- growth factor turned up (bad, really bad news)
- total deaths, change in total, still really, really low but went from 1% to 2% change, day-over-day (bad news)
- change in number of daily deaths, day-over-day, went from 37 to 58 which is not particularly bad, considering that almost all of them were in China, this still represented a 57% increase -- really, really bad
- the good news (few new deaths in countries outside of China) but that was offset by news of huge numbers of people now "of interest," as they say, in places like California and New York state
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Coronavirus Update -- February 27, 2020
This was not a good day for those anxious about coronavirus. The four most important indicators did not improve, but again, the number of deaths are so small, it doesn't take many to skew the results.
Idle Rambling; Not Ready For Prime Time -- All Politics -- February 27, 2020
When it comes to politics, the three polls I trust the least:
Perhpas Quinnipiac is one of the better ones.
But this is very, very interesting.
The Economist is about as liberal one can get; Fox News is about as conservative as one can get.
But in the national 2020 Democrat presidential race, Fox News and the Economist are showing almost identical results:
The other polls are showing the same thing.
Again, this is a national poll so it may not mean a thing with regard to delegates. Hillary (and others in the past) have won the popular vote but not the presidency.
Good, bad, indifferent, those numbers do not excite me one way or the other. This is what caught my attention: since January, Bernie Sanders has jumped 8 points (31%) while Joe Biden has dropped 8 points (18%).
That's a huge shift.
On top of that, people like Nancy Pelosi are publicly warming up to Bernie Sanders.
South Carolina: it looks like Biden could have a huge win. He would be doing even better if Tom Steyer and Buttigieg weren't taking votes from him. Everything suggests that Bernie will max out at 25% in South Carolina regardless of who else is running. Clyburn's endorsement was huge; herd mentality is strong in South Carolina (as it is in California and many [most] other states.
As I go through the rest of the states, it's a real toss-up: either Sanders gets the nomination in Milwaukee on the first vote, or he comes close, with no one having a majority on the first vote.
I'm not making light of this, but the Milwaukee brewery shooting today could very well ... how do I put this delicately ... let's do it from the other side of the coin: if Bernie doesn't get the nomination on the first vote and then loses on the second vote, all hell is going to break loose in that convention hall.
For the MAGA Trumpers, the question is this: who is worse for America. Not worse for Trump, but worse for America. I won't show my cards on that one, but like everything else on which I opine, I know I'm right. LOL. Sometimes I wonder how my wife can live with me. LOL.
Let's look at Bloomberg for a minute. Looking at momentum shifts and huge advertising campaign, the following is a real possibility. The following does not show up in the most recent polls, but if one looks at momentum and a huge advertising push, and no more debates, one could defend the following:
With the implosion of the stock market, this is the end of huge donations for Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Biden, Pocahontas. No matter how rich one is, a 25% loss in net worth gets one's attention.
South Carolina is going to give Biden bragging rights, but he is still going to run out of money, sooner than later.
Money wins. That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, and Steyer.
- Fox News
- The Economist
- CNN
Perhpas Quinnipiac is one of the better ones.
But this is very, very interesting.
The Economist is about as liberal one can get; Fox News is about as conservative as one can get.
But in the national 2020 Democrat presidential race, Fox News and the Economist are showing almost identical results:
- Bernie: 30% (Economist); 31% (Fox News)
- Biden: 18% (Economist); 20% (Fox News)
The other polls are showing the same thing.
Again, this is a national poll so it may not mean a thing with regard to delegates. Hillary (and others in the past) have won the popular vote but not the presidency.
Good, bad, indifferent, those numbers do not excite me one way or the other. This is what caught my attention: since January, Bernie Sanders has jumped 8 points (31%) while Joe Biden has dropped 8 points (18%).
That's a huge shift.
On top of that, people like Nancy Pelosi are publicly warming up to Bernie Sanders.
South Carolina: it looks like Biden could have a huge win. He would be doing even better if Tom Steyer and Buttigieg weren't taking votes from him. Everything suggests that Bernie will max out at 25% in South Carolina regardless of who else is running. Clyburn's endorsement was huge; herd mentality is strong in South Carolina (as it is in California and many [most] other states.
As I go through the rest of the states, it's a real toss-up: either Sanders gets the nomination in Milwaukee on the first vote, or he comes close, with no one having a majority on the first vote.
