A Bit More On The Reinstated Whiting Permit -- December 17, 2019

I often say the Bakken never ceases to amaze me. Well, here we go again. In today's daily activity report:

Most interesting: a Whiting permit reinstated --

• #29504, an Oakland permit in section 29-151-103, McKenzie County

I didn't think about it much at the time, but then decided to see where it was located and take a look at the neighboring wells. Wow, this location is about as remote as one can get in North Dakota. It's just south of the river, far west McKenzie County, near Montana. There are very, very few wells in the area and the only well in the immediate area is this one:

• 20185, 607, Whiting, Oakland 151-103-29B-22-1H, Glass Bluff, t4/12; cum 175K 10/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	867	887	1185	763	701	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	890	877	1215	761	661	40
BAKKEN	8-2019	22	573	658	961	523	479	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	905	654	1315	831	771	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	795	868	1097	821	532	235
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	875	1079	1235	896	804	30

By all criteria, particularly by today's standards, this is a fairly mediocre well at best, and now Whiting, the company that has been setting all-time records for canceling permits, has a permit in this immediate area re-instated. Makes absolutely no sense to me. So, we'll see.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 17, 2019

First things first, my go-to sandwich meat (after bologna and liverwurst): why Spam is breaking records.

Better call your Congressional representative: the "stretch IRA" is about to go away or at least be severely modified.

Economic cycles: "everyone" says we are "due" for a recession because it's been so long since the last recession. That, of course, makes no sense at all. Like flipping pennies. If one gets tails ten times in a row, the odds are still 50-50 that the next toss will result in heads (or tails). "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." I suggest we erase the economic-cycle graphs for the last one hundred years, and simply start with a fresh, new graph as of December 18, 2019. Now, with nothing to look at prior to December 18, 2019, when is the next recession likely?

Automobile service centers: no matter what you go in for, the mechanics will find additional work that needs to be done. The other day I went in to have my battery replaced. This car is very, very well maintained; I take it in like clockwork every six months for an inspection and an oil change, whether it needs it or not. Every six months. Last time I went in, it was deemed AAA+++ in mint condition, nothing else needed. But less then 3,000 miles later when I went in simply for a battery replacement, it was noted I needed:

• two new front tires
• new spark plugs
• fuel system cleaning

Technically the tires were good for another 6,000 miles, I suppose, but with winter sleet, ice, and possibility of snow, the better part of valor ....

Mr Lonely, Bobby Vinton

It Gets Tedious; Disingenuous Reporting By The EIA -- December 17, 2019

Wow, I love this. Earlier today the EIA reported record US crude oil, liquid condensate, and natural gas prove reserves for 2018. I reported this earlier at this post.

The very first line of the EIA report:

Another year of stronger oil and natural gas prices increased 2018 oil and natural gas proved reserves in the United States to another all-time record level.

The EIA report also said this in the summary:

Proved reserves of crude oil in the United States increased 12%, from 39.2 billion barrels at year-end 2017 to 43.8 billion barrels at year-end 2018, setting another U.S. record for crude oil proved reserves. The previous record was set in 2017 (39.2 billion barrels).

So, in 2017 and 2018, the US set new all-time records for proved reserves of crude oil, liquid condensate and natural gas.

Trump was elected president in 2016 and he assumed the presidency in early 2017, remaining in office through 2018, and will probably be in office to the end of 2019 when another record will be set.

Of course, prior to his presidency we had this doofus (if you ever want to find this clip quickly, search "doofus"):

Doofus-in-Chief

We just can't drill our way to lower prices -- we also have to build pipelines. Gasoline is twice as expensive in California as it is in Texas (or so I'm told by my brother-in-law) -- 

This is what caught my interest: the all-time records set in 2017 and 2018 were a combination of a number of things which the EIA conveniently forgot to note. Most important was the favorable environment for the oil companies which was set by the commander-in-chief. One of the first things he did was clear the way for DAPL.

Of almost equal importance, of course, was the technology, skills, yada, yada, of US oil companies cracking the code to successfully produce shale oil.

Again, the very first line of the EIA report:

Another year of stronger oil and natural gas prices increased 2018 oil and natural gas proved reserves in the United States to another all-time record level.

In fact, crude oil and natural gas prices had nothing to do with record levels set in 2018. We don't need to go through that story, but this graphic pretty much says it all, which, by the way, was in the EIA report linked above:

 

It gets tedious.

Government Shutdown Averted -- It Only Cost $1.3 Trillion -- December 17, 2019

When I first heard the headlines to this story, it sounded like Democrat spending, but the GOP got what they wanted.

• Good, bad, or indifferent, but for all those folks who did not like ObamaCare, the bill will repeal three ObamaCare taxes:
• the medical device tax (benefits big, bad corporations)
• the tax for "Cadillac care" health insurance policies (affected unions who negotiated great health care programs)
• penalty tax on those who did not buy health insurance tax
• the feds will raise the minimum age to 21 to buy tobacco in all forms, and vaping products
• the Defense Department will receive $22 billion more than it received during the previous fiscal year
• establishes a quasi-formal sixth branch of the US military, the Space Force
• active duty military will receive the largest increase in basic pay in a decade, a 3.1% increase in pay
• [military retirees were given a 2.8% in their 2020 pension in an earlier bill]
• President Trump --- and I find this amazing-- got a lot for the southern wall
• $1.375 billion (didn't Trump want $1.4 billion; so Nancy Pelosi can say he didn't get what he wanted)
• the bill will also give Trump more flexibility where the wall will be built
• the overall spending bill will exceed $1 trillion for the first time since 2012
• as bad as it sounds, the spending bill will contribute to less than 5%of the GDP (on the down side)
• and for years folks have been asking for "gun research": this bill provides $25 million for gun research 

Politics:

• looks like Mike Bloomberg just got sucked into the #MeToo whirlpool 
• Pocahontas: previously reported, but apparently it's getting more coverage -- she lost half her base when she said she would take away their private insurance; here's the thing ....

Otter Woman Wells Sited In Section 5-148-93; Mandaree Field Oil Wells

These wells are sited in lot 2/section 5-148-93, McGregory Buutes, but run north into two different drilling units to the north, in the Mandaree oil field.

The wells:

• 33846, 3,642, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HG, Mandaree, t8/18; cum 397K 9/20; cum 458K 4/22;
  

Full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	11342	11340	6478	19042	16936	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	9887	9908	5895	15023	12932	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	10042	10008	6503	13959	11747	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	11939	11954	7544	17378	14989	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	12473	12482	8297	18735	16314	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	15433	15478	10565	20306	17518	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	14916	14922	9505	19716	17018	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	18927	18875	11939	16062	13077	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	21349	21321	13241	19609	16486	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	30	30425	30499	17257	31664	27453	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	34464	34527	23711	29724	25069	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	38938	38805	23294	31656	18328	8542
BAKKEN	10-2018	17	18408	18497	12811	14966	4242	8622
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	31241	31154	24807	25399	15516	6388
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	67066	66921	63459	54524	2373	44817
BAKKEN	7-2018	25	0	0	78	0	0	0

The other wells on this pad:

• 33847, 2,462, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HP, Mandaree, t8/18; cum 299K 9/20; cum 357K 4/22;
  
• 34247, 2,462, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HEL, Mandaree, t7/18; cum 420K 9/20; cum 495K 4/22;
  
• 34246, 2,913, WPX, Otter Woman 35-36HG, Mandaree, t7/18; cum 236K 9/20; cum 295K 4/22;
  
• 34245, 2,535, WPX, Otter Woman 35-36HU, Mandaree, t8/18; cum 250K 9/20; cum 321K 4/22;