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Clearing Out The In-Box
From Twitter
Friday, July 31, 2020
From The State That Knows What's Best -- July 31, 2020
From the other day, July 30, 2020, while I was traveling. Link here.
BR With Plans For 15 Wells On A 1120-Acre Unit, Blue Buttes --July 31, 2020
From the NDIC August, 2020, hearing dockets (link here):
Active wells in the 1120-acre unit:
- 28545, BR, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fifteen wells, on a 1120-acre unit; sections 2 and N/2 and N/2 S/2 of section 11-151-95; McKenzie County;
Active wells in the 1120-acre unit:
- 28709, 2,485, BR, Harley 11-2TFH-R, Blue Buttes, t7/215; cum 328K 5/20; jump in production, 10/17;
- 28710, 2,886, BR, Harley 11-2MBH-R, Blue Buttes, t7/215; cum 342K 5/20; small jump in production, 12/18;
- 28711, 2,124, BR, Harley 21-2TFH-R, Blue Buttes, t7/215; cum 319K 5/20; small jump in production, 8/17;
- 18942, 2,291, BR, Harley 31-2H, Blue Buttes, t10/10; cum 412K 5/20; small jump in production, 9/17;
- 26222, 1,964, BR, Harley 31-2TFH, Blue Buttes, t6/215; cum 260K 5/20;
- 26221, 2,446, BR, Harley 41-2MBH, Blue Buttes, t6/215; cum 364K 5/20; small jump in production, 7/19;
- 26220, 2,806, BR, Harley 41-2TFH, Blue Buttes, t7/215; cum 343K 5/20; big jump in production, 3/18;
NDIC Hearing Dockets For August, 2020, Have Been Posted
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
Link here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
Highlights in bold.
The cases (these are not permits):
Five Pages
Link here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
Highlights in bold.
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Four Pages
Four Pages
The cases (these are not permits):
- 28532, Hess, AN-Lone Tree well; confirm spacing; discuss the matter of drilling reduced-length laterals in a fashion that wells drilled on an east/west orientation do not penetrate the E/2 W/2 E/2 of section 7, section 7-152-94; McKenzie County
- 28533, BR, Dimmick Lake-Bakken; State Dodge 1B MBH, #36313; bottom hole / 500 feet from western boundary; McKenzie County
- 28534, NDIC, confiscation order; #19783, Schlak 2 wells, Norma Field, Renville County;
- 28535, NDIC, confiscation order, #21729, Laura Funke, Renville County;
- 28536, NDIC, confiscation, #25472, Schlak 3 well, Norma Field, Renville County
- 28537, NDIC, confiscation, #10439, Lassey 1 well; Glasss-Bluff-Madison unit, McKenzie County;
- 28538, NDIC, confiscation, Lassey-Erickson A 1, #11144, Glass Bluff-Madison, McKenzie;
- 28539, NDIC, confiscaton, Lindsley-Dobias State 1 well, #11157, Glass Bluff-Madison, McKenzie;
- 28540, NDIC, confiscation, Lassey-Myers A 1, #11177, Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKenzie
- 28541, NDIC, confiscation, Dobias State A 1 well, #11340, Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKenzie;
- 28542, NDIC, confiscation, Dobias Monson Well 1 well, #11355, Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKenzie;
- 28543, NDIC, confiscation, A. M. Lassey A 1 well; #11499, Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, McKensive;
- 28544, BR, Union Center-Bakken, fifteen wells, on a 1280-acre unit; sections 2/11-152-96; McKenzie County; see this note;
- 28545, BR, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fifteen wells, on a 1120-acre unit; sections 2 and N/2 and N/2 S/2 of section 11-151-95; McKenzie County; see this note;
- 28546, Hess, commingling; Tioga oil field;
- 28547, SWD, EN-Debing 55-93 SWD 1; Robinson Lake Field, Mountrail County
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Five Pages
The cases:
- 28548, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1600-acre unit; one well; establish two overlapping 1600-acre units; seven wells on each 1600-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3200-acre units; one well; Dunn County;
- 28549, SWD, CLR, Kelly Draw SWD; Cedar Coulee Field, Dunn County;
- all the rest were continued cases
#DividendsMatter -- July 31, 2020
Why some of the CNBC crowd looked so dour yesterday, market cap:
Before we get started: the big question no one is asking: when will AAPL increase its dividend? Answer: not before May, 2021.
