Thursday, April 25, 2019

Early Evening Rambling -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 25, 2019

It's 10:15 p.m. CT; I'm laying here listening to the Lana Del Rey's entire catalogue.

There will be nothing about the Bakken here. In fact there will be nothing of interest to anyone but me. For the archives; helps put things in perspective when I look back to see what was going on other than the Bakken at this point in time.

Alexa: I sound like a broken record -- no pun intended -- but Alexa is the best thing since sliced bread. I love Alexa. Can't imagine not having it. It started out as a gift from our older daughter; we have three Echo Dots in our small two-bedroom apartment -- the entire apartment is smaller than Algore's master bedroom walk-in closet. I might get two more Echo Dots. For Amazon, multiple revenue streams from the Echo Dots.

Amazon: I order "stuff" on Amazon and less than two days later it shows up on my doorstep. Amazon will deliver even more quickly if necessary.

Lana Del Rey: I am unaware of any songwriter / singer who writes more personal songs. It is amazing what she is willing to share.

Summer sadness. Sophia happened to hear this song on the radio on the way into Tutor Time. Sophia asked if the singer was sad when she sang this song. Wow. That from a four-year-old; will be five this summer.

Sophia: I pick her up from Tutor Time around 5:30 p.m. I would pick her up earlier but she wants to play with her friends. After picking her up, we bike in the park; she plays with her friends in the apartment complex; we stop to play with dogs in the neighborhood. By the time I get her back home it's 9:00 p.m. and an hour later I already miss her.

Hemingway: said he wrote from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon and was quite "religious" about those hours. He said he planned to quit writing at 12:00 noon every day but he would not quit until he had an idea for the next day's writing. That way he never suffered from writer's block. When he quit writing at noon, he knew what he was going to write the next day, so that when he started writing at 8:00 a.m. the next day he was ready to go.

The market: I've never been in such a good mood during the middle of earnings season. More of that tomorrow.

Schwab: I assume there are a dozen different ways to invest and everyone has his/her favorite. But what little I know about the investment world, it's hard to beat Schwab. Schwab has introduced the personal financial advisor for a flat fee of $30/month. It's a game-changer. Regardless of size of portfolio, a flat fee of $360/year. If you think that's not a game changer see what your ML fees are.

Schwab investment luncheon: our Schwab investment advisor hosts investment luncheons once monthly. She invites twelve of her clients, and that's it. Incredible seminars and a free catered Mexican luncheon.

Schwab is building a huge "Schwab center" west of Grapevine, north of Ft Worth. It's in Westlake, TX. Might be the biggest "Schwab center" in the US. Originally slated to have 3,000+ employees, it is now likely to have more than 5,000 employees. I've talked with a day trader who now works in the IT division of Schwab, helping to develop algorithms. His enthusiasm is contagious.

Trump: ever since Trump was elected my life has been hell. My wife supports open borders. I don't. My wife supports increased federal income taxes; I don't. She thought Beto was the best thing since sliced bread (sorry about that, using that twice in one blog) until she realized how dumb he was. Then she supported Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Julio Castro, in that order ... except the "mayor" is now her favorite. As I was saying, my life has been hell since Trump was elected. I've given up. LOL.

Sports: Texans take their sports very seriously. Our middle granddaughter had a middle school soccer game, but at the half she had to leave to go to soccer practice with her "club" team. Two to three hours of soccer every night except Friday, it seems; and, then games on the weekend.  Our middle granddaughter has taught Sophia, the four-year-old how to stop a soccer ball ("tap it") and then kick the soccer ball off the side of her foot. By the way our middle granddaughter's school soccer team is #1 in its "division." They beat their neighborhood rival last night, 4 - 0. Our middle granddaughter is the only player on the team that is also a "club" player.

NFL draft. It was interesting to hear the ABC folks "blow off'" the assault incident by the #19 pick; the assault on a woman, apparently, was caught on film. I didn't see the video, but "they" went on for quite some time saying how he had "redeemed" himself. Eleven NFL teams took that player off the table; no matter how good he was, eleven NFL teams refused to consider him. The Tennessee Titans and ABC had no qualms, apparently. Whatever. At the end of the day, thugs. But that's not to say I don't enjoy watching the NFL on occasion. Generally during the playoffs.

Agenda For NDIC Hearing Dockets Agenda For May, 2019, Has Been Posted

Tuesday, May 14, 2019: link here
Wednesday, May 22, 2019: link here. Six pages.
Thursday, May 23, 2019: link here. Ten pages.

