Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Rigs, DUCs, And Managing Assets -- The Bakken -- January 20, 2021

An earlier post has been updated to include a link to an EIA pdf that was inadvertently omitted. The link to a pdf: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/January_2021_Supplement.pdf.

Screenshot of the title page (archived): 


 From the report:

After June 2020, crude oil production in North Dakota has been recovering, but it is still about 20% lower than the historical high in October 2019. 
Although the base production (production from wells more than one year old) has fully recovered, the swing production (production from wells less than a year old) has not because a lower rate of new well completions has resulted in fewer new wells.

Say What? -- January 20, 2021

Japan has secured enough vaccines to inoculate all of its population, though none has yet received local regulatory approval and the country hasn’t started vaccinations.  Say what?

Previously posted. 

Slow Covid vaccine distribution adds to Tokyo Olympics woes, The WSJ. 

Organizers of the Tokyo Olympics face a long list of obstacles as they attempt to carry off the postponed Games in six months—and the alarming rise in Covid cases around the world recently is only one of them. 

Potentially bigger hurdles include the need to speed up Covid-19 vaccinations globally and in the U.S. and convincing a skeptical Japanese public to accept vaccines and welcome thousands of visitors from around the globe. 

The International Olympic Committee and organizers in Japan last March delayed the Games from 2020 to 2021, a move that came about four months before the event was set to begin. They are now closing in on the same decision-making window for 2021, with last year’s problems still in play and a few new ones that have surfaced as the pandemic has continued.

Vaccinations—for the hosts, athletes and spectators—are a big topic.

Although Olympic organizers have said they won’t require vaccines for fans and athletes coming to the Games, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has said he wants almost everyone in Japan vaccinated by the Olympics’ July 23 start. Japan has secured enough vaccines to inoculate all of its population, though none has yet received local regulatory approval and the country hasn’t started vaccinations.

Apple Shifting From Lower Margin iPhone 12 Mini To Higher Margin iPhone 12 Pro To Make More Money -- January 20, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Earnings announcements tomorrow:

  • Intel Corp
  • Costco
  • UNP
  • IBM
  • Intuit
  • CSX
  • BHI

Parting gift: Apple CEO Tim Cook gifted former US president Trump with the first 2019 Mac Pro that came off the assembly line in Austin, Texas. "‌Mac Pro‌ Computer, the first created at the Flex Factory in Austin, Texas," reads the entry, which values the machine at $5,999, the base price for a ‌Mac Pro‌.

Apple
: Apple is shifting some production from iPhone 12 mini to iPhone 12 Pro to meet demand. Think about that. Data points:

  • apparently cutting production of the iPhone 12 mini by two million units;
  • made the switch in 1Q20 in an effort to combat continuing lead times for the more popular iPhone 12 Pro
  • iPhone 12 Pro lead times remain extended far beyond any model launched in the past four years at ten days
  • lead times decreased from 22 days to 24 days with recent switch in production
  • the non-Pro ‌iPhone 12‌ models are believed to be performing better in China than in the United States. In China, the ‌iPhone 12‌ is believed to have gained a 20.3 percent market share, which is a new 18 month high. The device is also said to have achieved the largest install base of any ‌iPhone‌ launched in China over the past four years through the first full month after being launched.
  • as for me: it's difficult to wait until January 27, one week from today, for Apple's earnings report.

Apple: wow! LG considering to exit from smartphone business.

Notes From All Over -- The Proud Grandfather Edition -- January 20, 2021

Pipeline permits: I obviously don't know the particulars but the headlines say that the new CEO/CIC has revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US/Canadian border (as expected). Wouldn't this be a hoot: continue with the Keystone XL south of the border and fill it with Montana and North Dakota oil and ship it south to US refineries and terminals. LOL. If the DAPL is shutdown, which is likely to be the next shoe to drop, then the Bakken can go to Plan B: Keystone XL south. LOL. 

