School Break, Skiing, Leonard Cohen, Anthem, And Nothing About The Bakken -- March 8, 2020

A reader -- actually three readers -- just sent me short notes about the price of oil. I replied very tersely, saying almost nothing, but much was on my mind. I finally wrote a long note to one of the readers to explain the state of mind I'm in and why my original note was so short.

While writing that note, I realized that maybe readers in general, coming to the blog this week, might find it useful to know what I'm thinking this week.

To wit.*

I am really conflicted how to handle current events (politics, price of oil, coronavirus) on the blog this week.  I am in a good place practically and emotionally, but I know this is going to be difficult for a lot of folks (the politics, price of oil, coronavirus). But this is what makes it even more difficult for me.

I am home alone -- for four days, I am almost completely free --- on Saturday, yesterday, our son-in-law drove -- I kid you not -- to the DFW airport -- ten minutes away -- bought a ticket for himself and Sophia. And left. Simply flew away.

Earlier in the day I was trying to reach Sophia. She was with her dad but I wasn't getting any reply. Finally, a text message, "We're [Sophia and I] out and about."

They left last night. I did not know they had left until they were on the plane. I don't know when he told his wife (our older daughter) or the two older granddaughters, Sophia's older sisters. He may have waited until after he and Sophia had crossed the Rubicon (gone through TSA security in this case). Kiri, Arianna, and Olivia (mom and the two older daughters) were at a soccer tournament.

He simply got on the plane with Sophia, flew to Denver, rented an SUV, to go skiing this week. Sophia starts ski school tomorrow, Monday. They rented her stuff today. This will be Sophia's third year of skiing.

No one else in the family wanted to go skiing this year (long story). But he really, really wanted to go skiing, and Sophia, five years old, going on sixteen, is game for anything.

Sophia and I sent texts back and forth last night on the phone when she was either airborne or taxiing.

Today, she was on face-time twice with me. She is so excited. And I am so excited for her. What a great father-daughter trip.

So, I am free, free, free. The other two granddaughters need minimal Uber-support. The older one wants me to take her to the grocer to get meat tomorrow -- yes -- the vegan wants meat to make stew.

So, now I can stay up all night, listen to music, read the books I want to read, blog, but with the market in flux and people panicked about coronavirus I'm not sure how to approach the blog. But the blog, music, and reading all keep me going. If I quit one, I will get depressed. They say sharks need to keep moving to survive, for the water to rush over their gills; for me, it's blogging. I need to blog to survive. And the Bakken right now is a bit tedious -- same ol' same ol' -- and I want to write about other stuff but readers come to the site to read about the Bakken, not to read about stuff that interests me, other than just the Bakken.

So, I'm conflicted. All the time to blog to my heart's content but I don't want to offend anyone.

I guess we will all just have to wait to see what shows up on the blog.

Another sidebar: this technology is amazing and how Google tracks us is amazing.

I spent the last half hour trying to find images of the Glacier Express and the Rhaetian Railway and other trains we took while touring Switzerland back in 1986, or thereabouts. I went back to YouTube, and the first ad that popped up was some rail ad about touring the Grand Canyon by train, the Grand Canyon Railroad & Hotel, I believe. I kid you not.

That's why I'm posting Leonard Cohen's Anthem. It seems to fit all the emotions running through my head right now. Wow, Cohen was a great poet. I was given his autobiography as a Christmas present some years ago. I never read it. I had a world myth of Leonard Cohen and did not want to know anything other than the myth I had of him.

I think if Graham Greene had been a singer-poet he would have been Leonard Cohen's doppelgänger. I think they would have had a lot about which to talk.

Wow, speaking of doppelgängers, Debbie Harry/aka Blondie just walked in (I'm at a wi-fi coffee house). I think I will stay a bit longer than planned. LOL. 

*To wit is now just a fixed expression. It's a shortened form of that is to wit meaning “that is to know; that is to say; namely”, from the English verb wit “to know”. This was a strong verb with past tense wot, as in “A garden is a lovesome thing, God wot”.]

Anthem, Leonard Cohen
The book I'm reading (actually re-reading): The Hare with Amber Eyes: A Hidden Inheritance, by Edmund de Waal, c. 2010. It's one of my top shelf books. I've given much of my library away. This is one book I will never give away. I've blogged about it before.

