Monday, October 7, 2019: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter:
35653, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HW,
35652, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HA,
Sunday, October 6, 2019: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter:
35651, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HS,
35650, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 36-25HB,
34968, conf, CLR, Rader 10-24H,
34908, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H,
Saturday, October 5, 2019: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter:
35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H,
35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1,
34759, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H,
Friday, October 4, 2019: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter:
35649, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HU,
35315, conf, CLR, Putnam 11-25HSL,
35314, conf, CLR, Putnam 10-25H1,
35313, conf, CLR, Putnam 9-25H,
31809, conf, EOG, Riverview 21-3032H,
Thursday, October 3, 2019: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter:
35648, conf, WPX, Hackberry 34-27HG,
34762, conf, Whiting, Berger 21-15 -1TFH,
34596, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-4,
Wednesday, October 2, 2019: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter:
34595, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-3,
Tuesday, October 1, 2019: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter:
34761, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-10-1TFH,
34594, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-LE-154-93-3031H-1,
34440, conf, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF,
34439, conf, Enerplus, Daffy 148-93-20A-29H,
34438, conf, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF,
34437, conf, Enerplus, Canvasback 148-93-20B-29H,
Monday, September 30, 2019: 73 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
35628, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H,
33592, conf, BR, Anderson Ranch 1E MBH,
Sunday, September 29, 2019: 71 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
35312, conf, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1,
34825, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H,
Saturday, September 28, 2019: 69 for the month; 201 for the quarter:
None.
Sunday, September 29, 2019
US Shale Revolution, The Permian, And Jobs -- September 29, 2019
Rigzone: Permian oil and gas to support 93,000 jobs in 2020. Link here.
Of course, that does not compare to the 730 million women that Joe Biden promises to bring back into the American workforce if he is elected president.
But back to reality. How does 93,000 compare to earlier numbers?
From Rigzone:
Rig counts don't excite me. Frack spreads do. But even so -- we need more data but glad to see folks starting to track and report frack spreads.
From Rigzone:
Of course, that does not compare to the 730 million women that Joe Biden promises to bring back into the American workforce if he is elected president.
But back to reality. How does 93,000 compare to earlier numbers?
- that's about 6,000 more jobs that 1H19
- that's 12,000 more jobs than 2018
*******************************
Newest Permian Pipeline Has Begun Full Commercial Service
From Rigzone:
- natural gas pipeline
- KMI (34% interest); others: Altus Midstream; DCP Midstream; Targa Resources (affiliate)
- committed shippers: DCP; Targa; Apache; Pioneer Natural Resources; Exxon-subsidiary XTO
- the Gulf Coast Express Pipeline (GCX)
- from the Permian Basin to the Texas gulf coast
- specifically from the Waha area in west Texas to Agua Dulce near Corpus Christi
- capacity: 2 billion cfpd (350,000 boepd)
- comes in one month ahead of schedule
- 3,000 contractors
- 6 million contractor hours: no major safety incident
*******************************
Finally
Rig counts don't excite me. Frack spreads do. But even so -- we need more data but glad to see folks starting to track and report frack spreads.
From Rigzone:
In its latest weekly newsletter, Primary Vision points out that U.S. frac spread counts are down nearly 100 since mid-spring. Roughly two-thirds of the reported declines are in three plays:
“We may not see a comeback at all, but we’re predicting that it will level off before getting much worse because of planned completions,” noted Johnson.
- Permian Basin: down 30 frac spreads
- Eagle Ford Shale: down 20 frac spreads
- Williston Basin: down 15 frac spreads
Johnson attributes the downward movement in frac spread counts in recent months to operators’ ability to do more with less.
“It seems that more wells were completed with less spreads,” he said. “When the dust settles, it will be interesting to understand how utilization changed year over year.”But again, "down nearly 100 frack spreads since mid-spring, 2019" but how many frack spreads are there altogether.
Even The "Expert" Was Really, Really Wrong -- September 29, 2019
Daniel Yergin wrote the bible on oil. I've read his book twice. Since then he has come out with updated editions; those I have not read. But if anyone knows oil, it's Daniel Yergin.
But even he was really, really wrong -- again, US shale changed everything.
From North American Shale -- an essay three days after that attack --
It begins:
I've talked about this before. Whenever I see the Saudi attacks as "the largest single disruption of oil production in history," a lot of things pass through my mind.
Within a week, price of oil back to where it was pre-attack. "The largest single disruption of oil production in history" and oil is back to pre-attack price in less than two weeks.
We never saw any appreciable jump in gasoline prices; if there were regional jumps in the price of gasoline, the rise was very, very short-lived.
There were no lines of vehicles waiting to get gasoline.
So, if this was the "the largest single disruption of oil production in history" it sure didn't amount to much.
Compare that to the Suez Crisis of 1956 and the OPEC embargo of 1973.
But even he was really, really wrong -- again, US shale changed everything.
From North American Shale -- an essay three days after that attack --
It begins:
Following the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudia Arabia, the largest single disruption of oil production in history, the experts at global energy analysis firm IHS Markit have issued several plausible outcomes.The outcomes are based on a timeline linked to the time required to bring back online the production volumes impacted from the unplanned outages that recently took place and caused the price of Brent Crude to rise by roughly $10/b overnight.According to IHS Markit, the potential impact can be thought of in three time dimensions:Again, another red herring: “The amount of Saudi oil offline is equivalent to one-third of what passes everyday through the strait of Hormuz."
