Top Story Of The Week -- Tell Me Again How Solar Energy Will Save The Planet? -- August 14, 2020

Updates

August 15, 2020: The WSJ noted the power outages.  

On Friday, the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, called for rotating outages throughout the state for the first time since 2001.

The system operator lifted the Stage 3 electrical emergency a few hours later, but only after PG&E Corp, one of the state’s largest utilities, had begun to cut power to about 220,000 customers. Service had been restored by late Friday night.

Original Post

If you put this in context of California wanting to put a gazillion EVs on the road, all requiring a gazillion gigawatts of electricity, this is truly the biggest story of the week.

From a reader:

Rotating power outages in southern California today.  Notice how close we came to maxing out today.  Also NO WIND to speak of and SOLAR disappears as sunset arrives.  Look at the curves at the bottom of this Supply page.

The screenshot was taken from ISO California at the time the state was going through rotating power outages in southern California.  

Wind is practically non--existent, and solar -- remember all those roof-top solar panels at great expense -- and this is in the sunniest state in the union.

To the degree that Californians have been sold a scam, this is almost criminal. On so many levels. And there is no indication things will improve. Again, imagine this same scenario with "all" EVs on the road. This is crazy.

Notes From All Over -- The Late Friday Night Edition -- August 14, 2020

Update on the DAPL: see this link at Schwa Nation.

 

Moving quickly:

• Covid-19: I'm getting the feeling that things are moving a bit quickly and some folks are trying to slow things down. It behooves the Biden/Harris team to make sure this "pandemic" lasts well past January 20, 2021. A lot of government money is going to be distributed for diagnostic tests, therapeutics, and vaccines over the next twenty-four months.
• McKesson: tapped to distribute corona virus vaccine in the US. Shares rose 3% after announcement made, Friday. By Monday shares should be a lot more expensive. 
• Novavax: an American company to deliver 60 million vaccine doses to the UK.  I do believe the Federal government has final say, yes or no, but I could be wrong.
  
• San Francisco: remote work is reshaping the city as tech workers flee and rents fall.
  
• NYC: ditto.
  
• Retail spending: in July, retail spending topped pre-pandemic levels. 

Color me impressed, link here:

Warren Buffett is more surprising than some of us thought. It is being reported that Berkshire Hathaway:

• "slashed" positions in Wells Fargo and JPMorgan; dumps Goldman stake;
• buys gold (gold miner Barrick).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Farming
If this is accurate .....see item in bold red, link here:

...fresh off its June initial public offering, Albertsons Companies Inc announced an agreement to offer fresh produce made by Plenty Unlimited, a vertical farming company. Plenty operates a sustainable indoor vertical farm that can grow produce all year long. The company heavily relies on technology to grow produce, including data analytics, machine learning and customized lighting. 

In its present form, the Plenty farm can grow 1 million plants at a time and process 200 plants per minute. The farm is also designed to use less than 1% of land and 5% of water versus traditional farming. I will be watching for independent verification on this one. Link here.

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Fool Me Once, Shame On You; Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me
Trump Administration Didn't Get Fooled The Second Time

From Reuters:

Venezuela had few options for obtaining gasoline on Friday after the United States seized four Iranian fuel shipments en route to the fuel-starved South American country, where protests intensified over widespread gasoline shortages. 

The U.S. Department of Justice said it had confiscated approximately 1.1 million barrels of fuel aboard four vessels, which were destined for Iran's ally, Venezuela. 

Tehran had successfully sent five fuel tankers to Venezuela earlier this year. 

The U.S. maintains sanctions on the oil industries of both countries. Oil refineries in once-prosperous OPEC member Venezuela have capacity to process some 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, but they are producing little fuel due to years of under-investment and mismanagement at state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela.

Equinor Update -- Seeking Alpha --August 14, 2020

 From Michael Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha:

Summary

• Norway's Equinor (previously known as Statoil) was one of the first O&G companies to embrace renewables.
• while BP recently grabbed headlines for its high-profile strategy shift toward renewables, Equinor has a head start.
• with its expertise in off-shore drilling, combined with a very long coastline, Equinor is primed to profit from wind energy.
• the newly announced CEO is a long-time company engineer who has a favorable view of renewables - and that bodes well for the future.
• meantime, the company's world-class and massive Johan Sverdrup field will be the main contributor to upstream profits.

The reason I include the quotations is that it is clear: Equinor's Board of Directors and new CEO Opedal are putting a priority on transitioning the company to a low-carbon future. While the announcement may seem to come on the heels of BP's recent strategy shift, the fact is that Equinor has been quietly building up a renewables business for quite some time and has a head-start over all other international integrated O&G companies.

Going forward, for energy investors, one might want to archive this article.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$42.01	8/14/2020	08/14/2019	08/14/2018	08/14/2017	08/14/2016
Active Rigs	12	62	58	57	33

No new oil and gas permits:

Nine permits renewed:

• BR (4): four Lincoln Hill permits in Dunn County
• Slawson (4): four Mole permits in Mountrail County
• Bruin: one Christine Joe permit in Williams County

Bakken Oil Prices -- August 14, 2020

For mineral owners wondering why their recent royalty checks were so low, this was the note I sent to some interested readers:

If you want to see why our recent checks were so low, here are the oil prices for Bakken oil as reported by the State of North Dakota -- these numbers came out today:

Posted here: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2020/08/directors-cut-posted.html.

• today: $33
• July: $31.75
• June: $32.35
• May: $7.92 -- no typographical error.

Director's Cut Posted -- North Dakota -- June, 2020, Data

The Director's Cut
Data For June, 2020
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Link here to past reports.

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons are tracked here. 

Selected data points:

• crude oil production: 890,109 bopd
• price, crude oil:
• today: $33
• July: $31.75
• June: $32.35
• May: $7.92
• natural gas production: 1,973,289 MCF/day
• wells, permitted --
• May: 59
• June: 72
• July: 92
• wells, completed --
• April: 58 (final)
• May: 12 (revised)
• June: (37 (preliminary)
• wells, inactive --
• May: 6,109
• June, 4,214
  
• wells, waiting on completion (DUCs) --
• May: 952
• June, 899 
• wells, total off line for operational reasons: 5,113 (see this  link)
  
• narrative, drilling and completions activity:
• The drilling rig count was stable in the mid 50’s second half of 2019 through March 2020. trilling rig count is down 82% January to June of 2020.
• the number of well completions has been very volatile since March as the number of active completion crews decreased from 25 to 1-3.
• drilling permit activity is slower, but has held up through the oil price collapse. Operators are still attempting to maintain a permit inventory of approximately 12 months and some experienced drilling rig and completion crews.
• Gas capture:
• statewide: 89%
• statewide, Bakken: 90%
• FBIR Bakken: 85%
• Comments:
• if there were comments on DAPL and the MPC pipeline supplying the Mandan refinery, I missed them