Sunday, October 25, 2020

Off The Net -- Good Luck To All -- See You In The A.M. -- October 25, 2020

ICYMI: wells coming off the confidential list this next week, posted earlier

Focus on Fracking: posted.  

Off the net. Good luck to all. See you in the a.m.

I have to do some testing.


It should be noted that because it may give false positives, one should not use vodka for these self-administered tests.

Notes From All Over -- Including A Random Note On J.D. Salinger -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 25, 2020

Al-qaeda's second-in-command: taken out. As in "killed."

Bookstores:

  • NYC's iconic Strand bookstore warns it may close; link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/famed-strand-bookstore-warns-it-may-close-due-to-covid-19.
  • Powell's Books in Portland hanging on by a thread; link here; I've visited both Powell's and Amazon on-line looking for books. Powell's has a much, much better selection for true bibliophiles, but for the masses, Amazon's site is much easier to navigate;

ACB: vote tomorrow evening, 7:00 p.m. ET; Monday, October 26, 2020. 

Biden to form committee to study benefits / risks of "packing the court." He would need to appoint an even number of justices, two or four. Thirteen justices seems a bridge too far, but eleven justices seems about right; in line with the more common 12-member courts around the world.

Focus on Fracking should be posted later this evening. Link here.

Victor Davis Hanson on the last debate. No question Victor Davis Hanson is correct, but will it matter? Some may be asking: could Joe Biden literally implode in the last two weeks?

***************************************
The Literature Note

I've read this elsewhere from another source, but it's interesting to read it again, as told by an individual who probably knows as much about The New Yorker as anyone. 

Ben Yagoda: the author of About Town: The New Yorker and the World It Made, is/was the director of the University of Delaware's journalism department.

William Shawn: editor of the New Yorker, and J. D. Salinger's editor, loyal defender, and close friend. 

Roger Angell: a longtime New Yorker staff writer and editor.

Roger Angell: When he first came to the [New Yorker], Salinger worked with Gus Lobrano [and William Maxwell], but William Shawn took over [after Lobrano's death] ... When I came to the fiction department, none of the editors in the department dealt with Salinger -- only Shawn. 

Ben Yagoda: What elevated Shawn professionally was World War II. Shawn used the war to transform the magazine from a sophisticated humor magazine into a magazine that published serious journalism, culminating in the publication of John Hershey's "Hiroshima," which occupied one entire issue. It was shepherded by Shawn. He was the one who germinated the idea with Hershey, argued it should take up the entire issue, edited it, and brought it into print. That elevated Shawn in the halls of the New Yorker and in the literary world.

-- Salinger, David Shields and Shane Salerno, c. 2013, p. 338.

Comparing "Midtier" Smartphones -- October 25, 2020

Readers may recall this article from The WSJ regarding the new iPhones

Now, from The WSJ, but this time by Nicole Nguyen: the case for a $700 smartphone. The sub-head:
Four-figure phones have become standard, but the best value can be found in less-expensive models that still deliver great cameras, long-lasting batteries and future-proof 5G connectivity.

So, let's see what she has to say.

Maybe you need the best of the best, or maybe even $700 is too high. The analytics firm IDC forecasts that due to pandemic-related belt tightening, smartphone spending will be reduced, with the $400 to $600 range as this year’s fastest-growing category. Apple’s iPhone SE, Samsung’s Galaxy A51 and Google’s Pixel 4a are all $400 or less.

Ms Nguyen then goes through the new models, providing thoughts on what you gain, and what you give up if  you settle for the "midtier" phones.

The midtier phones she reviews: the Apple iPhone 12 Mini; the Google Pixel 5; and, the Samsung Galaxy S20 FE. 

To her credit, Nguyen doesn't dwell on comparing apples and oranges. For the most part, she doesn't compare the Apple product with the Androids. She compares midtier phones within their own families. This is incredibly important. Good for her.

Things that caught my eye:

This is an exception to the "comparing Apples and oranges comment above: Apple’s official policy supports repair service and software updates for five years from the device’s release date. Samsung and Google guarantee just three years of updates. That's huge. 

Ms Nguyen does not show any preference. The article ends with the upgrades and downgrades for each of the three phones but does not make a recommendation.

I think she realizes that folks, by now, have decided to which family they belong: the Apple family or the Android family. She is simply letting the buyer know how the midtier phone in each respective family compares with the least expensive model and with the most expensive model.  

For Apple:

  • it appears a whopping 21 models of Apple smartphones are supported by Apple (link here)
  • the two I would consider for myself, I currently have the iPhone SE, first generation:
    • the iPhone 12 mini (5.4 inch Super Retina XDR display); starts at $699
    • the iPhone SE, second generation (4.7-inch Retina HD display); starts at $399

The Big Story Tomorrow -- Until A Bigger Story Comes Along -- October 25, 2020

Wisconsin out of control.

Covid-19: weekly new cases per 100,000 people, as reported by Johns Hopkins University, last updated at 10:50 a.m. today, October 25, 2020. North Dakota is #1 in the nation for new cases per 100,000 followed a bit further back by South Dakota and even further back, #3, Wisconsin:

  • The leaders:
    • #1: North Dakota; 643 new cases per 100,000
    • #2: South Dakota: 551 new cases per 100,000
    • #3: Wisconsin: 487 new cases per 100,000
    • #4: Montana: 404 new cases per 100,000 (which raises the question -- just how good is social distancing?)
  • What about the big states?
    • New York: 298
    • New Jersey: 234
    • Florida: 316
    • Louisiana: 259

The big story tomorrow -- until something bigger comes along -- will be the Chinese flu pandemic, surging yet again, and the White House throwing in the towel on attempts to control it.

I track the pandemic here

My primary source of numerical data is this site. At that site, you can click on "USA" and get data for individual states. 

The US population: 330 million.

Number of Covid-19 cases to date, in the US: approaching 9 million.

9 / 330 = 3%.

Herd immunity: 65% to 70%, with or without a vaccine. 

Spanish flu: the meme -- one-third of the world's population became infected with the virus, back in 1918 - 1920. One-third is 33.3%. That's a long way from 3%. 

At a million new cases in the US each month, the current rate:

  • 0.7*330 million = 230 million
  • 230 / 1 = 230 months = about 20 years
  • the vaccine would speed things up .... assuming ... a lot of assumptions
    • note: we have not eradicated seasonal flu despite...
      • vaccination against influenza began in the 1930s with large-scale availability in the United States beginning in 1945
      • note: only one human viral pathogen had been eliminated: smallpox
      • despite widespread vaccination several pathogens have not been eliminated: chickenpox; measles, mumps, rubella, dipththeria, H. flu, meningococcus, etc.;

Notes From All Over -- Literature -- October 25, 2020

I'm back in my Clarissa stage. Clarissa: A History of a Young Woman, Samuel Richardson, 1748.  My notes on Clarissa at this post.

The 100 best novels written in English. Link to The Guardian, August 17, 2015. #4, Clarissa by Richard Samuelson.

After two years of careful consideration, Robert McCrum has reached a verdict on his selection of the 100 greatest novels written in English. 

The 100 greatest novels of all time. Link to The Guardian, October 12, 2003.  #1, Don Quixote by Miguel De Cervantes.