Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Amazon Has Destroyed US Retail -- SecTreasury Mnuchin -- July 24, 2019

SecTreasury Mnuchin says Amazon has destroyed US retail. 

I'll start shopping on-line at Target, Walmart, Sears, or any other retailer if that on-line retailer:
  • offers the same number of line items as Amazon; including Amazon's full inventory of books (Barnes and Noble does not offer as many book selections as Amazon; and, that's BN's core -- selling books)
  • offers the same no-questions asked for any return; full refund as does Amazon;
  • offers one-click buying;
  • offers same day delivery; sometimes one-hour delivery;
  • offers a credit card with 5% cash reward loyalty benefits
  • offers "unlimited free" video 
  • offers unlimited access to 3rd party sellers 
  • gladly accepts almost any credit card
  • offers "complete" security (remember the Target breach? probably the biggest retail security breach in history); to the best of my knowledge, Amazon has never had a security breach
  • knows me well enough to "target" me with ads I appreciate
  • sends me products for free if I promise to review them
  • free shipping
  • at least "meets" Amazon pricing
The SecTreasury suggests breaking up Amazon. Perhaps Amazon One will sell products beginning with the letters A - L; and, Amazon Two will sell products beginning with the letters M - Z, and the two companies need to be completely separate companies.

Amazon accounts for less than 5% of total US retail sales.

OKE, Ford, Tesla: 2Q19 -- Earnings -- July 24, 2019

OKE: if I'm reading this correctly, OKE has decreased its next dividend from 86.5 cents (5.05% annual yield) to 25 cents (1.46% annual yield). 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

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Ford

2Q19 earnings: beats on both top line, bottom line.
  • Estimates: Analysts expect Ford earnings per share to increase 11% to 30 cents despite sales slipping 4% to $34.51 billion as sales in the U.S., China and Europe fell. The Dearborn, Mich.-based automaker is phasing out passenger cars like the Focus.  
  • Results: EPS of 32 cents on automotive revenue of $35.07 billion. 
Stock plunges after hours; drops 7% on weak guidance.

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Tesla

Updates
Posted In "Real-Time" 

Later, 3:49 p.m. CT: Finally, after hours, Tesla shares plunge 4% -- earnings must be out. Now, down almost 8%; down almost $20. If the earnings are not out, "someone knows something" the rest of us don't know. Particularly bad considering:
  • the stock was trading higher all day on an otherwise down day for the market (Dow)
  • pundits were thrilled about upside surprise on 2Q19 deliveries
Ticker:
  • 3:51, no earnings report; down 8.64%; down $22.32/share
  • 3:57 p.m., earnings out: down 9.23%; $24.44/share
  • 3.58 p.m.: down 10.76%; $28.35/share
  • 3:59 p.m.: down 10.94%; $28.94/share
  • 3:59 p.m.: down 11.04%; $29.23/share
  • by 4:03, trending toward a loss of 12%/share; a loss of $31/share
Watching the ticker; still don't see any report of earnings.

CNBC (when I couldn't find earnings report, I quickly turned on the television, and CNBC was just announcing results:
  • reporting a loss of $1.12 (consensus was for a loss of 40 cents/share)
  • gross margin: 19% (second or third consecutive quarter of decline; investors hoping for 20% or better; Munster says 19% respectable considering price of Model 3)
  • disaster for investors 
  • revenue in line; guidance on deliveries not 
  • "extreme demoralizing release from Tesla; big miss; bar pretty low; record vehicle sales; if you can't generate a profit on record high sales" -- talking head 
  • CNBC: trying to reassure investors but "maximum disappointment"
  • "Goldilocks" quarter and they still lost over a dollar/share
  • free cash flow -- $614 million  ($136 million expected)  -- due to higher deliveries
  • Model 3: structurally unprofitable; S and X -- decreasing sales
  • impressed by free cash flow (but that's very temporary -- based on higher deliveries)
    • interesting: CNBC hanging their hat on "free cash flow"
    • and, yet, lost money on a record-setting sales quarter
  • tax credit goes away completely at end of year
Original Post

Deliveries: upside surprise on 2Q19 deliveries. 
Earlier this month, TSLA said it delivered 95,200 total vehicles in Q2, ahead of Wall Street’s estimate for 91,000. That’s the widest beat in at least three years.
While we're waiting, from August 1, 2018, Tesla's free cash flow:

Tesla free cash flow at this link.

We'll see if Tesla reports it's free cash flow for 2Q19 earnings.

We're Doing Fine -- NOG Press Release -- As Shares Trend Toward 52-Week Low -- July 24, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read.

From what I can tell, this press release provides no "new" information except to reassure investors "things are on track."

Fifteen DUCs Reported As Completed; Whiting, Bruin With Several Great Wells -- July 24, 2019

Active rigs:

$55.807/24/201907/24/201807/24/201707/24/201607/24/2015
Active Rigs5866593273

Three new permits, #36781 - 36783, inclusive):
  • Operators: Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P. (2); Equinor
  • Field: Dimond (Burke County); Last Chance (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Lime Rock has permits for a 2-well Mariner ... 91P pad in section 15-160-91, Dimond oil field
    • Equinor has a permit for a Marcia well in lot 3 / section 3-153-100, Last Chance oil field
Four permits renewed:
  • Whiting (2): two P Bibler permits in Williams County
  • Slawson: one Stallion permit in Mountrail County
  • Sinclair: one Olson Federal permit in Dunn County
Three permits canceled:
  • Whiting (2): two P Thomas permits in Williams County
  • Zavanna: a Raven permit in McKenzie County
Fifteen producing wells (DUCs( reported as completed:
  • 33204, 1,934, Petroshale, P Petroshale US 13H, Danish, t5/19; cum 28K after 22 days; 
  • 35939, 2,239, Whiting, Nelsen 11-2HU, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35756, 2,581, Whiting,  Nelsen 11-2-1H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35757, 1,851, Whiting, Nelsen 11-2-2H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35822, 2,249, Whiting, Wahlstrom 21-3-4H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35823, 1,539, Whiting, Wahlstrom 21-3-3H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 32273, 797, Slawson, Submariner Federal 7-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35205, 818, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t7/19; cum --;
  • 35794, 700, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 6TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35795, 1,104, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 7H, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --; 
  • 35796, 700, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 8TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 29539, 4,635, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-2H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --;
  • 29787, 3,099, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-1TFH, Tyrone, t7/19; cum -;
  • 33335, 2,871, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-4H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --;
  • 33336, 3,047, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-5H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --; 
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Non-Bakken News

Huge inventory draw -- 10 million bbls. WTI falls almost 2%; falls almost a dollar / bbl; trading under $56/bbl.

Keeping America Great: Gasoline Demand, US Equities -- July 24, 2019

Link here.

Stock market, earnings, gasoline demand. Not one thing suggesting a recession.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think what you might have read here.


US equity markets: huge day. Take out BA and CAT, and the Dow would have been up 130 points, maybe more, based on the S&P 500.



Sedans? One word: done.

Ford: will invest $50 million in its Chicago operations to fund new models of its Explorer SUVs. Keeping America great. And the union workers will still vote against Trump. Whatever.

EVs: no one has thought this through. Or at least been brave enough to write about it.