to make as conventional ammonia. And some of the technologies needed to harness the molecule, such as ammonia-burning engines, are still experimental. Governments and the marketplace will have to decide if green ammonia is worth the effort.

Nature has given ammonia attributes that seem to make it a perfect commodity for a future hydrogen economy.

The bottom line for me: we will never run out of energy. Period. Dot.

It's just a matter of how much we want to spend on it.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Drops Back A Bit -- February 26, 2021

Enviable position: are there only two western countries that have both vast crude oil reserves as well as a robust domestic refining sector capable of satisfying national needs for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products? See below.

WTI
: all that talk about $100 oil? Not so fast.

China: crude oil reserves in storage near limit; reserves have reached a level equal to 100 days of imports. That number includes both SPR and commercial inventories.. To compare, US data (numbers rounded):

  • the US produces around 10 million bopd
  • in non-SPR  storage: around 600 million bbls
  • in SPR storage: around 600 million bbls; capacity -- 800 million bbls
    • maximum total withdrawal capacity: 4 million bopd

XOM: writes off one-third of its reserves. .

Dividends: E&Ps may have found a new way to keep investors happy. Link:

  • maintain quarterly / annual dividends at just the minimum that keeps long-term investors from selling; then,
  • pay generous special dividends when free cash flow surges

Apple: iPhone 12 series still strong despite weaker demand.

  • 2021 iPhone shipment estimates dropped from 236 million to 230 million
  • 230 million: a 13% increase, y/y (2021/2020)
  • Apple likely to discontinue iPhone 12 mini production 2Q21
  • makes up just 6% of iPhone 12 sales in the US in October/November, 2020
  • maybe only 5% of all iPhone 12 sales in January, 2021

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.75
2/26/202102/26/202002/26/201902/26/201802/26/2017
Active Rigs1551665740

No wells coming off the confidential list today. 

RBN Energy: eastern Canadian refineries shift to more domestic slates, part 3. 

Canada, like the U.S., is in the enviable position of having vast crude oil reserves as well as a robust domestic refining sector capable of satisfying national needs for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. Refiners in both countries have also benefited in recent years from increasing oil production within their borders. Growth in the Alberta oil sands in particular has given refineries in both Western and Eastern Canada increased access to domestically sourced bitumen and upgraded synthetic crude oil. Today, we continue our series on Canada’s refining sector with a look at the refineries in the eastern half of the nation, and their increasing use of Canadian oil.

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Cleaning Out The In-Box --February 25, 2021

ATT -- Pay-TV: private-equity giant, TPG, to pay $1.8 billion for one-third interest in new DirecTV unit. Link to The WSJ.  A stand-alone company. Data points:
  • ATT has been trying to sell this white elephant for years;
  • ATT paid $66 billion for this albatross in 2015
  • apparently six years later it's being valued at less than $6 billion
  • shares of T pretty much unchanged

Minimum wage: $15 / hour apparently not in the Covid-19 stimulus bill.

Mr Potato Head neutered: now, simply, Potato Head. So, what’s Mrs Potato Head? Later: I'm wrong: the franchise / the box is now called "Potato Head." But the family will still include Mr Potato Head and Mrs Potato Head, Spud, and Yam. Link here.

The Meme For US Oil Companies For 2021: Free Cash Flow (FCF) -- February 25, 2021

FCF is the meme for US oil companies in 2021. 

Another example; note the sources:

The EIA Dashboards, February, 2021

Mano a mano: Bakken wells still exceed the Eagle Ford and Permian for crude oil. The Bakken exceeds the Permian, mana a mano, more than two to one.

EIA dashboards: