"Focus On Fracking" Has Been Posted -- December 13, 2020

"Focus on Fracking" has been posted. 

The lede:

• record drop in oil exports;
• largest crude build in almost three years;
• gasoline output at 2-year low;
• gasoline demand at 2-year low;
• gasoline supplies jump most in almost three years;
• distillate build -- already at record levels -- most in six months;

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Story Will Disappear By Noon, Tomorrow

Hillary's advice:

The WPX Topaz And Rubia Wells In Mandaree Oil Field

Updates

December 12, 2021: production data for these fracked wells now posted. 

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The Wells

The wells:

• 37322, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 14 days; cum 108K 1/21; cum 188K 10/21; fracked 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and record low frack with 2.4 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	23472	10337

• 37321, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24HA, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 12 days; cum 112K 1/21; cum 176K 10/21; fracked, really, really, fast,9/26/20 - 9/29/20;  and record low frack with 2.5 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020; 23,821 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 60,000 bbls over 30 days;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	23584	6253

• 37320, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree, wow, fast frack, 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and, a small frack, 5.1million gallons of water, 83% water by mass; t--; cum 28K over 12 days; cum 145K 1/20; cum 314K 10/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	28182	8573

• 37319, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB, Mandaree, fast frack; 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; another small frack, 5.2 million gallons of water, 83% of water by mass; t--: cum 24K over 8 days; cum 202K 1/21; cum 380K 10/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	23614	11372

• 37318, loc/A-->F/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT, Mandaree, t--; cum 25K over ten days; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; a small frack at 5.2 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; 25,102 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 75,306 bbls over 30 days; cum 144K 1/21; cum 313K 10/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	24937	6838

• 37317, loc/A-->GL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HF, Mandaree, t--; cum 26K in 13 days extrapolates to 60,000 bbls over 30 days; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; only 5 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; cum 184K 1/21; cum 367K 10/21;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2020	25546	6441

There are four producing wells sited in that same section, in the SESE quadrant, and running north:

• 36264, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 204K 1/20;  remains off line 10/20; a 30K month; back on line 6/20; cum 303K 10/21;
  
• 36263, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HD, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 313K 1/21; remains off line 10/20; a 60K month; back on line 6/20; cum 369K 10/21;
  
• 36262, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HZ, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 316K 1/21; a 56K month; cum 355K 10/21;
  
• 20033, IA/144, WPX, Rubia 16-24H, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, one section spacing, t11/11; cum 264K 5/19; remains off line 1/21; best month, 16K; was taken off line 5/19; has just returned to production, 10/20; cum 266K 10/21;
  

The graphics:

The following are also Topaz wells but they are Equinor wells in Banks oil field.

• 31466, Equinor, Banks,
• 31465, Equinor, Banks,
• 31365, Equinor, Banks,
• 31363, Equinor, Banks,
• 31361, Equinor, Banks,
• 23983, Equinor, Banks,
• 22902, Equinor, Banks,
• 22900, Equinor, Banks,
• 20712, Equinor, Banks,

Monthly Oil Production Statistics -- September, 2020

This following link is at the NDIC's statistics website:

• Historical monthly oil production statistics

North Dakota oil production on a daily oil per well basis during the Bakken boom, PEAKED at 105 bbls of crude oil per day per well in December, 2014. 

Production dropped as low as 72 bbls per day per per well during the "Saudi surge," December, 2016.

Daily production gradually climbed back to 97 bbls per day per well by November, 2019, about a year ago.

Then Covid-19 / Chinese flu / the pandemic hit.

By June, 2020, North Dakota oil production dropped to 70 bbls per day per well in June, 2020.

Since then, production has increased:

• July, 2020: 75 bbls / well / day
• August, 2020: 79 bbls / well / day
• September, 2020: 82 bbls /well / day

The screenshot of the spreadsheet for the past few months:

Futures Looking Good -- Sunday Evening -- December 13, 2020

I saw a report overnight / early this morning suggesting the market would have a great Monday. I did not post that report for various reasons.

Futures don't mean a thing, of course, and this could change in a heartbeat overnight.

But the report suggested the mutual funds, all things being equal, would drive the market higher for the remainder of the year. It was a wrinkle regarding mutual funds I had not heard before. I forget the "wrinkle." 

Be that as it may, this is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Banks Next?

Re-locations are tracked here.

Deutsche Bank talks about possibility of huge moves from Manhattan to Jacksonville, FL, and possibly, Cary, North Carolina. 

Link here.

Restaurants In Trouble -- December 13, 2020

Updates

January 26, 2021; Cici's files for bankruptcy.

December 18, 2020: Exception:

Darden Restaurants: indicated annual yield of 1.03% paying 30 cents/share per quarter, today announced a dividend increase to 39 cents/share.

7 / 30 = 23% increase in its dividend. Link here. Record date, 1/8/21; payable date, 2/1/21.

Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; The Capital Grille; Seasons 52; Bahama Breeze; Yard House; Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen; Eddie V's. 

Trading near it's 52-week high.

Original Post

There are approximately 70 restaurants on this list (I counted 67 but did not double-check, so somewhere between 65 and 75). Look at the list. 

Name the one prominent national restaurant that is not on this list. There are several well-known, prominent, nationwide restaurants not on that list but not many.

One restaurant chain that is not on the list surprises me: Cracker Barrel.

Going through this list, observations and the tea leaves suggest:

• many of these chains were doomed even before Covid-19 (Hooter's, e.g);
• many of these chains were dying before Covid-19 but might have survived with a "white knight" savior, but Covid-19 will be the final nail in their coffins;
• many of the "national" chains that survive will become regional brands; some already are, always have been, but more will join the list (Sonic, Cracker Barrel, e.g.);
• the national restaurants that survive will take a bigger share of the overall market simply because there will be less competition.
  

For investors: this has huge implications for "sandwich delivery companies," (as one reader calls them), namely DoorDash. 

DoorDash will not save even one of those restaurants on that list. If the restaurants survive, they will survive through a number of innovations including delivery, but delivery won't, by itself save restaurants.

The big reason that DoorDash won't save these restaurants: simply not enough time. These restaurants have been decimated since March, 2020, and it looks like another three months in states like California and New York. 

And if these restaurants don't survive, it's hard to make a case for DoorDash as an investment. Where can DoorDash grow? Perhaps by becoming the delivery choice for existing patchwork of pizza delivery chains. 

Amazon started out as a bookseller. Now Amazon sells "everything."

DoorDash will need to become the Amazon of local delivery: delivering for Walmart, Target, local grocery stores, and all the other local brick-and-mortar stores. 

But wow, that list of 67 restaurants.

For investors: a focus on those restaurants that will survive. Think McDonald's. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.