I'm not making light of this, but the Milwaukee brewery shooting today could very well ... how do I put this delicately ... let's do it from the other side of the coin: if Bernie doesn't get the nomination on the first vote and then loses on the second vote, all hell is going to break loose in that convention hall.
For the MAGA Trumpers, the question is this: who is worse for America. Not worse for Trump, but worse for America. I won't show my cards on that one, but like everything else on which I opine, I know I'm right. LOL. Sometimes I wonder how my wife can live with me. LOL.
***********************************
Bloomberg
Let's look at Bloomberg for a minute. Looking at momentum shifts and huge advertising campaign, the following is a real possibility. The following does not show up in the most recent polls, but if one looks at momentum and a huge advertising push, and no more debates, one could defend the following:
- Texas: a three-way, maybe four-way tie -- Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg ... Pocahontas.
- Virginia: much like Texas .... Bernie wins but Bloomberg, Biden hang in there. This may be the end for Buttigieg. Along with his showing in South Carolina.
- California: Bloomberg -- no chance at all, and no delegates. Sanders will take this one easily, but not decisively enough to take more than half the delegates.
- Minnesota: Bloomberg -- no chance at all, and no delegates.
- Minnesota: Klobuchar (huge win) but Sanders will do well (again, the delegate count favors a brokered convention)
- Florida: could be another huge win for Biden
***************************************
Money
With the implosion of the stock market, this is the end of huge donations for Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Biden, Pocahontas. No matter how rich one is, a 25% loss in net worth gets one's attention.
South Carolina is going to give Biden bragging rights, but he is still going to run out of money, sooner than later.
Money wins. That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, and Steyer.
Coronavirus -- Update -- February 27, 2020
We won't see the numbers until around midnight tonight, but right now there were 16 new deaths reported worldwide. Yesterday there were 38. If the "16" holds today, that will represent a change of minus 58%, the best in three days and continuing the downward trend.
In addition, the change in total number of deaths will be less than 1% -- the lowest it has been since the coronavirus outbreak was identified, and continuing the downward trend.
Of the 16 new deaths in the last 24 hours:
With such small numbers, it only takes a few deaths in any one day to really affect the overall percentages.
Diamond Princess. No new deaths reported in quite some time.
That "de novo" death in northern California is very, very interesting. More on that later, but I am on my way to picking up Sophia.
In addition, the change in total number of deaths will be less than 1% -- the lowest it has been since the coronavirus outbreak was identified, and continuing the downward trend.
Of the 16 new deaths in the last 24 hours:
- Iran: 7
- Italy: 5
- China: 2
- South Korea: 1
- Japan: 1
With such small numbers, it only takes a few deaths in any one day to really affect the overall percentages.
Diamond Princess. No new deaths reported in quite some time.
That "de novo" death in northern California is very, very interesting. More on that later, but I am on my way to picking up Sophia.
Adult male slate-colored junco. Compare with photograph at this link.
WTI Drops Below $47; Down Almost 5% -- February 27, 2020
Headline: Saudis slash March, 2020, crude oil exports to China as demand slumps.
Gasoline demand, link here.
Active rigs:
Two new permits today, #37414, - #37415, inclusive:
No permits renewed.
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Gasoline demand, link here.
********************************************
Back to the Bakken
| $46.43 | 2/27/2020 | 02/27/2019 | 02/27/2018 | 02/27/2017 | 02/27/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 50 | 66 | 57 | 41 | 38 |
Two new permits today, #37414, - #37415, inclusive:
- Operator: Kraken
- Field: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
- Comments:
- Kraken has permits for a two-well Redfield Central pad in NENW section 25-157-99, Lone Tree Lake oil field.
- Whiting: Ogden (3), Fladeland (2), Sondrol (1), Rauser (3), Harvey, (1).
No permits renewed.
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- February 27, 2020
Really? The presidential briefing on coronavirus included comment from several people in addition to the president. The most ridiculous comment came from one of the other speakers who recommended that schools "dust off" their "pandemic preparation" checklists. I kid you not. I was in the USAF for 30 years and if any agency has checklists for any and every eventuality, every contingency it would be the US military. Not once in those 30 years did I ever run across a "pandemic preparation" checklist. Today I received a note from the middle school which our middle granddaughter attends. The principal, bless his heart, sent out "the" checklist. LOL. It started with, "wash your hands frequently."
Love him or hate him: who would you rather have in charge with regard to coronavirus? Bush II, Barack Obama or Donald Trump? With the first, in over his head; with the second, a lot of speeches. With Trump, we will see heads roll after the first US coronavirus-related death if it could have been prevented. Those CDC folks may seem smug on the outside but inside they know their futures are in the hands of a demanding president up for re-election later this year.
