Thursday, July 23, 2020

Notes From All Over, Late Night Edition, Part 2 -- July 23, 2020

Trump cancels GOP convention. Will Dems do the same?

On another note, a sports writer questions whether there will even be an NFL season this year. Having said that, the tea leaves continue to swirl and things could change quickly.

Too much money involved. There will be an NFL season this year, come hell or high water. NFL owners are like oil wildcatters. Both are going to do what they do: play football, drill for oil, regardless of the odds.

Even if it means playing games with second- and third-string quarterbacks, the games will be played. In fact, they might even be more interesting.

All the owners want to do is get sixteen games played, and into the real season, the playoffs. It's very possible, the virus will finally burn itself out (or we will have a vaccine) by the time of the playoffs.

The link takes you to a CBS story with 32 vignettes: the one game for all 32 teams that could make or break their seasons.

It's worth reading.

The lede:
With less than eight weeks to go until the start of the NFL season, there's still no guarantee that we're even going to have an NFL season, and if we do, there's no guarantee that every game is going to get played.
Due to the coronavirus, there's always a chance that the NFL could be forced to cancel a week or two this year, which would definitely make things interesting, because it's the one league where every game really counts.

The thing about the NFL is that teams only get 16 games to prove how good they are, which means every time they lose, they're basically flushing 6.25 percent of their season down the toilet. Although every regular season game is important, some of them are more important than others, and those are the games we're going to take a look at right now.
Three examples:

One. Kansas City Chiefs: week 4 vs. Patriots.
It's tough to find a game on the Chiefs schedule that could "make or break" their season, but there is definitely a short stretch where things could get interesting. After traveling to Baltimore for a game in Week 3, the Chiefs have to turn around and play the Patriots at home in Week 4. A loss to the Patriots would potentially be devastating and that's because it could kill Kansas City's chances of earning a first-round bye in the playoffs (only one team in the AFC will be getting a first-round bye).
Two. The Cowboys figure in two games. First, against the Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas:
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 at Cowboys. Over the past three years, the NFC East has basically been a two-team race as the Cowboys and Eagles are the only two that have won a division title in that period, and it's starting to feel like this season is going to be more of the same.
Although the Eagles have some huge games on their schedule (San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans), it feels like this game in Dallas will be their biggest, and that's because there's a good chance the winner will end up winning the division.
Three. Finally, and this is a no-brainer. The most important game for the Cowboys this year will be their opening game, week 1 at Rams.
There aren't many teams in the NFL that are going to be under more pressure in Week 1 than the Dallas Cowboys, and Dak Prescott is likely going to be feeling a lot of that, especially since he'll be playing out the season on his one-year franchise tag deal.
Another person who will be feeling the pressure is Coach Mike McCarthy.
In his first game as Cowboys coach, he gets to face a team that Dallas throttled 44-21 last year. That's notable because if McCarthy starts off his Cowboys tenure by losing to a team that Jason Garrett beat by 23 points, then McCarthy's popularity will quickly take a nosedive in Dallas. Basically, if the Cowboys lose this game, everyone in Dallas is going to be feeling some serious pressure after just one week of the season, and most of that pressure will be felt by Prescott and McCarthy.
Does anyone even remember Jason Garrett? 

NASCAR Tonight At Kansas -- July 23, 2020

Holy mackerel -- tonight's NASCAR race is incredible. Long track, 1.5-mile-tri-oval.

Another caution with 26 laps to go. I've lost track of the number of cautions, number of major wrecks.

#24 (Byron) was in great position to win, but then fell back in restart with 29 laps to go. Now with 24 to go, still in caution. #88 (Bowman) takes lead. It looks like at the re-start, with about 20 laps to go, it will be #24 and #88 in the front row.

Bowman chooses the inside lane, front row.

Re-start with 22 to go.

Harvick (4) and Hamlin (11) move to first/second.

Keselowski (2) in third.

It looks like the race is between 2nd and 3rd.

Hamlin in first with ten to go.

Harvick about a second behind. But with nine to go, Keselowski moves to 2nd.

Wow, amazing how fast things change.

With a long track, 1.5 miles -- a bit more time ...

Wow, still 5 to go and Keselowski is making this interesting ....

Under normal conditions, it would be Hamlin's race, but one gets the feeling, something could change...

Nope, unless there's a caution, it's going to be Hamlin.

White flag.

Kansas winner: Denny Hamlin. 

Notes From All Over -- Late Night Edition -- July 23, 2020

Home prices surge in the Hamptons. Link here.


M2 money supply has ballooned to $88 trillion. Link here. M2 is basically cash.

M2 is a calculation of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money."
M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds, and other time deposits. These assets are less liquid than M1 and not as suitable as exchange mediums, but they can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.

Re-posting: earlier today I posted --
Investing: I've been actively investing since 1984 and consider myself an extremely conservative investor, and not particularly knowledgeable. But there are two tectonic changes:
  • huge, huge shift from "legacy" holdings to "millennial" holdings;
  • the sky is the limit; huge amounts of money out there; maybe more on this later; record $15.6 trillion in US savings accounts:

Aluminum can shortage. Google hard seltzer, hard cider, Truly, White Claw. The drink of choice in our apartment complex pool is ... Truly. I've not seen White Claw. When I was in England for many months on end between 2002 and 2004, hard cider was a "thing."

Trump cancels GOP convention. Will Dems do the same? On another note, a sports writer questions whether there will even be an NFL season this year. Having said that, the tea leaves continue to swirl and things could change quickly. Will re-post as a stand-alone post.

Masks and social distancing: there was none yesterday at the PGA Nationwide Challenge charity tournament. I watched for a short time but I saw lots of golfs standing in groups, no masks, no social distancing.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- July 23, 2020

Link here.


Eight New Permits -- July 23, 2020

Active rigs:


$41.057/23/202007/23/201907/23/201807/23/201707/23/2016
Active Rigs1257665832

Eight new permits, #37731 - #37738:
  • Operators: MRO (7); SHD 
  • Fields: Antelope (McKenzie); Deep Water Creek Bay (McLean)
  • Comments:
    • SHD has a permit for a single Moose well in McLean County, Deep Water Creek Bay, SENW 6-150-90;
    • MRO has permits for a 7-well Antelope/Monson pad in NWSW/SWNW 26-152-94, 237' FWL and about 2500' FNL, Antelope oil field;
      • the six Antelope wells will be sited in SWNW 26-152-94, while the one Monson USA well will be sited on the same pad, but in NWSW 26-152-94; see graphic below;
One permit renewed:
  • Petroshale: a Jorgenson Federal permit in McKenzie County;
The MRO Antelope/Monson USA pad:


Producing wells in the diagram above:
  • 19838, 1,069, MRO, Debbie Baklenko USA 12-26H, Antelope-Sanish, t6/11; cum 298K 5/20; huge jump in production 12/18; see this note; see production profile for #33636 below;
  • 33636, 4,405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 268K 5/20; a 66K month; see below;
  • 33637, 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 225K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 5/20;
  • 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 266K 5/20;
33636, first months of production:
SANISH7-20192184228579647027122907117485
SANISH6-20193012768127939324432671549126938
SANISH5-201931209362082414724648121573747728
SANISH4-201930245372459016276746301804455056
SANISH3-201924248062489415485778431816558169
SANISH2-201925392253924019818770631373961032
SANISH1-2019306590865508349241008211044586539
SANISH12-2018004130000
SANISH11-2018341305698350812