Earnings reported today:

  • Bank of New York Mellon: plunged after missing expectations.
  • KMI: beats 4Q20 earnings and revenue estimates; 27 cents vs 24 cents; and $3.12 billion; beats estimates by almost 2%. Only once in the last four quarters has KMI beat estimates.
  • UAL: shares drop about 3% after reporting record loss; CNBC tried to put a good face on this, but did not convince me; bullish analysts are counting on a Biden miracle;
  • AA: shares drop a bit despite beating estimates; guidance not not assuring;
  • PG: slips slightly after earnings; same ol' same ol';

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Hope Springs Eternal

Not gonna happen ... but if it happens ... wow ... think of the carbon footprint ... LOL .. and, of course ... the market ... I'm lovin' it.

Slow Covid vaccine distribution adds to Tokyo Olympics woes, The WSJ. 

Organizers of the Tokyo Olympics face a long list of obstacles as they attempt to carry off the postponed Games in six months—and the alarming rise in Covid cases around the world recently is only one of them. 

Potentially bigger hurdles include the need to speed up Covid-19 vaccinations globally and in the U.S. and convincing a skeptical Japanese public to accept vaccines and welcome thousands of visitors from around the globe. 

The International Olympic Committee and organizers in Japan last March delayed the Games from 2020 to 2021, a move that came about four months before the event was set to begin. They are now closing in on the same decision-making window for 2021, with last year’s problems still in play and a few new ones that have surfaced as the pandemic has continued.

Vaccinations—for the hosts, athletes and spectators—are a big topic.

Although Olympic organizers have said they won’t require vaccines for fans and athletes coming to the Games, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has said he wants almost everyone in Japan vaccinated by the Olympics’ July 23 start. Japan has secured enough vaccines to inoculate all of its population, though none has yet received local regulatory approval and the country hasn’t started vaccinations.

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Contests

The grandchildren never cease to amaze me.

Tonight in passing, our middle granddaughter, a freshman in high school, who is best known in the family for her scholastic achievements, artistic ability, and especially for her soccer playing, mentioned that she had just been notified by e-mail that she was a finalist in The New York Times photography contest. 

The link is to the "A Special Multimedia Contest for Teenagers in the US." 

So, we'll see.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Edition -- January 20, 2021

Tesla: wow! 4Q20 California registrations jumped 63%, compared to same quarter last year, largely due to Model Y. Tesla, California, recovered from 16,200 deliveries in 3Q20 to 22,117 vehicles in 4Q20.

At about 11,417, registrations in the state for Tesla's Model Y compact crossover utility vehicle surpassed those for the Model 3. California registrations for Tesla's Model 3 mass-market sedan fell 34% on a yearly basis to 7,044.

Total fourth-quarter vehicle registrations in the 23 states, where data was collected, stood at 44,749, with Model Y accounting for nearly half the registrations.

Tesla is expected to report earnings on January 27.

Jim Cramer's financial haiku today:

  • defying the Wall Street critics;
  • Netflix, Tesla, Amazon, Apple;
  • the customer is always right. 

Wow, it's great to be home again, but I do miss the twins. LOL.

But it's great to be back to TCM. 

Futures: right after the close, the futures were slightly negative. I assumed it was a bit of profit-taking. But here we are, 6:03 p.m. CT and futures for all three major indices have turned positive. Wow. KMI up 3% and F up 2.5%.

Equinor: raised its dividend today.  11 cents, record date, 2/12/21. Previous two quarters, 9 cents.

BK: shares plunge in price after profit miss. Dropped 75, enough to pace the S&P 500's decliners.

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Metrics

This is what I will be tracking at one year, two years, three years, and four years:

Easy metrics to follow:

  • China flu:
    • cases / million / trend
    • vaccinations given
    • in round numbers, on day of inauguration:
    • total doses distributed: 40 million
    • total number of doses given: 17 million
  • three major indices; all three set all-time records on day he was inaugurated; closing:
    • Dow:
    • S&P 500:
    • NASDAQ:
  • atmospheric CO2:
    • December, 2020: 413.95
  • price of gasoline, using EIA data at this link:
    • 1/18/21: $2.464 / gallon
  • MacDonald's, as tracked at this link:
    • Big Mac: $3.99
  • Misc (suggestions?)
    • the average rent for an apartment in Albany, NY, at this link; $1,299 (last updated Jan 2021)