Friday, July 19, 2019

Taxable Sales, 1Q19 -- North Dakota -- Western Counties Carrying The State

Updates

July 20, 2019: look closely at where the growth is.

Original Post 

Link her to story.
Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger announced ]that North Dakota’s taxable sales and purchases for the first quarter of 2019 are up nearly 10%. Taxable sales and purchases for January, February and March of 2019 were $4.453 billion, a 9.67% increase over those months in 2018.

“We are pleased to report good year-over-year increases for the past eight quarters, five of which have seen nearly 10% growth or more.” Rauschenberger said. “It was no surprise to see a significant increase in this report with oil production hitting an all-time record of 1.4 million barrels per day in January.”

Thirteen of the 15 major sectors reported taxable sales and purchases gains when compared to the first quarter a year ago. Most notably, the mining and oil extraction sector increased by $123.8 million (a 21.65% increase), the wholesale trade sector increased by $115.1 million (a 12.19% increase), and the retail trade sector increased by $68.4 million (a 5.39% increase).

“The retail trade sector showed an increase of 5.39% when compared to last year,” Rauschenberger stated. “This continues a recent trend of growth in this important sector. This is great news after several years of declines in this vital component of the state’s economy.”

Rauschenberger added that prior to the three most recent quarters, the state experienced at least ten quarters of declines in the retail trade sector.

Three of the state’s top six largest cities saw an increase in taxable sales and purchases for the first quarter, all of which are on the west side of the state. The state’s largest two cities saw no growth.

Percent changes for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) for the top six largest cities in North Dakota were as follows:
  • Williston – increase of 14.79%
  • Dickinson – increase of 11.69%
  • Minot – increase of 6.10%
  • Bismarck – decrease of 0.48%
  • Fargo – decrease of 0.61%
  • Grand Forks – decrease of 1.86%
Of the 50 largest cities in North Dakota, the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) were as follows:
  • Garrison – increase of 39.96%
  • Stanley – increase of 35.24%
  • Wishek – increase of 32.55%
  • Watford City – increase of 24.91%
  • Grafton – increase of 21.40%
Counties with the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) were as follows:
  • Logan County – increase of 96.48%
  • Burke County – increase of 70.90%
  • Mountrail County – increase of 41.02%
  • Slope County – increase of 29.41%
  • McIntosh County – increase of 25.58%
.Complete state data at this site, a pdf will download.

Bummer -- Gasoline Demand -- July 19, 2019

Updates

July 20, 2019: see comments. Nice comment from someone who really understands this stuff. Me? Not so much. LOL.

Original Post 

Link here.


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Natural Gas Fill Rate

Slight change in slope. Air conditioning?

Link here.


Think about it:


Think about it. Sure, Big Oil / Big NG is losing money on natural gas right. But America, as a country, is benefiting Big Time with all this cheap, dependable, dispatchable energy.

CLR Now Has Eleven Permits For Its LCU Jessie Pad In Long Creek -- July 19, 2019

Active rigs:
$56.017/19/201907/19/201807/19/201707/19/201607/19/2015
Active Rigs5568593073

Eight new permits, #36760 - 36767, inclusive:
  • Operator:  CLR
  • Fields: Long Creek (Williams);
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for another 8 wells on the  LCU Jessie pad in section 24-153-99, Long Creek oil field; see yesterday's daily activity report (three LCU Jessie permits); brings total to 11 permits for this pad;
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The CLR LCU Jessie Pad In Long Creek

Twelve wells, six will be middle Bakken wells; six will be first bench, Three Forks.

LCU: "Long Creek Unit"?

The parent well:
  • 19978, 1,001, CLR, Jessie 1-24H, Long Creek, t12/12; cum 276K 5/19;
The graphic:

Notes From All Over -- Part 3, July 19, 2019

Iran: seizes a British-flagged, Swedish-owned tanker. Said to be in retaliation for Brits seizing one of Iran's tankers. It's beyond me why any western-flagged tanker is going through the strait without overwhelming naval military protection. It's even more beyond me what Iran's long-term game plan is. Iran is irritating everyone -- not just the Brits or the US -- in the area -- including the other OPEC members in the Mideast.

WTI: flat.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2, July 19, 2019; KSU Beats

See this exuberant note on UNP from yesterday. The point of the post was that all that hand-wringing over the Chinese trade war may not be all that necessary. Earlier, pundits said that the trade war was the reason CSX reported poor earnings for 2Q19. But then UNP reported stellar earnings.

Now, the same for Kansas City Southern, beating estimates for 2Q19.

KSU: up 3.45% today.

From Benzinga:
  • earnings:
    • forecast: $1.61
    • actual: $1.64
    • beat by almost 2%; not headline worthy, but nice, just the same
  • revenue:
    • forecast: $706.23 million
    • actual: $714 million
    • beat by about 1%; again, no headline worthy, but better than the alternative (a decline, or even worse, a loss)
From the CEO, doing more with less (which seems to be a common theme this year):
The company is handling the same volume as last year with fewer assets, fewer crewstarts and considerably less network congestion, driving an improvement in customer service, operating metrics and cost profile,"
Keeping America great.

Heat wave, northeast US. A reader suggested I follow ISO New England and ISO New York. At 11:00 a.m. CT, July 19, 2019, a Friday morning:
  • New England: doing really, really well, under $20 (about $19.50 overall)
  • New York:
    • New York, Long Island: $50
    • New York, overall average: $36
    • New York, West-A: $71 (wow): I assume "West-A"is that part of ISONY west of / outside of NYC metropolitan area; this area, I believe, is highly dependent on natural gas, based on earlier reports, especially during the winter
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Iran

One comment: I honestly don't know what Iran is up to -- it seems "they" are doing everything they can to incite a military response from the US.  I understand that. I don't know what they hope to gain. Right now, it appears they are irritating their neighbors more than they are irritating Trump.             

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Now, For Something A Little Different

Tukka Laga Tukka Laga, Jagga Jasoos

Dueling videos. I mentioned that I enjoyed Gareth Gates' Spirit in the Sky. Arianna came back with Tukka Laga Tukka Laga.