Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 23, 2019

Disclaimer: I often make typographical and/or factual errors. If this is important to you go to the source. 

Note: in all posts there will be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. Opinions and facts are often hard to tell apart but I don't intentionally post fake news. I do have a hidden agenda: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Note: the blogger app I use is owned by Google. They use cookies. 

Intermittent blogging due to traveling.

Top stories for the week may be delayed.

Nothing about the Bakken on this page.

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Back to the Blog

One of my favorite YouTube videos is the Fleetwood Mac "Tusk" with the USC Marching Band.

USC -- graduate school -- is my alma mater. Free tuition for four years. Whoo-hoo! LOL.

Back to the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrRVW-p8SJ8.

There are so many story lines. Several thoughts: whoever thought of doing this was an absolute genius. Whoever would have thought of doing this? It set some world records at the time; I don't know if those world records still hold. This is so "southern California." This is MAGA on steroids. Can you imagine this at a political rally? A nominating convention.

The choreography. My hunch is that 285 band members were little involved in the planning, preparation, and/or practice. It shows the complete professionalism and ability to think quickly by everyone on stage. Do you see a "director" or "conductor"? [Yes, at 3:25 -- but ...] Do you see a drum major or drum majorette leading the band? Can you imagine the competition to become one of the 300 USC marching band members.

I bet it costs upwards of $500,000 to get your daughter in the band. LOL. If she doesn't make the band, she can always try out for the rowing team. Can you imagine the sound editor in real time -- managing the sound of a small rock band backed up by a huge college marching band. The pre-placement of the microphones; the band members negotiating the constrained stage. The crowd control -- completely unseen. No uniformed law enforcement that I could see. Mick Fleetwood looks completely crazed (in a good way). And FM's energy! Wow, they had just put on a 2-hour concert and then this.

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American Express

From the musician: I first heard this tune on YouTube. I loved it but I couldn't find any music for it so I had to learn it by ear. Please comment and let me know where I can get sheet music for it, or what I could do to improve it!

November 23, 2019, Part 1 -- Nothing About The Bakken

I'm on vacation for the next few days. Blogging about the Bakken will not be my priority. I would recommend folks coming here to read about the Bakken wait until Tuesday, November 26, 2019, to come back to the blog.

Disclaimer: I often make typographical and/or factual errors. If this is important to you go to the source. 

Note: in all posts there will be factual and typographical errors. If anything on the blog is important to you, go to the source. Opinions and facts are often hard to tell apart but I don't intentionally post fake news. I do have a hidden agenda: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Note: the blogger app I use is owned by Google. They use cookies. 

Intermittent blogging due to traveling.

Top stories for the week may be delayed.

Lots of moving parts in the last 24 hours:

• son-in-law flew out to his parents in Kentucky earlier in the to see sister's  new baby, his first niece
• Arianna and Sophia flew unaccompanied to Kentucky last night to meet up with father to see said new niece
• daughter and middle granddaughter Olivia on way to Miami, FL, to participate in soccer tournament; later in week, they fly cross-country to Las Vegas, NV, to participate in another soccer tournament
• my wife and I are headed out to the Permian for a couple of days

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Things On My Mind

Other Than Family

And The Blog

Biggest business story of the week: Schwab to buy TD Ameritrade. TD Ameritrade is huge in the DFW area; much new building in the last five years. Now, all that becomes Schwab. One wonders what this was all about. How long were the talks going on? But going forward this really is likely to shake up the banking and brokerage industry. One wonders about Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, how this affects Merrill Lynch? I am very, very familiar with both (ML and Schwab).

Compare: But look at this, from yesterday, yes, it's dated November 22, 2019, a comparison between Schwab and ML -- over at Stockbrokers. 

Longest US bull market in history
Energy
Apple

• that AirPod story from yesterday blew me away

YouTube music

• cat-and-mouse game to remove copyright material

My three books for the week:

• Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009. -- nearly completed.
• The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009. -- about a third of the way through.
• And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008. -- halfway through, again.

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Back to the Blog

Barron's top stories:

• Pfizer's new strategy makes it worth another look
• Charles Schwab stock could surge after a TD Ameritrade deal
• The bull market could end in 2020. Or not. Be prepared. Shouldn't one always be prepared?

Now, notes from readers.

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Greta: Geta Grip

Anyone who doesn't understand what's going on with regard to anti-fracking movement in the US isn't paying attention.

GDP:



Take my breath away:

Berlin

National team soccer player; Ph.D, mother.

Certified SCUBA diver and open-water sailor; little sister.

Not So Happy Tonight -- Berkeley, CA, Restaurants -- November 22, 2019

Berkeley, CA, restaurants sue the city of Berkely, CA, over the ban on natural gas hook-ups in new buildings.

And so it goes.