I will post summary later.

If links above are incorrect, go to this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/docketindex.asp.

Hess 1Q19 Earnings Beat On Bakken Production Volumes -- April 25, 2019

Link here.

Holy mackerel: the consensus was for Hess to show a loss of 26 cents/share.

In fact, Hess reported earnings of 9 cents/share.

We'll discuss that later.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

HES: jumps 2.07% in after-hours trading; up $1.33; trading at $65.51.

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Ford

Ford crushes estimates. Came in at 44 cents vs estimates of 27 cents. Shares surge.

Purely Political -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 25, 2019

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. But I think most readers will get the gist of the essay.

I've gone back and forth on this over the past few months: whether Hillary Clinton could clinch the Democratic nomination for president.

Earlier, at best, I thought it was 50-50 that she could show up at the DNC nomination convention and get the nomination on the second (or later) vote (following a failed first vote to elect a nominee, i.e., a brokered convention).

I think the chances of that happening have risen significantly. Perhaps not as high as a 95% chance that it could happen vs a 5% chance that it won't happen but I certainly think the possibility is there. So, perhaps, for the sake of argument, I will suggest a 60 - 40 chance that she will show up at the DNC convention and get the nomination if/when the delegates fail to nominate Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders on the first round of voting.

This is the rationale, which I posted earlier today, under my "daily note" linked at the sidebar at the right, with editing:
I was waiting to see if anyone noted the timing. It takes a few days to "reserve" one's spot in the op-ed of any newspaper. It was telegraphed a few days ago that Joe Biden would announce his candidacy on Thursday, April 25, 2019. As a courtesy, he may have even told Mr Obama and even, possibly Hillary a few days ago. Hold that thought.
He made his announcement at oh-dark-thirty via a video which was released at the very same time the morning edition of the Washington Post was being delivered across Washington, DC.
On the very day that Biden announced his candidacy, Hillary Clinton has her op-ed in the Washington Post. [April 25, 2019]

From her op-ed in the Washington Post this morning, the very day (actually the very hour) that Joe Biden announced, this sounds like a woman who wants to jump back into the race:
Clinton continued in the [Washington Post op-ed] piece to call on Congress to “hold substantive hearings that build on the Mueller report and fill in its gaps,” and said the country needs “clear-eyed patriotism, not reflexive partisanship.” 
I could be wrong but "clear-eyed patriotism" is a(n) euphemism that has been applied to Hillary Clinton. 

The chances of a brokered convention are much higher this time than in 2016: there is no clear-cut favorite (Bernie vs Biden, both at 30%, with very, very unwavering support among that 30% -- the Bernie supporters are not going to abandon Bernie in the primaries and I doubt Biden's supporters will move to Bernie). At best they each get 40%, well short of that needed to win at the convention. And that could go on for several rounds of voting.

In addition, after the 2016 DNC nominating convention, the whole issue of super-delegates was changed, and to the best of my knowledge, these super-delegates will not have as much control/power as they did when Hillary was running. Many suggest that Bernie wold have beaten Hillary in a "fair" campaign.

Without question, Hillary is scrolling through her Rolodex, calling "her" delegates, telling them to keep the faith and that if either Bernie or Biden does not win on the first vote, she would appreciate their support. The downside to this argument: if she is calling those delegates, someone will leak that to the press. But she can always hold those calls until much closer to the convention.

Even without those phone calls, her op-ed reassured her base that she was still "in the fight." 

The timing will have to be perfect. If it's a brokered convention, and Hillary is "late," the majority of non-Biden, non-Bernie delegates will move to Biden. If there is no turmoil after the first vote, and they proceed quickly to a second vote, Hillary won't have the time to get on stage. But if we go to a third, fourth, or fifth vote, and the convention starts to get unruly, I can see Hillary (and Bill) suddenly walking out on stage. [For conspiracy theorists, I think Obama/Clinton will control the DNC convention and can stage-manage her entrance.]

The person who should be most upset by the timing of Hillary's Washington Post op-ed is Joe Biden. Again, Hillary sucked all the oxygen out of the room on the day he announced.

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Family Commitments May Preclude 
Any More Blogging Until Late This Evening

ONEOK Making The Bakken Better -- To Extend Bakken NGL Pipeline -- April 25, 2019

Press release, data points:
  • $100 million project
  • 75-mile extension
  • NGL pipeline
  • will connect the northern portion of the Bakken NGL Pipeline with a third-party NG processing plant in eastern Williams County
  • should be complete by 4Q20