Why Saudi Arabia Will Lose The Next Price War; MRO Reports A Monster Well - 170K In Less Than 3 Months -- June 8, 2020 -- NRFPT

NRFPT: not ready for prime time.

Link here.

I'll archive this article. Archived here.

The writer provides a great argument why Saudi Arabia will lose the next price war (I would argue, it already lost the first two price wars).

But this one well is another reason why Saudi Arabia will lose the next price war.

The well:

• 36660, drl/drl, MRO, Shortall USA 14-9H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 170K in 2.5 months: fracked 1/21/2020 - 1/31/2020; 7.062 million gallons of water (a moderate-size frack); 88.63% water by mass; friction reducer broken out by mass % but I don't understand the breakout; 2560-acre spacing; middle Bakken;

Production (45K bbls in 14 days extrapolates to 96K bbls in 30 days):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	63143	63436	28331	79258	17534	58061
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	61507	61382	41139	76504	13366	59572
BAKKEN	2-2020	14	44942	44330	27594	52692	3211	46936

MRO Reports Four Incredible DUCs That Remain On "DRL" Status -- June 8, 2020

Active rigs:

$38.69	6/8/2020	06/08/2019	06/08/2018	06/08/2017	06/08/2016
Active Rigs	12	64	61	52	26

Two new permits, #37623 - #37624, inclusive --

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for two Nikolai Federal wells in lot 4 section 6-152-97; Banks oil field; both are 339' FNL and about are about 1120' FWL spacing unit 28/33-153-97; see graphic below;
• again, there is a huge error on the daily activity report: the daily activity report says these wells will be sited 339' FSL, in fact, they are sited 339' FNL; the number of errors on the daily activity reports have become quite significant and relatively frequent since earlier this year; 
• the scout ticket appears correct for this well with regard to siting;

No permits renewed or canceled.

Four producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

• 36430, drl/A, MRO, Bintz USA 21-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 106K 4/20; a 39K month;
• 36431, drl/A, MRO, Erickson 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 132K 4/20; a 50K month;
• 36804, drl/A, MRO, Floyd USA 21-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 140K 4/20;  55K month;
• 36844, drl/A, MRO, Akko USA 44-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 188K 4/20; a 60K month;
• see also:
• 36660, see below;
• 20495, 1,413, MRO, Pennington USA 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t12/11; cum 512K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
• 21436, AB/1,353, MRO, Pennington 31-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/12; cum 429K 11/18; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20; nothing in well file to explain why; the well was still producing about 2,000 bbls/ month when it last produced;
• 167725, 400, MRO, Pennington USA 41-4H, Reunion Bay, t6/09; cum 325K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
• 26805, 2,056, MRO, Renn 41-$TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 249K 4/20;
• 26807, 2,704, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 475K 4/20; modest jump in production, 9/18;
  

• 36660: fracked 1/21/2020 - 1/31/2020; 7.062 million gallons of water (a moderate-size frack); 88.63% water by mass; friction reducer broken out by mass % but I don't understand the breakout; 2560-acre spacing; middle Bakken;

NDIC File No: 36660     API No: 33-061-04519-00-00     CTB No: 136660 Well Type: OG     Well Status: DRL     Status Date: 11/20/2019     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SESE 8-151-93     Footages: 325 FSL 290 FEL     Latitude: 47.906275     Longitude: -102.601364 Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY Current Well Name: SHORTALL USA 14-9H Elevation(s): 1982 GL     Total Depth:       Field: REUNION BAY Spud Date(s):  11/20/2019 Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Status: DRL     Date: 11/20/2019 Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 169592     Cum MCF Gas: 208454     Cum Water: 97064

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 4-2020 30 63143 63436 28331 79258 17534 58061 BAKKEN 3-2020 30 61507 61382 41139 76504 13366 59572 BAKKEN 2-2020 14 44942 44330 27594 52692 3211 46936

Another 500-Point Surge On The Dow -- June 8, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: wow, wow, wow, what a surge at the end of the day! All three major indices finished quite a bit higher:

• Dow 30: up almost 500 points, after a 1000-point rally last Friday
• NASDAQ: up 110 points
• S&P: up almost 40 points

Oil:

• OPEC basket: $36.83
• Brent: $40.72
• WTI: $38.11

Stocks of interest:

• AAPL: managed to squeak out a gain -- up almost $2.00
• AMZN: up 1.65%; up $41
• NTFX: finished about $420, flat for the day
• GOOG: up half a percent; up $8 to $1,447
• IMUX: up almost 6%; up 75 cents to $13.77
• airlines:
• DAL: up 8%; up $2.81 to $37;
• UAL: up 15%; up $6.28 to $49;
• LUV: uo 6%; up $2.41 to $41
• AAL: up 9%; up $1.72 to $20
• BA: up 12%; up $25 to $230

Traders are loving this. I guess I can start looking at my investment statements again. LOL.

TCM, this month on TCM -- June, 2020:

Little Movies, Aaron Lee Tasjan

A Closer Look At A WPX Blue Racer -- June 8, 2020

The WPX Blue Racer wells have been updated. They are tracked here.

These are incredible wells. One example:

• 36505, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Mandaree (Squaw Creek?), t--; cum 91K over 59 days; Three Forks B1; FracFocus: fracked 2/20/2020 - 3/3/2020; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.0247;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	44558	44624	24442	54272	32471	16876
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	45011	44783	34565	54823	20697	29158

Some things to note:

• friction reducer by mass: 0.0247
• this was a very, very small frack: only 5.2 million gallons of water
• target: Three Forks first bench

Form the well file:

• permit said field was Squaw Creek; scout ticket, says Mandaree oil field; NDIC map clearly shows horizontal in the Squaw Creek oil field;
• target: Facies Y of Unit 6 of the Three Forks formation;
• target was 21' below the top of the Three Forks
• the curve begun on December 22, 2019, and completed the same day;
• landing achieved at a TVDof 11,052'; approx 27' below the top of the Three Forks;
• lateral began on January 4, 2020 (typo in the well file); ended on January 7, 2002

The Zavanna Stranger And Usher Wells Sited In Section 28-151-100

Sited in section 28-151-100, and running north:

The Usher wells:

• 35879, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Usher 28-20 5HXW, Patent Gate, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 78K in less than four months; a 40K month; cum 235K 9/21;
  
• 35749, PNC, Zavanna Usher 28-21 PA, Poe,
• 35748, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 78K in less than five months; cum 172K 9/21;
  
• 35747, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 3H, Poe, first production, 1/20, t--; cum 123K in less than four months; a 45K month; cum 225K 9/21;
  
• 35746, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 4TFH XW, Patent Gate, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 84K in five months; off line 1/21; cum 126K 9/21;
  
• 24696, 1,502, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 1H, Poe, t1/18; cum 302K 1/21; off line from 4/19 to 1/20; I assume this was the well holding the lease by production; see this post; cum 338K 9/21;
  

The Stranger wells:

• 35665, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 1TFH, Poe, first production 12/19, t--; cum 81K in less than five months; cum 158K 9/21;
  
• 35666, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe, first production, 1/20;, t--; cum 154K 7/20; a 49K month; cum 220K 9/21;
  
• 35667, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 3TFH, Poe, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 157K 9/21; 81K in five months;
  
• 35668, SI/NC-->SI/A, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 130K in less than five months; a 35K month; cum 262K 9/21;
• 35669, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 5TFH, Poe, first production, 11/19, t--; cum 112K in five months; cum 192K 9/21;
  
• 35670, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 6H, Poe, first production, 11/19, t--; cum 164K in five months; a 45K month; according to FracFocus, fracked 10/10/2019 - 10/21/2019; 7.7 million gallons of water; 91.3% water by mass; friction reduction: petroleum distillates, hydroteated light; poly (oxy-1,2-ethanediyl), a-tridecyl-w-hydroxy-, brancher; 0. 05958, 0.00397; total: 0.06355; cum 262K 9/21;
  
• 35671, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 7TFHXE, Poe, first production, 11/19, t--; cum 83K in five months; cum 262K 9/21;
  

Neighboring well sited to the north:

• 23116, A/IA/2,176, Equinor, Cora 20-17 6TFH, Poe, t5/13; cum 174K 3/20; was off line while the Usher wells were being fracked; no halo effect; remains off line 1/21; back on line 5/21; cum 178K 9/21;