Now, back to rambling.
After yesterday's explosive surge in Big Tech (AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOG) and the run-up that TSLA has had this year, and the remarkable jump (and crash) of KODK in the last 48 hours or so, tells me one thing: not only does no one know what's going on in this market (even more than usual), but there is actually little connection between "valuation" and share prices. Apparently even Nokia is making a comeback.
It's hard to buy into the "efficient market hypothesis":
One: all available information.
So, what other strategies are there? With commission-free trades and the ability to buy shares by the fraction and the requirement that brokers keep track of gains and losses for the IRS and most importantly, because of sites like nasdaq.com one can make trades based on dividend "information."
This information has always been available, but wow, what a pain to find it, in the past. Not any more.
Remember how some folks "ladder" their CDs? One can do something similar with blue chip stocks that pay dividends. But one can do it much more frequently than one can do it with laddering CDs.
On a weekly basis, one can buy a chunk of publicly traded shares that pay a high dividend, buying the shares in time for the "record date" and then selling those share some time later to buy the next publicly traded company that pays a nice dividend. Yes, I know all the caveats -- all things being equal, the share price will drop by the same amount as the dividend on the ex-div date, but it certainly seems to me that within a day or two, the share price (up or down) will not reflect the ex-div price. Things are simply moving too quickly in the market these days.
If I'm doing it, I can only imagine a lot of folks who now work at home are also doing it. In the pre-Covid days folks could not "trade" at work for the most part. But now, with so many folks working at home -- like everyone in New York City, my hunch is a lot of folks are dabbling in the market on a daily basis much more than they used to.
Just rambling.
I got to thinking about dividends the other day when a reader mentioned that OKE is unlikely to be able to keep paying its dividend currently at $3.74 with an APR of almost 13%. I agree completely. The payout ratio is almost 250%.
This is where OKE stands:
What I think is most interesting: common sense suggests OKE has got to cut their dividend but their history of dividend increases certainly suggests they are studying this long and hard.
Anyway, idle rambling.
Oh, I forgot. Simply Wall St talked OKE yesterday. Interestingly enough, not one word about dividends.
- AAPL: $1.775 trillion;
- AMZN: $1.584 trillion; trading up 4.1% today; up $125 dollars with "all" analysts guiding much higher; some guiding $4,000
- MSFT: $1.525 trillion; and trading down 1.22% today;
- GE: $53.488 billion; down 2.3% today; down 15 cents trading at $6.11
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#DividendsMatter
Before we get started: the big question no one is asking: when will AAPL increase its dividend? Answer: not before May, 2021.
Now, back to rambling.
After yesterday's explosive surge in Big Tech (AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOG) and the run-up that TSLA has had this year, and the remarkable jump (and crash) of KODK in the last 48 hours or so, tells me one thing: not only does no one know what's going on in this market (even more than usual), but there is actually little connection between "valuation" and share prices. Apparently even Nokia is making a comeback.
It's hard to buy into the "efficient market hypothesis":
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.I see two things glaringly wrong in that hypothesis.
One: all available information.
All available information for whom? Insiders? CNBC analysts? And what is "information"? Doesn't "information" require some amount of analysis. And we could go on and on.Second: market prices should react only to new information. What is the definition of "new"? And how fast does "new" information become "old"?
So, what other strategies are there? With commission-free trades and the ability to buy shares by the fraction and the requirement that brokers keep track of gains and losses for the IRS and most importantly, because of sites like nasdaq.com one can make trades based on dividend "information."
This information has always been available, but wow, what a pain to find it, in the past. Not any more.
Remember how some folks "ladder" their CDs? One can do something similar with blue chip stocks that pay dividends. But one can do it much more frequently than one can do it with laddering CDs.
On a weekly basis, one can buy a chunk of publicly traded shares that pay a high dividend, buying the shares in time for the "record date" and then selling those share some time later to buy the next publicly traded company that pays a nice dividend. Yes, I know all the caveats -- all things being equal, the share price will drop by the same amount as the dividend on the ex-div date, but it certainly seems to me that within a day or two, the share price (up or down) will not reflect the ex-div price. Things are simply moving too quickly in the market these days.
If I'm doing it, I can only imagine a lot of folks who now work at home are also doing it. In the pre-Covid days folks could not "trade" at work for the most part. But now, with so many folks working at home -- like everyone in New York City, my hunch is a lot of folks are dabbling in the market on a daily basis much more than they used to.