Plenty of natural gas for California restaurateurs who want to re-locate to Texas. The interesting thing: menus are very similar, except not so much avocado toast in Texas.

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The Apple Page

Earlier today I caught a short episode on CNBC. After seeing that particular segment I sent this note to a reader:

On another note: nice market action today after three days of being in the red. I've gone back to watching CNBC if I get the chance. Of the high-profile hosts, Michael Santoli (Michael Santoli) seems to be out of his depth. I've never seen anyone so consistently negative about any stock. His cup is always "half empty" when for the rest of us, it's "half full."

I made that comment following a segment when it was pointed out how well Apple's Air Pods were doing.

Michael Santoli blew it (the story) off, saying that Apple was all about its iPhone. Nothing else "moved the needle."

What a doofus.

The following from MacRumor. 

From sixcolors:

Best comment:

https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2019/11/19/airpods-are-becoming-a-platform

“AirPods will turn out to be one of the more strategically important hardware products Apple has released this decade. However, you would never know it judging from the way Apple unveiled the device last week. I suspect that was intentional. While the press remains focused on the short-term debate surrounding the iPhone's lack of a 3.5mm headphone jack, few have realized that Apple just unveiled its second wearables platform.”

I do believe that with the AirPods, Apple is well on its way to own the wireless headphones market. While the detractors will dismiss it as overpriced for the sound quality, they once again (predictably) miss the big picture.

This is a runaway train that would be pretty difficult to stop or even slow.

Be sure to read the comments if you are at all interested in the story.

Steve Jobs: a gazillion successes, but iTunes was one of this most brilliant.

Tim Cook: not as brilliant at Steve Jobs, but comparing apples and oranges. AirPods, developed under his watch, will go down as his most brilliant hardware product.

Three New Permits -- November 22, 2019

CRC: down another 6.7% today. The Dow was up about 109 points. Perhaps CRC can be followed as a proxy for the future of oil in California.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.97	11/22/2019	11/22/2018	11/22/2017	11/22/2016	11/22/2015
Active Rigs	57	62	54	36	65

Three new permits, #37211 - #37213, inconclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Tioga (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for a 3-well TI-Nelson pad in section 30-157-94, Tioga oil field;

One permit canceled:

• Oasis: a Fraser Federal permit in Williams County

A Huge, Huge Miss On My Part -- A Reader Bails Me Out -- November 22, 2019

I was so caught up in the anti-Greta rant I completely missed the bigger story.

Forget about pollution.

Forget about CO2 emissions.

Look at this story in terms of economic growth in this country. Folks are laser-focused on quarterly GDP of various countries around the world, and miss the long-term story. A reader sent me this. First, a re-posting of an earlier story:

Across China, a whopping 148GW of coal-fired plants are either being built or are about to begin construction, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit group that monitors coal stations. Putting that number in context, the current capacity of the entire EU coal fleet is 149GW, or the same as what China is about to add.

I pride myself in taking a deeper look when given numbers I can't get my arms around, but in this case I blew it. I never thought about what 148GW of coal-fired plants meant. Yes, I saw that was the "current capacity of the entire EU coal fleet" but I blew that off -- thinking that the EU coal fleet had significantly declined over the past decade.

But a reader put this in perspective:

I have found, over the years, that simply providing raw numbers is not so impactful as charts and/or relative context. 

So ... 150 Gigawatts... If one took a massive, single 1,000 Megawatt coal fired plant ... then took 150 of them ... one would arrive at that 150 Gw figure.

That is, if each state in the US - right now - started building THREE massive coal plants, the Chinese equivalent would be realized.

(The Navajo-operated Four Corners plant - now shutting down - is rated at ~2,000 Mw).

For further context/comparison, take the two (2) massive offshore wind projects proposed off New York state - Empire and Sunrise. At an effective output of just over 800 Megawatts (1,700 namplate at 48% capacity factor), these $10 BILLION boondoggles will not even equal the output of a single, 1,000 new Chinese coal plant.

Pure insanity.

 My first thought: the off-shore wind lobby is certainly very, very powerful.

But I digress.

Forget about the pollution. Forget about the CO2 emissions (FWIW -- nothing). What catches my eye: how big China is (and will be going forward). This puts in perspective how big that population is, and what the economy will need from the rest of the world in terms of food and consumer goods.

Those numbers above -- three massive coal plants in each of the 50 US states -- that simply blows me away.

And, those offshore wind projects -- yeah ... insanity.

A huge thank you to my readers for keeping me on track.

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A Very Clever Christmas Gift / Stocking Stuffer

This is perfect for .... every age group. Seriously.



It will be interesting to see how this product does over the holidays.

I remember when I was in college a representative from 3M (makers of Scotch tape). He talked about how the company brainstormed uses for adhesive, everything from Post-It notes to adhesives used in those huge green interstate signs. This seems to be another example -- 2 x 2 photo stickies.