Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Storage -- July 18, 2019

From twitter, source not linked:

In very round numbers:

• US storage: 500 million bbls
• Saudi storage: 250 million bbls
• global demand: 100 million bbls/day
• daily production:
• US: 12 million bopd
• Russia: 11 million bopd
• Saudi Arabia: 10 million bopd

Notes From All Over -- Part 1, July 18, 2019

Buzz. Lots of twitter talk (tweets) today about collapsing oil prices. To many, does not make sense.

Buzz. There was a note over at twitter today, "the US dollar is tanking." If the US dollar is tanking, all things being equal, the price of oil should increase.

From tradingeconomics:

EIA Explains The US Weekly Crude Oil "Adjustment" -- July 18, 2019

Updates

July 19, 2019: see first comment. The reader points out something incredibly important and something the EIA either purposely or inadvertently "forgot" to mention or point out.

In the EIA discussion, the EIA states: 

In recent weeks, the crude oil adjustment has been growing in absolute value, as high as 881,000 barrels for the week ending May 24. 

In my book, 881,000 bbls can be rounded to one million bbls. 

According to the reader the EIA omitted two incredibly important words, "per day." I've noted the change as it should have been written in bold red in the original post.

If that's accurate, it means we are talking about as much as 6.167 million bbls "adjustment" per week -- hardly trivial.

Original Post 

We've talked about this a couple of times. Sometime in the very recent past, the last month (?), the EIA has apparently changed its methodology for calculating US crude oil inventories.

And here it is, how timely, released yesterday by the EIA, released July 17, 2019, This Week In Petroleum, the crude oil "adjustment" accounts for differences in supply and disposition.

But it looks like this does not explain any change in methodology; it simply explains why "supply and disposition" seldom balance.

The EIA must have been getting a lot of phone calls from Wall Street analysts losing their shirts.

Link here.

The explanation begins:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) provides weekly estimates of U.S. crude oil supply, including a measure of how well the supply of crude oil and the disposition of crude oil balance with each other.

This measure—referred to as the adjustment—is a derived term equal to the difference between supply and disposition. If the reported supply and disposition of crude oil balanced perfectly each week, the adjustment would equal zero. For several reasons, however, this is rarely the case.

Weekly U.S. crude oil supply and disposition data are based on a combination of EIA survey data, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, and modeled estimates. All statistical samples using survey data have small but unavoidable imprecisions, and model estimated data’s precision can vary. This imprecision in estimating each element of the crude oil balance can result in some over- and under-estimation in both supply and disposition.

In recent weeks, the crude oil adjustment has been growing in absolute value, as high as 881,000 barrels [sic; see comment below] for the week ending May 24.

However, this is still relatively small, when compared with the entire U.S. crude oil balance, less than 2.5% on a rolling four-week average basis (the sum of production, imports, exports, and refinery inputs) (Figure 1 at the linked article).

Although an increased adjustment is, in some part, the result of the inherent challenge of estimating perfectly each reporting period, increasing volumes of U.S. crude oil production and exports and other factors may also play a role. EIA will continue to evaluate crude oil data to identify possible sources of the higher crude oil adjustment.

Re-Balancing -- July 18, 2019

EIA's crude oil "adjustment" methods. 

Re-balancing data for past 34 weeks:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9

Now why would I bring that up? LOL.

Because this was on twitter today:

This will be incredibly interesting to watch.

Place your bets now.

Disclaimer: this is not a betting site. Do not place any bets, wagers, guesses involving real money based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

MRO Came Close To Breaking All-Time 24-Hour IP Record; Nine New Bakken Permits -- July 18, 2019

Active rigs: 

$55.16	7/18/2019	07/18/2018	07/18/2017	07/18/2016	07/18/2015
Active Rigs	55	67	59	30	73

Nine new permits, #36751 - 36759, inclusive:

• Operators: Kraken Development III (4); CLR (3); Whiting (2)
• Fields: Sanish (Mountrail), Long Creek (Williams);
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for a 4-well family pad in section 10-154-92, Sanish oil field
• CLR has permits for a 3-well LCU Jessie pad in section 24-153-99, Long Creek oil field
• Whiting has permits for a 2-well Lillian Viola pad in section 12-154-92, Sanish oil field;

Okay, before reading any further, re-acquaint yourself with record IPs in the Bakken at this post.

One permit canceled:

• Equinor: a Marcia well in Williams County

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (I will have to update production data and other data later)

• 34859, 4,748, MRO, Rochelle USA 21-17TFH,  API: 33-061-04222, Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 41K over 18 days; extrapolates to 68,440 bbls over 30 days;
• 34862, 6,026, MRO, Turkey Feet USA 41-17TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 29K over 12 days; extrapolates to 71,010 bbls over 30 days;
• 34861, 5,243, MRO, Atkinson USA 31-17TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/19; 29K over 14 days; extrapolates to 62,104 bbls over 30 days;
• 34860, 7,889, MRO, Bruhn USA 21-17H, API: 33-061-04223; Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 64K over 20 days; extrapolates to 96,615 bbls over 30 days;
• 35323, 9,614, MRO, Driftwood USA 41-17H, Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 32K over 10 days; extrapolates to 96,270 bbls over 30 days;
• 34858, 4,866, MRO, Miriam USA 11-17H, Reunion Bay, t51/9; cum 40K over 20 days, extrapolates to 59,670 bbls over 30 days;
• 35462, 1,899, Whiting, Urban 44-11-3H, Reunion Bay, t6/19; cum --; 

I may do a stand-alone post for the MRO wells.

Frack data at the NDIC site not yet available.

From FracFocus:

• 34859, 33-061-04222: 7,463,738 gallons of water (moderate amount, not out of hte ordinary); 90%water in the frack
• 34860, 33-061-04223: 10,288,478 gallons of water (upper end, but not a record); 91% water;