Just rambling.
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OKE
I got to thinking about dividends the other day when a reader mentioned that OKE is unlikely to be able to keep paying its dividend currently at $3.74 with an APR of almost 13%. I agree completely. The payout ratio is almost 250%.
This is where OKE stands:
- today OKE is down almost 3%; like much of the rest of the market, down today
- OKE has consistently raised its dividend for a number of years
- OKE goes ex-div today which accounts for some of the drop in price today, all things being equal;
- "record date" is August 3, 2020, so one can still buy it today but you have to be fast (by the end of the day, assuming that your broker gets the trade made and the shares show up in your account Monday)
- payment date is August 14, 2020
- the only question is if/when OKE will announce a cut in its dividend -- OXY slashed their dividend; everyone could see it was going to happen, and it did, no surprise
What I think is most interesting: common sense suggests OKE has got to cut their dividend but their history of dividend increases certainly suggests they are studying this long and hard.
Anyway, idle rambling.
Oh, I forgot. Simply Wall St talked OKE yesterday. Interestingly enough, not one word about dividends.
No New Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- July 31, 2020
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Just before the market opens:
ICYMI: Trump allows existing Keystone oil pipeline to boost capacity.
Active rigs:
No wells coming off the confidential list today.
RBN Energy: Gulf Coast crude export terminals have capacity to spare.
Just before the market opens:
- DOW: up 70 points
- NASDAQ: up 113 points
- S&P 500: up 10 points
- stock futures rise after Big Tech's blowout quarterly results
- consumer spending rises for second straight month
- gold is going higher; sliver prices are soaring; why the metal is still undervalued;
- gold sets fresh record heading for best month in eight years
- Amazon's stock gets 27 price target increases from analysts, with six targets of least $4,000
- in the news: Kodak, Nokia, Abbvie
- Kodak short sellers are getting obliterated; by the way, was KODK a classic short squeeze; it's down 25% today;
- Pinterest stock surgest 25% after upbeat forecast, huge beat on user growth;
- XOM: for the wrong reasons
- Fisker SUV, link here;
- AAPL: up 5.73%; up $22.48; trading at $407.
- TSLA: up 1.1%; up $16; trading at $1,504;
- AMZN: up 5.7%; $174; trading at $3,226;
- IMUX: down 0.17%; down 3 cents; trading at $17.45;
- QCOM: up 0.3%; up 33 cents; trading at $107.53;
- XLNX: down 4.1%; down $4.59; trading at $107.44
- PFE: down 0.11%; down 4 cents; trading at $38.70; I believe today is "day of record" for dividend; went ex-div yesterday; full history here; next distribution September 1, 2020; APR: about 4%;
ICYMI: Trump allows existing Keystone oil pipeline to boost capacity.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $40.45 | 7/31/2020 | 07/31/2019 | 07/31/2018 | 07/31/2017 | 07/31/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 12 | 58 | 63 | 61 | 35 |
No wells coming off the confidential list today.
RBN Energy: Gulf Coast crude export terminals have capacity to spare.
The COVID-19 pandemic has undone a number of long-standing energy-market expectations. Just a few months ago, U.S. crude oil production was hitting new heights, export volumes were rising fast, and producers, shippers, and others were worried whether there would be sufficient marine-terminal capacity in place. Now, crude production is down sharply, and while crude exports have held up during this year’s market turmoil, the old belief that exports would keep rising through the early 2020s is out the window. Where does that change in expectations leave all those crude export terminals along the Gulf Coast, many of which were recently built or expanded to help handle the flood of crude that was supposed to be heading their way? Today, we discuss highlights from RBN’s new Drill Down Report on crude-handling marine facilities along the Texas and Louisiana coast.
Since the ban on most exports of U.S. crude oil was lifted in late 2015, the volumes of mostly light, sweet crude being exported from Gulf Coast terminals has taken off: from about 600 Mb/d in 2016 to 1.1 MMb/d in 2017, 2 MMb/d in 2018 and nearly 3 MMb/d in 2019. Anticipating that exports would as much as double by mid-decade, a number of midstream companies implemented expansions at existing terminals, built entirely new terminals, and/or explored the possibility of developing offshore export terminals in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico where they could fully load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs).
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