China and Apple: soon to part ways.
Pipelines: Putin is building a multi-billion-dollar Nordstream 2 pipeline to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. Meanwhile, New York bans natural gas from neighboring Pennsylvania. Putin must think we're nuts.
Campaign 2020 funding: drying up. The stock market implosion will put an end to frivolous campaign donations. Won't affect Bernie, Steyer, or Bloomberg. Buttigieg, Pocahontas, Biden, Klobuchar: last nail in their coffins. Earlier it was reported "Hollywood" has even said "enough is enough."
Coronavirus: the smartest thing the administration could do is post daily seasonal flu deaths in the US alongside coronavirus deaths in the US and remind people that the CDC-sanctioned "flu shot" is less than 45% effective. [My hunch: the "flu shot" is significantly less than 45% effective; the CDC would want best number possible, and would post results under optimum testing conditions.]
Hope springs eternal. Royal Dutch Shell (does Queen Elizabeth allow them to use the word "Royal"? -- just wondering, but I digress) says it will continue with plans for "massive" deep-water drilling plan in Mexico even though the company knows it is unlikely to see any production under the current Mexican government. Link here:
I'm very new at this, and it won't get much better. So if you are into "birding" this is NOT the site to visit.
Showing up at the same time as the male cardinal above, the bird in the bottom photo is most likely a very young cardinal. I was thinking "something else," but the red beak really really suggests a cardinal. In addition, a male-female cardinal pair are regular visitors to our backyard patio, so it would be likely they have hatchling or two.
Love him or hate him: who would you rather have in charge with regard to coronavirus? Bush II, Barack Obama or Donald Trump? With the first, in over his head; with the second, a lot of speeches. With Trump, we will see heads roll after the first US coronavirus-related death if it could have been prevented. Those CDC folks may seem smug on the outside but inside they know their futures are in the hands of a demanding president up for re-election later this year.
China and Apple: soon to part ways.
Pipelines: Putin is building a multi-billion-dollar Nordstream 2 pipeline to bring natural gas from Russia to Germany. Meanwhile, New York bans natural gas from neighboring Pennsylvania. Putin must think we're nuts.
Campaign 2020 funding: drying up. The stock market implosion will put an end to frivolous campaign donations. Won't affect Bernie, Steyer, or Bloomberg. Buttigieg, Pocahontas, Biden, Klobuchar: last nail in their coffins. Earlier it was reported "Hollywood" has even said "enough is enough."
Coronavirus: the smartest thing the administration could do is post daily seasonal flu deaths in the US alongside coronavirus deaths in the US and remind people that the CDC-sanctioned "flu shot" is less than 45% effective. [My hunch: the "flu shot" is significantly less than 45% effective; the CDC would want best number possible, and would post results under optimum testing conditions.]
Hope springs eternal. Royal Dutch Shell (does Queen Elizabeth allow them to use the word "Royal"? -- just wondering, but I digress) says it will continue with plans for "massive" deep-water drilling plan in Mexico even though the company knows it is unlikely to see any production under the current Mexican government. Link here:
The global oil major plans to drill four wells this year, and a similar amount next year, said Alberto de La Fuente, Shell’s Mexico country chief. It’s part of a drilling campaign that will include 10 to 13 wells and cost from $800 million to $2.4 billion.
Shell has a major position in Mexico’s deep-waters at a time when access is hard to come by. Mexico’s new government under Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, has promised to reverse the neoliberal policies of his predecessor and has canceled further auctions and joint-venture opportunities with state owned Petroleos Mexicanos.
“First oil, if we are successful, is unlikely to occur before the end of AMLO’s term, due to the complexity of deep-water fields, which can take anywhere from five years to a decade to start producing,” De La Fuente, who’s also president of AMEXHI, the national hydrocarbons association.What's wrong with this list? See story at this link. Saudi Aramco signed 66 MOUs worth $21 billion for oil, gas, refining projects.
************************************************
Backyard Birding
I'm very new at this, and it won't get much better. So if you are into "birding" this is NOT the site to visit.
Showing up at the same time as the male cardinal above, the bird in the bottom photo is most likely a very young cardinal. I was thinking "something else," but the red beak really really suggests a cardinal. In addition, a male-female cardinal pair are regular visitors to our backyard patio, so it would be likely they have hatchling or two.
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