Boogie Street, Leonard Cohen

WTI Drops Below $40 -- March 8, 2020

A reader, bless his heart, just sent me a screen shot of WTI: fell almost $10/bbl, now trading below $40?

Some agile traders are going to be making a lot of money over the next month or so.

*******************************

Clearing Off The Desktop

Salad Hair -- Signing Off For Awhile -- I Have To Re-Set A Dozen Clocks Or So -- March 8, 2020

Okay, okay, okay -- I've now spent the last hour exploring this. If you haven't looked at the two videos linked below, you are missing an evening of great entertainment. These are must-watch videos.

Original Post 

A Minnesota trifecta. Earlier today, two stories out of Minnesota, now this one, the third story out of Minnesota.

From a reader. So good on so many levels.


As much as I talk about Texas high school sports, I have to admit, this makes me want to be back in high school. As a hockey player. With hair. LOL.

Later:

• it turns out that these videos are an annual series; one can find annual all-hockey hair team videos going back any number of years; I've only begun to explore; and, 
• google hockey hair salad and you will get a gazillion hits, including this one: Minnesota and mullets: the grand tradition of hockey hair, MPR News. I thought "mullets" were a southern thing -- specifically lower Alabama -- only. Mullets in Minnesota -- you have to be kidding. And some folks have the audacity to give Trump a bad time about his orange comb-over. Give me a break. 

Of the videos I've looked at this one is particularly good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwDpSKDyKRU. A bit of history. If you do go to this video, skip quickly to 5:10 to see Carly Beniek, who took #1 in the annual Minnesota hair team.

Best line: Minnesota is so manly, if you type "MN" into your smart phone in Minnesota, it autocorrects to "MAN."

Without question, this should have been the subject of a "Seinfeld" sitcom. Kramer with "the hair" and Frank Costanza with the backstory -- it would have been hilarious. Or not. "Hairstory.'

MRO To Report Some Extraordinary Wells This Next Week -- Including A Couple Of "Old" Wells -- March 8, 2020

Wells coming off the confidential list this week, initial production data can be seen at this post:

• 35820, conf, MRO, Maher 41-14TFH, Bailey, t--; cum --; 140K in less than 5 months; a 40K month;
• 35821, conf, MRO, Bryden 11-13H, Bailey, t--; cum --; 135K in less than 5 months;
• 36026, conf, MRO, Herbert 41-14H, Bailey, t--; cum --; 130K in less than 5 months;
• 36027, conf, MRO, Pletan 11-13TFH, Bailey, t--; cum --; 110K in less than 5 months;

Other two wells in the graphic:

• 16909, see this post; re-fracked;
• 17817, 506, MRO, Kempf Trust 21-14H, Bailey, t6/09; cum 448K 1/20; re-fracked;

Two wells to the east, not seen in the graphic below that are also in play:

• 18694, IA/569, MRO, Scott Gaugler 14-24, Bailey, t8/10; cum 215K 7/19; remains off line 1/20;
• 24973, IA/2,437, MRO, Brigner 24-24, Bailey, t7/13; cum 244K 8/19; remains off line 1/20;

The graphic:

Something New In The Bakken? EOG, Fracking, Water Percentage By Mass, Sand -- March 8, 2020

Something new in the Bakken?

It begins at this link, posted a few days ago. It's a long, long note, interrupted by screenshots of data from FracFocus. I've added the notes a reader sent me almost immediately after posting that note. I delayed posting the reader's note until I had a chance to do some background reading.

Now, hold that thought -- the staggering production of that EOG well; the staggering amount of water used; and, the relatively large amount of sand -- relative to water by mass (percentage).

Now, go to these three EOG wells that will come off the confidential list this week. In two of the cases we have FracFocus data. Note again, the relative large amount of sand compared to the amount of water by mass. Generally I expect 87% to 93% water by mass in the FracFocus data but in this case, FracFocus reports 81% water by mass in one case; and, 83% water by mass in the second case.

FracFocus did not have data for the third well.

*******************************

Other Wells Of Interest

Completely unrelated to the note above, two wells have been added to the index of wells of interest:

• 28747, Clarks Creek, Slawson, Jore Federal; jump in production; 
• 17421, Union Center, BR, several Midnight Run wells off line without explanation, 1/20; 

It really is not much benefit looking at these wells. I do this for my benefit to remind myself to check back on these wells later.