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, said that what was a risk scenario at one point has become a reality. “The amount of Saudi oil offline is equivalent to one-third of what passes everyday through the strait of Hormuz,” adding that two things will jangle the oil market in the coming days, “how long the recovery and what comes next.”
- limited (7 to 14 days)
- extended but manageable (30 to 120 days)
- structural (120+ days)
I've talked about this before. Whenever I see the Saudi attacks as "the largest single disruption of oil production in history," a lot of things pass through my mind.
Within a week, price of oil back to where it was pre-attack. "The largest single disruption of oil production in history" and oil is back to pre-attack price in less than two weeks.
We never saw any appreciable jump in gasoline prices; if there were regional jumps in the price of gasoline, the rise was very, very short-lived.
There were no lines of vehicles waiting to get gasoline.
So, if this was the "the largest single disruption of oil production in history" it sure didn't amount to much.
Compare that to the Suez Crisis of 1956 and the OPEC embargo of 1973.
UAW VS EVS -- September 29, 2019
I was planning to do a long essay on this, but I'm no longer in the mood. I might come back to it.
Data point: after landscaping, sector providing most jobs for newly arrived blue collar immigrants -- auto servicing including service stations.
Data point: they don't need us any more. Auto workers fear electric unrest. -- Bloomberg.
Data point: GM moving on.
For me, there was always a rational component to the EV story and an emotional component.
Sometime in the past two weeks, that emotional component has completely disappeared. I no long "think emotionally" about EVs.
The more I think about all the natural gas that will be required to power all these EVs, the more excited I get. Well, I guess that's an "emotional appeal." Never mind.
Data point: after landscaping, sector providing most jobs for newly arrived blue collar immigrants -- auto servicing including service stations.
Data point: they don't need us any more. Auto workers fear electric unrest. -- Bloomberg.
Data point: GM moving on.
Even as General Motors Co. and the United Auto Workers union come closer to resolving their biggest work confrontation in decades, a larger, unsettled issue is the inevitable pain for U.S. workers from GM’s long-range bet on electric cars.
GM’s need to free up cash to invest in electrics has led it to make deep cuts in its core business, including its decision to close four U.S. factories —a main point of friction in the longest walkout at GM since 1970.
For the UAW, there’s no avoiding the harsh reality of a wider transition taking hold across the auto industry: Building electric vehicles requires far fewer workers, making it near-impossible to avoid job losses and wage cuts. In addition, fewer components are needed, and many of them are imported.
For me, there was always a rational component to the EV story and an emotional component.
Sometime in the past two weeks, that emotional component has completely disappeared. I no long "think emotionally" about EVs.
The more I think about all the natural gas that will be required to power all these EVs, the more excited I get. Well, I guess that's an "emotional appeal." Never mind.
Where There's A Will, There's A Way -- September 29, 2019
Link here.
I can already hear the heads exploding in British Columbia.
Bit by bit by bit by rail.
From the linked article:
Back on April 21, 2014, re-posting:
RBN Energy: how killing the Keystone XL is killing the small Canadian operators; this could work out well for the large operators; railbit vs dilbit.
Angels In Heaven, Chris Rodrigues & the Spoon Lady
I can already hear the heads exploding in British Columbia.
Bit by bit by bit by rail.
From the linked article:
A test shipment of bitumen oil from Alberta is on its way to China, but it didn’t get to a British Columbia port by pipeline – it was moved by train through Prince Rupert in a semi-solid form commonly known as neatbit.
Melius Energy in Calgary is not the first company to propose moving bitumen through BC in a semi-solid form by train, but it appears to be the first to actually land a potential customer in China and start shipping semi-solid bitumen by train.
It has sent its first container, containing 130 barrels of bitumen, to China in a test shipment, and is currently building a new demonstration plant in Edmonton that turns diluted bitumen into a solid called TrueCrude.
Using existing rail infrastructure, Melius says it could potentially move 120,000 barrels per day of pure bitumen in 100-unit trains through the Port of Prince Rupert.Here or elsewhere they refer to this as neatbit. I thought it was "railbit" but perhaps neatbit is somewhat different. And don't confuse dilbit with Dilbert. One is a cartoon character.
Neatbit, dilbit, railbit, a dollar,"Do I hear an amen?"
All for Alberta, stand up and holler.
Back on April 21, 2014, re-posting:
RBN Energy: how killing the Keystone XL is killing the small Canadian operators; this could work out well for the large operators; railbit vs dilbit.
Two weeks ago we noted that a unit train of railbit moved from Alberta’s oil sands region to an unloading facility at Natchez, MS. We learned subsequently that the unit train concerned carried dilbit crude (bitumen typically blended with 30 percent diluent) not railbit (bitumen blended with 17-20 percent diluent). Turns out we made some assumptions about the capability to load unit trains with railbit that ran counter to existing constraints that appear to make such a shipment impractical at present. In today’s blog we clarify these constraints and in the process shed light on the challenges faced by smaller oil sands producers trying to get their bitumen crude to market.And now, for a something a bit (no pun intended) different:
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